Substacks
The $14 billion question Judd Legum
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which killed 2,977 victims, there was a tremendous and justifiable desire for the government to take action against those responsible. On October 7, 2001, the United States and its allies launched “Operation Enduring Freedom.” By mid-November, through an extensive bombing campaign and ground invasion, United States-led forces were able to topple the Taliban government, which harbored the Al Qaeda terrorists responsible for the 9/11 attacks. The United Nations was brought in to help establish an interim government.
On October 16, 2002, 9/11 was cited as the justification for the Congressional authorization of military force against Iraq. Among other things, the resolution stated that Iraq continues to “possess and develop a significant chemical and biological weapons capability.” The United States began military operations against Iraq on March 20, 2003. Within a few weeks, the regime of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had collapsed. On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush (R) stood behind a “Mission Accomplished” banner and declared that “major combat operations in Iraq have ended.”
In both cases, the initial military objectives were accomplished quickly. But leaders did not fully consider the question: what’s next?
U.S. combat against the Taliban in Afghanistan continued for nearly two decades. The lengthy conflict claimed the lives of 6,294 American service members and contractors, 66,000 members of the allied Afghan military and security forces, and 47,245 Afghan civilians. When the United States finally withdrew the last of its forces in August 2021, the Taliban immediately re-established control.
In Iraq, U.S. forces maintained a presence until 2011. The operation resulted in the deaths of 8,160 American service members and contractors, 50,000 allied Iraqi forces, and 200,000 or more Iraqi civilians. No weapons of mass destruction were found, and Hussein’s regime had no involvement in 9/11.
Both operations, which produced few tangible benefits, also had massive financial costs. According to Brown University’s Watson Institute, the direct cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was $2.2 trillion. Since the wars were financed with debt, the total cost could exceed $4 trillion by 2030 and $6.5 trillion by 2050.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israeli towns on the border of Gaza, killing at least 1,400 people and taking more than 200 hostages. President Biden described the attack, due to Israel’s smaller size, as equivalent to “15 9/11s.” Biden noted that the deaths tapped into a “kind of primal feeling in Israel, just like it did… in the United States.” Israel’s response has been unsparing, blanketing Gaza in airstrikes. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, 4,385 Gazans have been killed as of October 21. There is also a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza after Israel cut off most sources of electricity and water. Israel also ordered more than 1 million Palestinians in Gaza in the northern part of the territory to evacuate south. On Saturday, Israel permitted the first shipments of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza but those supplies only represent a small fraction of what is needed.
In an Oval Office address Friday night, Biden announced he was sending to Congress “an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs [and] to support our critical partners, including Israel.” The request includes “$14.3 billion in aid for Israel,” which would be in addition to the approximately $3 billion in military aid the United States provides to Israel annually. (The $105 billion budget request also includes tens of billions in aid to Ukraine.)
The money earmarked for Israel includes about $10 billion in direct military aid that will fund both “more air and missile defense support” and “munitions.” The request, the White House says, does not specify what munitions the Department of Defense will provide Israel. Ariel Cohen, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, says Israel has a particular need for “bombs that can penetrate the reinforced concrete of Hamas structures in Gaza” and “air tankers, which are crucial to extending the range of Israel’s air force.” Biden’s request also lifts the cap on direct weapons transfers from the U.S. to Israel, which could push the total amount of military assistance higher.
Biden said the money “will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge” and “make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever.”
But one question Biden did not answer is: what’s next?
According to reports, Israeli officials will “soon” launch a ground invasion. “You now see Gaza from afar, soon you will see it from the inside,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops on the front line. “The order will come.” Gallant says the Israeli military is in the “first phase” of a three-part operation. The initial phase includes airstrikes and a ground invasion “with the purpose of destroying operatives and damaging infrastructure in order to defeat and destroy Hamas.” The second phase “will be continued fighting but at a lower intensity as troops work to ‘eliminate pockets of resistance.'” The final phase involves “the creation of a new security regime in the Gaza Strip, the removal of Israel’s responsibility for day-to-day life in the Gaza Strip.”
The final step, which involves ending the conflict, is much easier said than done. In many respects, what Israel is attempting to do in Gaza is more difficult than what the United States attempted to do in Afghanistan and Iraq. In both of those countries, there were factions that were generally supportive of America’s presence — the Shiites and Kurds in Iraq and the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. But there are no significant number of Palestinians in Gaza who will welcome an Israeli occupying force. And any “security regime” established by the Israelis will likely be viewed with extreme skepticism, at best, by the people of Gaza.
Previous attempts at a ground invasion of Gaza by Israeli forces are a cautionary tale. In 2014, Israeli forces engaged in a battle in Gaza City. The conflict “killed more than 1,600 innocent bystanders and wounded more than 10,000 in a little more than a month.” But “Israel eventually retreat[ed] with no significant strategic victories.” The dense urban environment in much of Gaza makes for an extraordinarily challenging battlefield.
Former President Bush, who set the strategy for the United States invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, has expressed support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive approach. Bush described himself as “a hardliner” and encouraged Israel to take “whatever actions [are] necessary to defend herself.” Bush acknowledged that “[i]t’s going to be ugly for a while because “going into the neighborhoods of Gaza is going to be tough.” But, according to Bush, there are no other options for Netanyahu. “[H]e’s got to do what he’s got to do,” Bush said. In a video obtained by Axios, Bush does not describe how he envisions the conflict ending.
In an October 15, 2023 interview on 60 Minutes, Biden said that it would be “a mistake to… for Israel to occupy… Gaza again.” But now, Biden is proposing more than $14 billion to aid Israeli operations in Gaza which appears to include a ground invasion. Israel’s position is a paradox. Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, said that Israel has “no interest” in an occupation. But Israeli officials have simultaneously warned operations in Gaza “will be lengthy.”
According to the New Yorker, “senior Israeli officials told the Americans [visiting Israel] to expect a war that could last as long as ten years.” If that’s the case — and the United States remains committed to helping finance Israel’s war effort — $14 billion will only be a small down payment. And, in light of the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is no guarantee that the situation in Gaza will be any better after many years of war.
In his remarks during his visit to Israel last week, Biden acknowledged that, in its response to 9/11, the United States “made mistakes.” Two decades later, is the United States repeating the same mistakes in its efforts to back Israel?
Yesterday, U.S. officials arrested Ismael Zambada García, or “El Mayo,” cofounder of the violent and powerful drug trafficking organization the Sinaloa Cartel, and Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of its other cofounder. That other cofounder, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, or “El Chapo,” is already incarcerated in the U.S., as are another of El Chapo’s sons, alleged cartel leader Ovidio Guzmán López, and the cartel’s alleged lead hitman, Néstor Isidro Pérez Salas, or “El Nini.”
In a statement, Attorney General Merrick Garland said: “Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat our country has ever faced, and the Justice Department will not rest until every single cartel leader, member, and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable.” El Mayo has been charged with drug trafficking and money laundering.
U.S. officials exploited rifts in the cartel to get Guzmán López to bring El Mayo in. The successful and peaceful capture of the two Sinaloa Cartel leaders contrasts with Trump’s insistence that the U.S. must bomb or invade Mexico to damage the cartels, a position echoed by Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance and increasingly popular in the Republican Party. Mexico, which is America’s biggest trade partner, staunchly opposes such an intervention. Opponents note that such military action would do nothing to decrease demand for illegal drugs in the U.S. and would increase the numbers of asylum-seekers at the border as their land became a battleground.
Trump seems to think that governance is about dominance, but that approach often runs afoul of the law. Today the Justice Department reached a $2 million settlement with former FBI counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and former FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who became the butt of Trump’s attacks after their work on the FBI investigation into the ties between the 2016 Trump campaign and Russian operatives. Trump’s Department of Justice released text messages between the two journalists. Today’s settlement appears to reflect that the release likely violated the Privacy Act, which bars the government from disclosing personal information.
Tonight, speaking to Christians at the Turning Point Action Believers’ Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump made his plans to become a strongman clear: “Get out and vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what: it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians…. Get out, you’ve got to get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”
This chilling statement comes after Trump praised autocratic Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán in his speech at the Republican National Convention last week and then publicly praised China’s president Xi Jinping for being “brilliant” because he “controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist.” It should also be read against the backdrop of the Supreme Court’s decision in Donald J. Trump v. United States that a president cannot be prosecuted for crimes committed as part of his “official duties.”
The Harris campaign reacted to Trump’s dark statements by ridiculing them, and him: “Tonight, Donald Trump couldn’t pronounce words [he mispronounced “landslide” as “land slade], insulted the faith of Jewish and Catholic Americans, lied about the election (again), lied about other stuff, bragged about repealing Roe, proposed cutting billions in education funding, announced he would appoint more extremist judges, revealed he planned to fill a second Trump term with more criminals like himself, attacked lawful voting, went on and on and on, and generally sounded like someone you wouldn’t want to sit near at a restaurant—let alone be President of the United States.
“America can do better than the bitter, bizarre, and backward looking delusions of criminal Donald Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris offers a vision for America’s future focused on freedom, opportunity, and security.”
Harris continually refers to Trump as a criminal in her speeches, but her campaign has taken the approach of referring to him and J.D. Vance as weirdos. On Tuesday, Minnesota governor Tim Walz said, “These guys are just weird.” Senators Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Brian Schatz of Hawaii recorded a video together about Vance’s “super weird,” “bananas,” and “offensive” idea that people with children should be assigned additional votes for each child, making their wishes count more than people without children.
As J.D. Vance continues to step on rakes, the “weird” label seems correctly to label the MAGAs as outside the mainstream of American thought. Today, Vance doubled down on his denigration of women who have not given birth as “childless cat ladies” but assured voters he has nothing against cats. In addition, a video surfaced of Vance calling for the federal government to stop women in Republican-dominated states from crossing state lines to obtain abortions.
Mychael Schnell of The Hill reported today that while MAGA Republican lawmakers like Vance, a number of House Republicans are bashing his selection as the vice presidential candidate. “He was the worst choice of all the options,” one said. “It was so bad I didn’t even think it was possible.”
“The prevailing sentiment is if Trump loses, [it’s] because of this pick,” another said, a sentiment that suggests Vance will be a scapegoat if Trump loses. Considering what happened to Trump’s last vice president after Trump blamed him for an election loss, Vance might have reason to be concerned.
Last night’s “Answer the Call” Zoom has now raised more than $8.5 million for Harris; the organizers thanked Win With Black Women “for showing us how it’s done.” Today the Future Forward PAC, which had threatened to hold back $90 million in spending if Biden stayed at the head of the ticket, began large advertising purchases in swing states for Harris.
Carl Quintanilla of CNBC reported that a week ago, those on a phone call of more than 400 people from Bank of America’s Federal Government Relations Team believed that a Trump victory was a “foregone conclusion.” Now that conviction is gone. “[T]here’s been a palpable sentiment reversal.”
The Harris campaign announced that it will launch 2,600 more volunteers into its ground game in Florida, a state where abortion rights will be on the ballot this fall, likely turning out voters for the Democratic ticket. The volunteers will write postcards, make phone calls, and knock on doors.
Today, Vice President Kamala Harris filled out the paperwork officially declaring her candidacy for president of the United States.
Notes:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/25/us/sinaloa-cartel-ismael-zambada-custody-report/index.html
https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/mexico-surpasses-china-us-biggest-trading-partner-exports/
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/peter-strzok-lawsuit-settlement-00171498
https://www.vox.com/culture/363230/jd-vance-couch-sex-hillbilly-elegy-rumor-false
https://thehill.com/homenews/4793818-vance-vp-trump-house-republicans/
https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)
X:
Acyn/status/1817007890496102490
Acyn/status/1816993825929461860
Victorshi2020/status/1817024584425619737
JoshRaby/status/1815889888207892619
EJDionne/status/1816923327048613906
shannonrwatts/status/1816882297595150756
JacobRubashkin/status/1816859976444338479
KamalaHarris/status/1816998711056052463
EdwardGLuce/status/1816814101823131803
carlquintanilla/status/1816848322050642373
ArtCandee/status/1816935834500657185
NewsHour/status/1816964874120974349
Oh, no, it’s the sister again, for another slow news week. Let’s get to it.
→ Biden dropped out: Six years ago emotionally, but technically this past Sunday, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. He did it via X and promptly threw his support (and cash) behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Then he got Covid and hunkered down in Delaware—or depending on what hooch you’ve been drinking, died and was reanimated so he could appear before the cameras on Wednesday to address the nation. Joe’s family, including Hunter, sat along the wall of the Oval Office as he spoke. The president talked about the cancer moonshot, ending the war in Gaza, putting the party over himself, and Kamala’s tenacity, as Kamala’s pistol dug ever-so-slightly harder into his back. Right after, Jill, the First Lady of passive aggression, who apparently wanted to outdo her heart emoji, tweeted a handwritten note “to those who never wavered, to those who refused to doubt, to those who always believed.” I respect a First Lady who stands by her man and her energetic stepson. A First Lady who sees the high road way up there and says to herself, “If they want us out of here so bad, they can clean out the fridge and strip the beds themselves!”
→ Kamala is brat, Biden is boots, please God send the asteroid today: I’ve learned the hard way—and by that I mean my parents once asked me what “WAP” meant—that certain things should never be explained with words. It’s not that it’s impossible, it’s just that it embarrasses everyone.
That’s how I feel about the whole Kamala-is-brat thing. Brat is a good album about partying and getting older and having anxiety that was released earlier this summer by Charli XCX. But it’s since been adopted by too-online and very young people as a personality, and by Kamala Harris’s campaign as a mode to relate to those very young people. Her campaign is leaning into the whole green look of the album to try and win over Gen Z, and generally recasting her many viral moments—“You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?” “I love Venn diagrams” “What can be, unburdened but what has been”—as calling cards. It’s like when Hillary went on Broad City, only this time more cringe.
And now we have Jake Tapper and Greg Gutfeld grappling with the “essence” and the “aesthetic” and overall vibe of brat girl summer. We used to be a serious country. We used to make things.
Here’s the thing about Kamla: she is hilarious and campy, but unintentionally so. Any goodwill that her goofy dances or weird turns of phrase garner should be considered bonus points, not game play. Was there ever any doubt that Fire Island would go blue? We’ve been debating whether Kamala’s meme campaign is a good move for her prospects in the Free Press Slack, and here I’ll borrow from my older and wiser colleague Peter Savodnik: “There is nothing more pathetic than an older person who cares what a younger person thinks is cool.”
→ Boomer behavior: While Kamala’s campaign is being run by a 24-year-old twink with an Adderall prescription, J.D. Vance’s speechwriter seems to be a drunk Boomer who just got kicked out of a 7-11. Vance, appearing this week at a rally in Middletown, Ohio, riffed, “Democrats say that it is racist to believe. . . well, they say it’s racist to do anything. I had a Diet Mountain Dew yesterday and one today, and I’m sure they’re going to call that racist too.” Crickets. Horror. Major “Thanks, Obama” energy. There was also a bit on fried bologna sandwiches and a lot of “lemme tell you another story.” The guy is 39 but sounds older than Biden.
Fresher, 35-to-60-year-old blood is exactly what we’ve been begging for. Let the Boomers boom, let the Zoomers zoom. Kamala and J.D.: act your age.
July 26, 2024 Heather Cox Richardson
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