Crypto News
The Time To Leave X(Twitter) Is Now
Bitcoin Twitter has been an exciting place over the last year as the Nostr and Ordinals protocols became the new up-and-coming protocols on the scene.
Ordinals exposed a fault line starting to form within the Bitcoin community. The ossifiers class that wants to keep Bitcoin the way it is versus the builders that want to explore and create new use cases for Bitcoin has turned into two distinct camps that will never reconcile their differences.
This has yet to happen with the NOSTR protocol. Capital has been pouring into development from some of the most well-known entities in Bitcoin. Primal, a nostr-focused client, recently secured $1 million in funding from Ten31 and Hivemind. Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, has pledged $10 million to spur the development of the nostr protocol. Despite these positive developments, there hasn’t been a mass exodus of Bitcoiners from X, formerly known as Twitter, to the freedom protocol. Why is that?
I’m shocked that most Bitcoiners have decided to stay behind the barbed wire fence of mass surveillance and have their data continually harvested for the benefit of Elon Musk.
The door to freedom is right before us, yet many decide to stay, but why?
For all the talk about incentives matter, the average Bitcoiner has fallen into the same social media trap that every other nocoiner has found themselves in. Here are a few reasons I believe Bitcoiners on X resist leaving the platform.
Network Effects Are A Hell Of A Drug
This is one of the main reasons why the most prominent voices on Twitter have yet to make the jump to being nostr only. X has been around much longer than the nostr protocol and is used by millions of people around the globe. If you are a Bitcoiner who has spent years building a massive Twitter following, it must be tough to migrate to a new platform with a much smaller user base and requires some technical knowledge to set up. It is easy to understand the rationale for staying on Twitter. There is too much to lose from a business perspective to make the jump.
By making this decision, they are missing an opportunity to introduce their audience to nostr and the idea of freedom tech in general. Staying on Twitter doesn’t advance the mission of hyperbitcoinization because it perpetuates the usage of centralized communications platforms and undermines the message of freedom. Twitter might have a more extensive user base than Nostr, but when you look deeper at the numbers, it doesn’t mean anything.
In the same survey, 25 percent of users said they would not be on the platform a year from now. That’s a lot of people who will not learn about Bitcoin from X.
Usage of the app continues to decline year over year with no end in sight. Worldwide visits to Twitter.com dropped 7.3 percent year over year. Monthly active users on Android and iOS are down 15 percent for Android and 14 percent for iOS. X is on a slow-motion decline, so the argument that Bitcoiners should stay on X because it’s more effective for orange pilling nocoiners doesn’t hold water. Nocoiners are fleeing X in droves.
We also know social media companies are used to control and influence society worldwide. How can we advocate for separating money and state when we can’t even leave our Twitter accounts behind? Here are a few examples of the state using centralized social media platforms to its advantage:
https://therecord.media/ukraine-police-raid-social-media-bot-farmhttps://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/despite-western-bans-putins-propaganda-flourishes-spanish-tv-and-social-mediahttps://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/more-governments-ever-are-using-social-media-push-propaganda-report-n1076301
X certainly doesn’t free humanity from the clutches of the surveillance state in any way; it traps us in a digital panopticon with no escape. If the goal is hyperbitcoinization, we should do everything possible to erode the state’s power. Staying on X empowers the government by giving them unlimited access to our data. You might lose followers and money in the short term, but it’s worth it. Short-term pain for long-term gain should be the priority. We are doing this for the kids, right?
Dopamine Hits Feelz Good
Image source
Who doesn’t like posting a tweet and watching it go viral on Bitcoin Twitter? It gives you the massive dopamine rush that social media was designed for. This is why most of us keep coming back to Twitter in the first place. We want that dopamine mang! Think of Twitter as the drug dealer on the corner giving you all the dopamine you want. It’s available on your phone 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
It has been clinically proven that when you receive a notification or retweet, your brain experiences an increased level of dopamine, further positively reinforcing the need to use social media. Did you know nearly 40 percent of those aged 18-22 reported feeling addicted to social media?
The engineers at X clearly understand this issue and have designed their platform to encourage people to stay there as long as possible. They are no fools. This is how they make money. I am guilty of scrolling away on X, but we all should be conscious of what they are trying to do.
Not saying nostr is the panacea to this problem, but the protocol doesn’t have the mind-altering algos that are trying to keep you addicted to the protocol. Is it fair to say that nostr is better for your mental health? Just throwing that out there.
We Need To Live Our Values
This picture is the one that hit me the most and inspired me to write this article. As Bitcoiners, how can we rail against big tech and the surveillance state if we continue to use the tools the state uses to suppress free speech? How will we rally people to the cause of Bitcoin if we don’t live by the very ideas we espouse to the world?
Using Twitter is, but one compromise, but one leads to another and another. We all live in a world of trade-offs. We should all strive for a world where freedom tech is the norm and not an exception. In general, Bitcoin and freedom tech have allowed us to remake the world and orient it towards peace and cooperation and away from the war, death, and destruction that the psychopaths in political office want to inflict on the common man.
Remember that the rich and powerful are not on our side. I urge all Bitcoiners to use nostr and slowly transition away from big tech because you never know when you will lose access to your data and all your hard work.
Here is my pubkey if you want to chat using freedom tech! I look forward to seeing you over there! Escape to freedom.
npub1cl4deuxsxk2ldqgq85q9xfn898253qjyfcrcnkqd2wdks7ppu43qn0gu8k
Bitcoiners understand that the centralization of money is bad for society, yet they use centralized social media platforms.
Crypto News
Half Way Through The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin has historically followed a familiar four-year cycle. Now, two years into the current cycle, investors are closely watching patterns and market indicators for insights into what the next two years may hold. This article dives into the anatomy of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, past market behavior, and future possibilities.
The 4 Year Cycle
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is partly influenced by the scheduled halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive by 50% every four years. This halving decreases the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, often creating supply-demand pressures that can push prices higher.
This can be clearly visualized by the Stock-to-Flow Model, which compares the existing BTC in circulation to its inflationary rate, and models a ‘fair-value’ based on comparable hard assets such as Gold and Silver.
Currently, we’re midway through this cycle, meaning we are potentially entering a period of exponential gains as the typical one year catch-up phase following the halving progresses.
A Look Back at 2022
Two years ago, Bitcoin faced a severe crash amid a series of corporate implosions. November 2022 marked the downfall of FTX, as rumors of insolvency triggered massive sell-offs. The domino effect was brutal, as other crypto institutions, such as BlockFi, 3AC, Celsius, and Voyager Digital, also went under.
Bitcoin’s price tumbled from around $20,000 to $15,000, mirroring the broader market panic and leaving investors worried about Bitcoin’s survival. However, true to form, Bitcoin rallied again, climbing back up fivefold from the 2022 lows. Investors who weathered the storm were rewarded, and this rebound supports the argument that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains intact.
Similar Sentiment
In addition to price patterns, investor sentiment also follows a predictable rhythm across each cycle. Analyzing the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), a metric showing unrealized gains and losses in the market, suggests that emotions like euphoria, fear, and capitulation repeat regularly. Bitcoin investors typically face intense feelings of fear or pessimism during each bear market, only to shift back toward optimism and euphoria as prices recover and rise. Currently, we’re once again entering the ‘Belief’ stage following our early cycle runup and subsequent consolidation.
The Global Liquidity Cycle
The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2015 and 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Following these periods of economic contraction, we see fiscal expansion across central banks and governments everywhere, which leads to more favorable conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.
Familiar Patterns
Historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to previous cycles. From its lows, Bitcoin usually takes around 24-26 months to break past previous highs. In the last cycle, it took 26 months; in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price is on a similar upward trajectory after 24 months. Bitcoin has historically peaked about 35 months after its lows. If this pattern holds, we may see significant price increases through October 2025, after which another bear market could set in.
Following the anticipated peak, history suggests Bitcoin would enter a bear phase in 2026, lasting roughly one year until the next cycle begins anew. These patterns aren’t a guarantee but provide a roadmap that Bitcoin has adhered to in previous cycles. They offer a potential framework for investors to anticipate and adapt to the market.
Conclusion
Despite challenges, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has endured, largely due to its supply schedule, global liquidity, and investor psychology. As such, the four-year cycle remains a valuable tool for investors to interpret potential price movements in Bitcoin and our base case for the rest of this cycle. However, relying solely on this cycle could be shortsighted. By incorporating on-chain metrics, liquidity analysis, and real-time investor sentiment, data-driven approaches can help investors respond effectively to changing conditions.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle – Half Way Done?
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Rhythm: Mid-Cycle Insights and What Investors Should Expect
Crypto News
Don’t Lose Sight Of The Bitcoin Mission
Now that Trump has been elected, Bitcoin enthusiasts and companies alike are more optimistic about the future of Bitcoin in the United States. We can clearly see this reflected in the price of bitcoin, which continues to reach new all-time highs in the wake of the election.
While it’s exciting for to watch US Bitcoiners breathe something of a collective sigh of relief as bitcoin’s price pumps (which is important), it’s also essential to recognize that we that if we don’t stay vigilant and lose our ability to transact privately and as anonymously as possible with bitcoin, as some are rightfully suggesting could easily happen, then we will have failed in our mission.
Former presidential advisor Pippa Malmgren on the legalization of Bitcoin:
“If you make crypto and Bitcoin legal […] you can’t hold them anonymously, you have to declare them.”
“You’re not going to be able to escape the reach of the US Government. […] And because we’re in… pic.twitter.com/aVeZBKodQ4
— L0la L33tz (@L0laL33tz) November 8, 2024
While it seems that the Trump administration will be kinder to the Bitcoin and broader crypto industry than the Biden administration was, we still have little idea of what the regulatory details will look like under the incoming administration. Plus, the judge in the Tornado Cash case recently posited that the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) doesn’t require control of funds (private keys) for money transmission, which means that we may soon see legal precedent that sets the stage for much greater AML/KYC requirements for Bitcoin users.
Main points of the @TornadoCash ruling (so far):
(1) BSA doesn’t require control for money transmission
(2) 2019 guidance doesn’t have broad control requirement for money transmission, and “total independent control” is merely one part of a four-factor test specific to the… https://t.co/1rnB2SCVpA— Zack Shapiro (@zackbshapiro) September 26, 2024
If we don’t support efforts to legally defend our right to transact peer-to-peer without having to provide identifying information, then we’ll have lost one of Bitcoin’s core value propositions.
So, by all means, celebrate the fact that the incoming administration supports things like Bitcoin mining in the US and the right to hold your private keys, but stay vigilant in regards to what both the administration and the courts say about the need to provide identifying information to use bitcoin — and get ready to push back.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Fighting for transaction privacy needs to remain at the core of why we’re here.
Crypto News
Democrats Must Embrace Bitcoin To Survive
I, like many of you, am processing the results of the recent U.S. election in which Donald Trump won handily both the electoral college and popular vote. As pundits discuss, left mainstream media personalities mourn, and yes many Trump supporters cheer ecstatically, as a progressive Bitcoiner it’s entirely clear to me: If the Democratic Party wants a future in America, it must embrace Bitcoin.
Let me explain what I mean. Not only do I think is it imperative for the party to embrace Bitcoin if it wants to survive, but after this decisive Trump victory, I think many within the party, and those independent voters who dip in and out of voting for democratic candidates, are looking to make a drastic change and go back to the drawing board.
Bernie is back, and he has something to say.
It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.
While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change.
And they’re right. pic.twitter.com/lM2gSJmQFL
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) November 6, 2024
Now that Biden’s term is coming to a close, and Harris conceded the race in defeat, Bernie isn’t mincing words with his criticism of the democratic party and priorities. “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.” Many within the party, and former Bernie supporters who perhaps are not in the party or supportive any longer, have been beating this drum for a while: Democrats favor coastal elites, who opine about progressive politics and “wokism” intellectually, while paying lip-service (and patronizing various other minority groups) to working class americans. After losing to Donald Trump twice, many democrats, progressives, and certainly independent and democratic american voters are wondering, where do we go from here?
Trump is a tour de force. A charismatic figure that has truly altered the course of American politics in ways the GOP, strategists, journalists, and the political establishment never thought was possible. The democratic party has been struggling to come up with answers against Trump and MAGA populism after 2016. While mainstream media may continue to cast his victories as the product of racism, sexism, or other beliefs steeped in identity politics, the same they did in 2016, many within the party are accepting that the strategies around identity politics, anti-Trump, and some moral high ground are decisively ineffective.
While we all will be analyzing data, voter profiles, trends, etc over the next several months, many journalists, including some quite influential progressive leaning media outlets including Pod Save America, Breaking Points, and beyond conceded that the Democratic Party must return to being the party of working people and focus on the economy and inflation, which was one of the most important issues for voters at the polls this year. The Democratic party period from 2016-present has focused heavily on identity politics, what many deem as “wokism” and more, which I wouldn’t discredit out right. Much of this is important. But, the weight and prioritization of these issues over economic and other hardships Americans face has been the issue. Many democrats and progressive knew this, but now we have data and election results to prove that it is not a winning strategy for the party, particularly in the presidential election.
Being a progressive and Bitcoiner is quite a unique position to be in, and it’s helped me analyze the world and predict certain trends and outcomes in interesting ways that often times bitcoiners, or progressives outside of the bitcoin bubble, miss. In fact, I’m not alone. Many of the outspoken progressives and left-leaning folks in the bitcoin space were former Bernie bros, inspired by Occupy Wall Street and other populist economic messages around wealth inequality, corporate capture in America, Big Bank bailouts and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Many of us have been turned off by the party’s pivot away from these battles, even to the point where Senator Elizabeth Warren has been working with and funded heavily by Big Banks, not to mention her and many others extreme hostile takes against the revolutionary technology born in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis: Bitcoin.
Here’s my take: Not only must the Democrats embrace Bitcoin to have a political future in America–I think many current and former members would be much more open to it. Rep. Ro Khanna is one leading example of a progressive democrat who understands where the Democratic Party has been losing ground to the Republicans on economic issues and Bitcoin. At the Bitcoin conference in Nashville this past summer, Rep Khanna stated, “Being against Bitcoin is like being against cell phones or the laptop, or semi conductors, it’s a technology.” Bitcoin is for freedom.”
Bitcoin advocates and campaign funding played a huge part in this year’s presidential election. While most democrats and the Harris campaign chose to mainly ignore Bitcoin and the industry, with some neutral or vague support of technology mentioned here and there, after a hostile four years under the Biden administration, this appears to be an error they couldn’t afford to make. Many progressives and democrats may continue to speak out against the industry and the campaign financing and superpacs that brought in Big Crypto Money (which campaign financing and then bitcoin the technology are two different things), but it’s an issue that can no longer be ignored, and almost weekly seems to be growing more and more bi-partisan (including ownership of Bitcoin in America, shown to be exceptionally broad and diverse across the political spectrum from a recent survey conducted by Colin Brown, Troy Cross, and Andrew Perkins).
Donald Trump and the GOP have used and garnered the single issue crypto voters in big ways. Campaign promises include protecting the right to self-custody, a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, to support the crypto and bitcoin mining industries, Free Ross, and more. We’ll see if he makes good on these promises, and it’s unclear how big of an impact Trump’s pro-crypto positions had on the election outcome, but it’s not negligible. And if anything, it also symbolized what we saw was very important for American voters– a big shift from the current administration, and big promises regarding the economy and economic prosperity for America.
As the Democrats head back to the drawing board to determine the future of the party and their priorities, many are ready to go big, unburdened by what has been (sorry, had to) with the Hilary, Biden, Harris neo-liberal coalitions. And there’s one good place to start–the economy, stupid! Affordability, inflation, and hope in a brighter economic future for middle class and working families are winning priorities and what Americans at the end of the day show up in huge numbers to vote for. Bitcoin has a significant role to play in this approach and messaging, as an inflation hedge, incredible savings technology for working families, censorship resistant payments (should progressive activists find themselves in positions to need resistance money against Donald Trump’s authoritarian policies), and beyond. If the Democrats are serious about getting back to some of their roots as the party of working class people, including an olive branch to former independent and Bernie supports who are passionate about fighting for financial freedom and a better living for working class Americans, Occupy, and beyond, they will find Bitcoin is an incredible tool to that end. With Bitcoin there is no barrier to ownership, no middleman, not broker or bank you must use or be “accredited” by
Permissionless, freedom money. Can this be a rallying cry for the next chapter in the progressive movement and for Democrats to utilize on the campaign trail? It almost seems inevitable…a when, not an if…that the Democratic party capitulates to Bitcoin and the American people’s demands, or face extinction. Myself, Margot Paez, and others from The Progressive Bitcoiner will certainly be here to advocate for a rebirthing of the progressive movement, powered by Bitcoin.
This is a guest post by Trey Walsh. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
If the Democratic Party is to have a future in US politics, it must embrace Bitcoin going forward.
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