Crypto News
Rodarmor Returns: Announces “Runes Protocol” To Compete With BRC-20
Casey Rodarmor, the mad genius creator behind Bitcoin Ordinals, has largely avoided the spotlight since March. A month and a half after launch, the Ordinals protocol exceeded any developer’s wildest dreams of adoption, long before it reached the current statistics of 32M inscriptions, 180k unique users, and $550M in trading volume, nine months down the line. In September, Casey started getting his feet wet in the Ordinals community again, attending the Ordinals Summit in Singapore and resuming his acclaimed podcast, Hell Money Pod.
But on Tuesday of this week, Casey’s warm up was over. He unveiled a blog post introducing the idea for “Runes,” an alternative fungible token protocol on Bitcoin. In his words, Runes serves to mitigate UTXO proliferation and provide significant user experience benefits compared to other fungible token protocols on Bitcoin.
“Runes are harmis harm reduction. BRC-20s create a lot of unused UTXOs. In order to spend Runes, you have to destroy UTXOs, which is good for the system as a whole. It’s also beneficial for users, enabling simpler PSBT-based swaps. Since a UTXO can only be spent once, you can create a set of transactions and then out of those transactions, you can guarantee only one of those can be mined. BRC-20 transactions can’t do this.” – Casey Rodarmor on Twitter Spaces
What Are Runes?
Runes is a fungible token protocol for Bitcoin, designed to be an alternative to BRC-20, Taproot Assets, RGB, Counterparty, and Omni Layer. In Casey’s blog post he details the differences with Runes and these protocols. Basically, it comes down to the fact that all of the others either work off-chain or are address (account) based.
According to Casey, the off-chain fungible token protocols require you to reconcile the off-chain data with the blockchain, creating an awkward user experience. The ones that are address based don’t work well with Bitcoin’s UTXO-based approach, leading to similar complications for end users.
UTXO-Based Fungible Token Tracking
Herein lies the magic of the Runes protocol. Instead of linking the record of balances to wallet addresses, it puts the records in the UTXOs themselves. A new Rune starts with an issuance transaction, specifying the supply, symbol, and number of decimals, assigning that supply to a specific UTXO. Any amount of Rune tokens can be in a UTXO, no matter its size. The UTXOs are just used to keep track of balances. Then, a transfer function uses that UTXO, splitting it into multiple new UTXOs of arbitrary size, containing different amounts of Runes, to send records to other people.
For example, if I use a UTXO with ten thousand satoshis (arbitrary), it can have a million (any number) Runes in it. If I want to send two friends 100k Runes each, I put the tuple assigning where those Runes go into the OP_RETURN of the Bitcoin transaction. I put in one UTXO, three UTXOs come out; two with 100k Runes each to my friends and the other with 800k Runes to myself.
The Return of OP_RETURN
Casey decided to use OP_RETURN, instead of the Witness part of the transaction, as he did with the Ordinals protocol, because using the Witness can make swaps and PSBTs tricky. For instance, if you have a transaction with two inputs, each of those inputs have a signature, and extra data can be added in the Witness by each. So, if you sign a transaction, another person signing the same transaction can add their own Witness data. This means you could sign it with one set of transfer instructions and so could the other user. This can’t happen with OP_RETURN.
This also means that Runes are separate from the Ordinals protocol. In some ways, this is beneficial; the separation between Ordinals and Runes makes development simpler without each depending on the other. The downside is that Runes can’t take advantage of the already existing user base and decentralization of Ordinals, making it more challenging to start a base of nodes. Conversely, if Runes become more well-liked than Ordinals—since BRC-20s currently form the majority of inscriptions—it could lead the current BRC-20 Ord node runners to switch to Runes.
Standardness Rules Are For B*tches
An interesting problem with Runes is that some transactions will break Bitcoin Core’s “standardness” rules by having OP_RETURNs that are larger than 80 bytes or by using two data pushes. In response to this, Casey mentioned that these standard rules don’t decide what makes it into a block and what’s valid within a block. If a non-standard transaction makes it into a block, it still gets processed. These rules merely decide what the vanilla Bitcoin Core will relay once your transaction is broadcasted. If miners can earn money from fees produced by Runes, nothing will stop them from accepting OP_RETURN transactions that are larger than 80 bytes. In essence, if Bitcoin Core was The Matrix, Casey is like the little bald kid telling you, the Rune user, that the key to bending the spoon is understanding that it doesn’t really exist to begin with.
Benefits to Bitcoin
In unveiling Runes, Casey points out his belief that 99.9% of fungible tokens are nothing more than scams and memes, expressing his disdain for their existence. However, he also acknowledges that he doesn’t foresee their disappearance—much like casinos are here to stay. Rather, he suggests, it would be beneficial if the “shitcoin casino” contributed fees to fortify Bitcoin while also drawing in more users and developers who are taking an interest in other blockchains. He architected Runes to possess a minimal on-chain footprint and to promote conscientious UTXO management. True to his crass style, he likened Runes to offering clean needles to street drug addicts.
Compatibility with Lightning and DLCs
It’s important to highlight a significant advantage of Runes: the fungible tokens would be compatible with both Lightning and DLCs. This is a distinctive edge over BRC-20s, attributed to Runes’s UTXO-based approach. Essentially, this means you could incorporate Runes into various multisig wallet configurations and settle their balances to a diverse set of parties. Competition invariably benefits users, and Runes might vie with Taproot Assets on its own territory, all while introducing new use cases, developers, and users to the Lightning Network.
The Ordinals Community Goes Wild
Casey revealed Runes in a blog post at 6:39pm ET, dubbing it, “a terrible idea” and a “worse-is-better fungible token protocol for Bitcoin.” Within the hour, addressing over 400 people on X Spaces, he described it as “not even a partially formed idea.” Still, the excitement within the Ordinals community was unmistakable. I personally extended an open investment offer of $100k into our next accelerator program to the first team to launch an indexer, issuance or transfer app. And by 1:12am, the first Rune token $RUNE was issued and confirmed in a Bitcoin block. The journey from a nascent blog post to implementation by an independent developer unfolded in less than 7 hours—a pace rarely witnessed on any blockchain, and certainly exceptional for Bitcoin.
A screenshot from the video game Diablo II.
This is a guest post by Trevor Owens. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
The creator of Ordinals proposes a new fungible token protocol to replace BRC-20, designing it to be much more efficient with blockspace and more secure.
Crypto News
How Bitcoin Will React After The U.S. Election
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s worth examining how past elections have influenced Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the U.S. stock market has shown notable trends around election periods. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and, most notably, the S&P 500, these trends could offer insights into what might happen next.
S&P 500 Correlation
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically held a strong correlation, particularly during BTC’s bull cycles and periods of a risk-on sentiment throughout traditional markets. This could phenomenon could potentially come to an end as Bitcoin matures and ‘decouples’ from equities and it’s narrative as a speculative asset. However there’s no evidence yet that this is the case.
Figure 1: Bitcoin & The S&P 500 180-day correlation over the past five years. View Live Chart 🔍
Post Election Outperformance
The S&P 500 has typically reacted positively following U.S. presidential elections. This pattern has been consistent over the past few decades, with the stock market often experiencing significant gains in the year following an election. In the S&P500 vs Bitcoin YoY Change chart we can see when elections occur (orange circles), and the price action of BTC (black line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) in the months that follow.
Figure 2: Bitcoin & The S&P 500 outsized returns in the year post-election. View Live Chart 🔍
2012 Election: In November 2012, the S&P 500 saw 11% year-on-year growth. A year later, this growth surged to around 32%, reflecting a strong post-election market rally.
2016 Election: In November 2016, the S&P 500 was up by about 7% year-on-year. A year later, it had increased by approximately 22%, again showing a substantial post-election boost.
2020 Election: The pattern continued in 2020. The S&P 500’s growth was around 17-18% in November 2020; by the following year, it had climbed to nearly 29%.
A Recent Phenomenon?
This isn’t limited to the previous three elections while Bitcoin existed. To get a larger data set, we can look at the previous four decades, or ten elections, of S&P 500 returns. Only one year had negative returns twelve months following election day (2000, as the dot-com bubble burst).
Figure 3: The S&P 500 has performed well following election day a majority of the time.
Historical data suggests that whether Republican or Democrat, the winning party doesn’t significantly impact these positive market trends. Instead, the upward momentum is more about resolving uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.
How Will Bitcoin React This Time
As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it’s tempting to speculate on Bitcoin’s potential performance. If historical trends hold, we could see significant price increases. For example:
If we experience the same percentage gains in the 365 days following the election as we did in 2012, Bitcoin’s price could rise to $1,000,000 or more. If we experience the same as the 2016 election, we could climb to around $500,000, and something similar to 2020 could see a $250,000 BTC.
It’s interesting to note that each occurrence has resulted in returns decreasing by about 50% each time, so maybe $125,000 is a realistic target for November 2025, especially as that price and data align with the middle bands of the Rainbow Price Chart. It’s also worth noting that in all of those cycles, Bitcoin actually went on to experience even higher cycle peak gains!
Figure 4: Rainbow Price Chart aligning with post-election price target based on historical pattern. View Live Chart 🔍
Conclusion
The data suggests that the period after a U.S. presidential election is generally bullish for both the stock market and Bitcoin. With less than two months until the next election, Bitcoin investors may have reason to be optimistic about the months ahead.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Will The U.S. Election Be Bullish For Bitcoin?
Can Historical Election Trends Predict Bitcoin’s Next Move?
Crypto News
MicroStrategy Buys Additional $489 Billion Worth of Bitcoin
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced on September 20 that it has purchased an additional 7,420 bitcoins for approximately $489 million. The company now holds over 252,000 Bitcoin, acquired for $9.9 billion.
BREAKING: MicroStrategy buys another 7,420 #Bitcoin for $458.2 million. pic.twitter.com/4nBm3EUH6M
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 20, 2024
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has adopted a Bitcoin-focused corporate strategy, taking advantage of Bitcoin’s potential as an inflation hedge and store of value. The company has accumulated over 252,000 bitcoins worth more than $15 billion, substantially increasing shareholder value.
MicroStrategy has borrowed money by issuing convertible senior notes to fund its Bitcoin purchases. It recently raised over $1 billion through note offerings, partly to acquire more Bitcoin. Other public companies have emulated this “buy Bitcoin” corporate strategy to take advantage of Bitcoin’s growth.
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin treasury purchases are like a large-scale “speculative attack” against fiat currencies. By exchanging fiat for scarce bitcoin when it is undervalued, the company could reap enormous returns if bitcoin continues appreciating as a global digital store of value.
The company is undertaking the largest speculative challenge against fiat currency in history by adding the most resilient asset to its treasury. Other public companies are beginning to emulate MicroStrategy by implementing Bitcoin treasury strategies and gaining Bitcoin exposure on their balance sheets.
MicroStrategy purchased an additional $489 million of Bitcoin, swelling its corporate Bitcoin treasury to over 252,000 BTC worth nearly $10 billion. The company’s Bitcoin strategy aims to boost returns and hedge against inflation.
Crypto News
Santa Monica Bitcoin Office Case Study to be Presented at CMRTA Annual Conference
Proof of Workforce, joined by Santa Monica Vice Mayor Lana Negrete, will showcase the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office at the upcoming California Municipal Revenue and Tax Association (CMRTA) Annual Conference on October 9-10. They will present a case study on the innovative municipal office, the first of its kind in the U.S.
Launched in July 2024 after a unanimous city council vote, the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office aims to educate residents about Bitcoin’s potential while identifying industry partnerships to support economic recovery and job creation.
“Proof of Workforce is excited to share our experiences and insights with other municipal leaders at the CMRTA conference,” said founder Dom Bei. “Already, through our early initial work, there are many valuable lessons learned and opportunities that have emerged.”
Vice Mayor Negrete added, “We have received an overwhelming amount of interest and positive engagement as we continue to learn about Bitcoin as a community.”
The presentation will highlight challenges and opportunities in implementing the novel office. It will offer lessons for other municipalities considering similar initiatives. The CMRTA conference, which convenes municipal finance experts from across California, covers topics such as personal branding, regulatory updates, ballot measures, and emerging issues like Bitcoin.
Proof of Workforce coordinates the Bitcoin Office at no cost to Santa Monica. The non-profit provides Bitcoin education and adoption resources for workers, unions, pension funds, and cities.
Proof of Workforce and Santa Monica’s vice mayor will present a case study on the city’s innovative Bitcoin Office at the CMRTA Annual Conference. The office, the first of its kind in the U.S., aims to educate on Bitcoin and support economic recovery.
-
Awakening Video1 year ago
This is What Happens When You Try to Report Dirty Cops
-
Substacks6 months ago
THE IRON-CLAD PIÑATA Seymour Hersh
-
Substacks12 months ago
The Russell Brand Rorschach Test Kathleen Stock
-
Substacks1 year ago
A real fact-check of Trump’s appearance on Meet the Press Judd Legum
-
Substacks11 months ago
Letter to the Children of Gaza – Read by Eunice Wong Chris Hedges