As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s worth examining how past elections have influenced Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the U.S. stock market has shown notable trends around election periods. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and, most notably, the S&P 500, these trends could offer insights into what might happen next.

S&P 500 Correlation

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically held a strong correlation, particularly during BTC’s bull cycles and periods of a risk-on sentiment throughout traditional markets. This could phenomenon could potentially come to an end as Bitcoin matures and ‘decouples’ from equities and it’s narrative as a speculative asset. However there’s no evidence yet that this is the case.

Figure 1: Bitcoin & The S&P 500 180-day correlation over the past five years. View Live Chart 🔍

Post Election Outperformance

The S&P 500 has typically reacted positively following U.S. presidential elections. This pattern has been consistent over the past few decades, with the stock market often experiencing significant gains in the year following an election. In the S&P500 vs Bitcoin YoY Change chart we can see when elections occur (orange circles), and the price action of BTC (black line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) in the months that follow.

Figure 2: Bitcoin & The S&P 500 outsized returns in the year post-election. View Live Chart 🔍

2012 Election: In November 2012, the S&P 500 saw 11% year-on-year growth. A year later, this growth surged to around 32%, reflecting a strong post-election market rally.

2016 Election: In November 2016, the S&P 500 was up by about 7% year-on-year. A year later, it had increased by approximately 22%, again showing a substantial post-election boost.

2020 Election: The pattern continued in 2020. The S&P 500’s growth was around 17-18% in November 2020; by the following year, it had climbed to nearly 29%.

A Recent Phenomenon?

This isn’t limited to the previous three elections while Bitcoin existed. To get a larger data set, we can look at the previous four decades, or ten elections, of S&P 500 returns. Only one year had negative returns twelve months following election day (2000, as the dot-com bubble burst).

Figure 3: The S&P 500 has performed well following election day a majority of the time.

Historical data suggests that whether Republican or Democrat, the winning party doesn’t significantly impact these positive market trends. Instead, the upward momentum is more about resolving uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.

How Will Bitcoin React This Time

As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it’s tempting to speculate on Bitcoin’s potential performance. If historical trends hold, we could see significant price increases. For example:

If we experience the same percentage gains in the 365 days following the election as we did in 2012, Bitcoin’s price could rise to $1,000,000 or more. If we experience the same as the 2016 election, we could climb to around $500,000, and something similar to 2020 could see a $250,000 BTC.

It’s interesting to note that each occurrence has resulted in returns decreasing by about 50% each time, so maybe $125,000 is a realistic target for November 2025, especially as that price and data align with the middle bands of the Rainbow Price Chart. It’s also worth noting that in all of those cycles, Bitcoin actually went on to experience even higher cycle peak gains!

Figure 4: Rainbow Price Chart aligning with post-election price target based on historical pattern. View Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

The data suggests that the period after a U.S. presidential election is generally bullish for both the stock market and Bitcoin. With less than two months until the next election, Bitcoin investors may have reason to be optimistic about the months ahead.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Will The U.S. Election Be Bullish For Bitcoin?

​ Can Historical Election Trends Predict Bitcoin’s Next Move? 

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced on September 20 that it has purchased an additional 7,420 bitcoins for approximately $489 million. The company now holds over 252,000 Bitcoin, acquired for $9.9 billion.

BREAKING: MicroStrategy buys another 7,420 #Bitcoin for $458.2 million. pic.twitter.com/4nBm3EUH6M

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 20, 2024

Since 2020, MicroStrategy has adopted a Bitcoin-focused corporate strategy, taking advantage of Bitcoin’s potential as an inflation hedge and store of value. The company has accumulated over 252,000 bitcoins worth more than $15 billion, substantially increasing shareholder value.

MicroStrategy has borrowed money by issuing convertible senior notes to fund its Bitcoin purchases. It recently raised over $1 billion through note offerings, partly to acquire more Bitcoin. Other public companies have emulated this “buy Bitcoin” corporate strategy to take advantage of Bitcoin’s growth.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin treasury purchases are like a large-scale “speculative attack” against fiat currencies. By exchanging fiat for scarce bitcoin when it is undervalued, the company could reap enormous returns if bitcoin continues appreciating as a global digital store of value.

The company is undertaking the largest speculative challenge against fiat currency in history by adding the most resilient asset to its treasury. Other public companies are beginning to emulate MicroStrategy by implementing Bitcoin treasury strategies and gaining Bitcoin exposure on their balance sheets. 

​ MicroStrategy purchased an additional $489 million of Bitcoin, swelling its corporate Bitcoin treasury to over 252,000 BTC worth nearly $10 billion. The company’s Bitcoin strategy aims to boost returns and hedge against inflation. 

Proof of Workforce, joined by Santa Monica Vice Mayor Lana Negrete, will showcase the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office at the upcoming California Municipal Revenue and Tax Association (CMRTA) Annual Conference on October 9-10. They will present a case study on the innovative municipal office, the first of its kind in the U.S.

Launched in July 2024 after a unanimous city council vote, the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office aims to educate residents about Bitcoin’s potential while identifying industry partnerships to support economic recovery and job creation.

“Proof of Workforce is excited to share our experiences and insights with other municipal leaders at the CMRTA conference,” said founder Dom Bei. “Already, through our early initial work, there are many valuable lessons learned and opportunities that have emerged.”

Vice Mayor Negrete added, “We have received an overwhelming amount of interest and positive engagement as we continue to learn about Bitcoin as a community.”

The presentation will highlight challenges and opportunities in implementing the novel office. It will offer lessons for other municipalities considering similar initiatives. The CMRTA conference, which convenes municipal finance experts from across California, covers topics such as personal branding, regulatory updates, ballot measures, and emerging issues like Bitcoin.

Proof of Workforce coordinates the Bitcoin Office at no cost to Santa Monica. The non-profit provides Bitcoin education and adoption resources for workers, unions, pension funds, and cities.

​ Proof of Workforce and Santa Monica’s vice mayor will present a case study on the city’s innovative Bitcoin Office at the CMRTA Annual Conference. The office, the first of its kind in the U.S., aims to educate on Bitcoin and support economic recovery.