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Argentina’s Golden Opportunity: The Surprising Outcome of Recent Elections

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The recent outcome of the 1st round in the elections in Argentina, will send Sergio Massa and Javier Milei into the 2nd runoff round. Javier Milei a Libertarian recently entering the political arena as an outsider, will compete for the presidency with Sergio Massa, the current Minister of Economics, running for the incumbent and rebranded Peronist party.

In this article, we will delve into why Milei’s disruptive approach into Argentina’s politics unintentionally rejuvenated the status quo he seeks to combat and will examine the broader dynamics of Argentine politics

Patricia Bullrich who was the third in dispute after the primary elections and was representing “Juntos por el Cambio” after contesting with Horacio Larreta was short in votes to continue the race. She was representing the party founded by former president, Mauricio Macri, which has been the voice of the opposition and is formed by a coalition of different political sectors with significant discrepancy on their ideological views, but with a clear position against the traditional Peronist party and strong defence of political institutions and respect for the rule of law.

Milei, a 52-year-old congressman, a new contestant in the political arena has struck a chord with this generation through his viral TikTok diatribes against the “political elite” and his fervent advocacy for free-market principles. His bold demeanor, eccentric remarks, and unkempt appearance have attracted millions of viewers and disrupted conventional politics. Unafraid to court controversy, he offers a departure from the status quo by advocating for the shutdown of the central bank, the dollarization of the economy, and substantial cuts to government spending.

His journey to political prominence was unconventional, having previously served as a goalkeeper for the Chacarita Juniors soccer team and even assuming the role of Mick Jagger in a Rolling Stones tribute band. Inspired by Argentina’s hyperinflation crisis in 1989, he transitioned to economics, eventually gaining traction through his appearances on television shows, where his unorthodox ideas and style found a receptive audience amid economic turmoil.

He was elected to Congress in 2021 with a pledge to dismantle the political elite, describing himself as a proponent of minimal government intervention. He made promises to slash the number of federal ministries and championed deregulation in various sectors, including proposing the relaxation of gun laws. Milei’s authenticity seems to resonate profoundly with the youth, and offers an avenue for Gen Z voters to express their rebellion against a system they feel has done little for them.

For decades, Argentine elections have revolved around the power struggle between the Peronist party and the Opposition. Despite their apparent differences, these two factions mainly vied for control of the government and the associated benefits. Throughout the years, Argentina has witnessed a consistent trend: government spending relentlessly expanding. This expansion has encompassed welfare programs, news organizations, public institutions, infrastructure projects, and various avenues for politicians to enrich themselves. Consequently, the government’s size ballooned faster than the country’s GDP, placing immense pressure on the private sector.

As government reserves dwindled, Argentina sought loans from international institutions, notably the IMF, with Alex Gladstein pointing out the adverse long-term consequences. Moreover, the government resorted to Money printing, effectively taxing citizens’ savings through rampant inflation.

To finance their ever-increasing expenses, the government introduced a barrage of never-ending regulations, taxes, and controls. Cumbersome regulations for opening businesses and a complex tax system have made it nearly impossible for small enterprises to thrive, creating fertile ground for corruption.

A case in point is the convoluted importation process in Argentina. Due to a shortage of USD reserves, a permit-based import system known as SIRA was established. With a stark disparity between “The official” and “The Blue” USD exchange rates, this system has bred a sophisticated web of kickbacks, no-look fees, and political protection. Unfortunately, it is the ordinary citizens who bear the brunt, as they are forced to overpay for goods and services due to the absence of competitive market forces.

The Universal Basic Income (UBI) system, intended to alleviate poverty, traps individuals within the system. High poverty rates, lack of access to quality education for the poor, and soaring inflation pressures force people to live hand-to-mouth and allow Politicians, Social and Religious leaders to exploit this predicament, demanding loyalty in exchange for UBI benefits.

Argentinians, however, have demonstrated remarkable resilience. The country boasts a vibrant informal economy where individuals endeavour to shield themselves from government overreach. Yet, the opposition has consistently advocated for tighter budget control and more institutional governance, often triggering public backlash when subsidies are reduced. Consequently, populist ideas have resurfaced each time austerity measures are implemented.

Both major political factions in Argentina share a pro-statism perspective, emphasising the state’s dominant role in controlling and regulating every aspect of society. Money issuance and control are deemed essential components of the nation’s values.

Javier Milei disrupted this stalemate by steering the debate towards individual freedom and respect for private property. This marked a significant departure from the populist and socialist ideologies that had dominated Argentina for nearly eight decades.

Javier Milei, a vocal advocate for economic freedom, has put forth audacious proposals that challenge the established norms. He advocates for closing the central bank, allowing freedom of choice in money, and professes support for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. His ideas signal a radical departure from the conventional, interventionist policies that have long dominated Argentina’s economic landscape.

As the Argentine economy faces dire circumstances, as clearly described in the latest film by Peter McCormack, people are finding innovative ways to shield themselves from its fallout. The affluent and sophisticated classes are diversifying their assets by investing in equities, real estate, and international hedges. Meanwhile, many ordinary middle-class citizens are turning to time-tested methods, such as hoarding dollars under their mattresses. Unfortunately, there is a significant portion of society that have no disposable income to save and who have no access to the banking system.

Argentina is among the leading countries on Bitcoin and Crypto adoption and that is for a reason. The rise of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, is transforming the financial landscape since they offer an accessible and decentralized means of hedging against the peso’s volatility and maintain their savings beyond the government reach. Many still fear the government and banking system appropriating their savings like it happened in 2001. Bitcoin and stablecoins like USDT (Tether) have democratized the opportunity for individuals to protect their wealth, offering a refuge from the ravages of inflation and economic uncertainty.

By proposing radical changes and openly challenging the status quo he Ironically revived it. Those who profited from the prevailing system, be they staunch supporters of state intervention or beneficiaries of its largesse, rallied behind Sergio Massa, who emerged as the candidate who would safeguard their interests.

Massa has an unparalleled drive for power and has transitioned through all political parties without any remorse to partner with those he criticised before. He was very courageous to take the Ministry of economics role in the current administration as a gateway for his candidacy. He was not shy of using the money printer at his disposal to flood the country with heaps of money that have eroded the value of the Peso driving Argentina into the worst inflation crisis in decades. But as FIAT minded people have high time preference and short time horizons, he used this in his favor and coupled this with instilling fear of the pain that the changes Milei is proposing will cause.

Argentina has now a golden opportunity in the upcoming election for those who believe there is an alternative path and a return to the Argentina of the early 1900s, characterized by economic prominence. This is the time, there is hope.

Sixty-five percent of the voters expressed a desire for change. There is a charismatic leader in the runoff challenging the incumbent system and a huge audience in the electorate looking for an option to believe that the change is possible. Yet the fear of change is palpable and achieving this change will require a collective effort from a diverse group of political leaders who must set aside their egos and seek common ground. Figures like Milei, Macri, Bullrich, and Schiaretti must step forward. Failure to do so could accelerate Argentina’s descent down the slippery slope toward a socialist, corruption-fuelled path, akin to that of Venezuela.

Argentina’s future can be bright. With greater economic freedom for the individual, clear rules and regulations, and an open market for money and the economy, Argentina has the potential to thrive once more and regain its status as a relevant global player. The winds of change have begun to blow, and with a collective effort from visionary leaders and a population eager for positive transformation, Argentina can rise to new heights. The challenges are immense, but the possibilities for a reinvigorated and prosperous Argentina are equally vast.

This is a guest post by Juan Llauró. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

​ Could Javier Milei’s campaign actually have revitalized the energy and determination of the incumbent system? 

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Proton Wallet — Now Available To Everyone — Is A Great Starter Self-Custodial Bitcoin Wallet

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Follow Frank on X.

In July of last year, Swiss privacy tech company Proton (makers of Proton Mail) announced it would be launching its own bitcoin wallet — Proton Wallet.

I (along with about 100,000 other users) was given early access to the wallet to test it out and was impressed with the wallet’s user interface. I particularly liked that it allows you to link a user’s email address to their bitcoin address so that you only need to input the email address when sending bitcoin.

You can read my review of the wallet here.

Now that the wallet is available to the general public, I will recommend it to anyone I know who’s finally ready to move their bitcoin out of the hands of an exchange and into their own custody. I’ll also recommend it to anyone looking to make semi-regular bitcoin payments on-chain with a relatively small amount of bitcoin.

My reasons for recommending the wallet are as follows:

  • It’s free to use (users can create up to three wallets and have up to three accounts in each wallet, which is sufficient for most users — more on that here; to create more wallets or accounts, Proton charges a fee)
  • It’s easy to set up (you aren’t required to write down the 12-word seed phrase when you set up the wallet; however, it’s good practice to do so!)
  • Like Proton Mail, Proton has no access to Proton Wallet user data, nor does it have access to its users’ private bitcoin keys
  • Using an email address (which doesn’t have to be a Proton Mail address) to send bitcoin reduces the likelihood of inputting the wrong bitcoin address into the recipient field of a transaction
  • You can select the priority speed of a transaction when sending bitcoin
  • You can purchase bitcoin via Ramp or Banxa using Proton Wallet, enabling the bitcoin you purchase to be transferred directly into your custody

The only downsides to the wallet is that it doesn’t support Lightning transactions (consider the Breez SDK, Proton team!), and it doesn’t let you manage your UTXOs (loose change from bitcoin transactions, in layperson’s terms).

The latter isn’t super important, though, as, again, I’d recommend this wallet to those new to bitcoin self custody. UTXO management is more of a practice for moderate to advanced Bitcoin users.

All in all, Proton has created yet another fine product here for its 100 million users and counting, and it’s one that I’ll be recommending to Bitcoin newbies moving forward.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 Proton Wallet is well-suited for anyone looking to begin their bitcoin self custody journey and/or anyone looking to make semi-frequent payments on-chain while managing a relatively small bitcoin stack. 

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El Salvador Is Still Bitcoin Country

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Follow Frank on X.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country, despite the fact that bitcoin is no longer legal tender in the country — at least from where I’m sitting.

Let’s start with some background on the matter.

On January 29, 2025, the Legislative Assembly in El Salvador voted to remove bitcoin’s status as legal tender.

This means that businesses in the country no longer have to accept bitcoin (not that this rule was ever strictly enforced while bitcoin was classified as legal currency, as far as I know; however, I have been told that big businesses that operate in the country (e.g., McDonalds, Walmart) may stop accepting bitcoin as payment now, which could have a detrimental effect on adoption).

This change occurred approximately one month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) struck a deal with authorities in El Salvador that stipulated the following:

  • El Salvador would receive a $1.4 billion loan to support the government’s “reform agenda”
  • Bitcoin-related risks be mitigated; bitcoin acceptance in the private sector must be voluntary, while the public sector’s participation in Bitcoin-related activities would be “confined” (bitcoin can no longer be used to settle government debts or pay taxes)
  • Operations for the government-created Bitcoin wallet, Chivo, would be “unwound”

While the news of the Salvadoran government’s reversing its policy on bitcoin as legal tender as a result of influence from the IMF feels like a gut punch even to me, someone who isn’t Salvadoran and doesn’t live in the country, I can’t help but believe that El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

And this feeling has only grown stronger based on what I’ve seen Bitcoiners in El Salvador posting on X.

Evelyn Lemus, co-founder and Director of Education at Bitcoin Berlin, a Bitcoin circular economy within the country, doesn’t plan to stop teaching everyday Salvadorans about Bitcoin.

The team at Bit Driver don’t plan to change their business model — accepting bitcoin as taxi fare — any time soon.

While John Dennehy, founder of Mi Primer Bitcoin, expressed concern about the government of El Salvador’s rolling back its policy on bitcoin as legal currency, he and the ever-growing team at Mi Primer Bitcoin plan to double down on the work they’re doing.

The legendary Max and Stacy haven’t publicly voiced any plans to give up on El Salvador anytime soon.

And El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, run by Stacy, is still stacking bitcoin and helping to run Bitcoin education programs in the country.

The lesson here is that while the law around Bitcoin may have changed in El Salvador, the Bitcoiners on the ground in the country have hardly flinched.

Because we are Bitcoin, what matters most is that everyday Salvadorans and everyone else involved in the Bitcoin movement in El Salvador continues to push forward with the Bitcoin mission.

The IMF may have landed a blow, but Bitcoiners in El Salvador remain steadfast in their efforts to foster broader Bitcoin adoption.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 Bitcoin may no longer be legal tender in El Salvador, but Bitcoiners in the country haven’t given up on the mission. 

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Introducing the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

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Wouldn’t it be great if we had one all-encompassing metric to guide our Bitcoin investing decisions? That’s precisely what has been created, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator. Recently added to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this indicator aims to consolidate multiple metrics into a single framework, making Bitcoin analysis and investment decision-making more streamlined.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The Official Bitcoin EVERYTHING Indicator

Why We Need a Comprehensive Indicator

Investors and analysts typically rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin’s price movements. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.

Figure 1: The new Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

View Live Chart 🔍

The Core Components of the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

Bitcoin’s price action is deeply influenced by global liquidity cycles, making macroeconomic conditions a fundamental pillar of this indicator. The correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, especially in terms of Global M2 money supply, is clear. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin typically appreciates.

Figure 2: Global Liquidity cycles have had a major influence on BTC price action.

View Live Chart 🔍

Fundamental factors like Bitcoin’s halving cycles and miner strength play an essential role in its valuation. While halvings decrease new Bitcoin supply, their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.

Figure 3: BTC miner profitability has been an accurate gauge of network health.

View Live Chart 🔍

On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. The MVRV Z-Score, for example, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins). This metric identifies accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

Figure 4: The MVRV Z-Score has historically been one of the most accurate cycle metrics.

View Live Chart 🔍

Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.

Figure 5: SOPR gives insight into real-time realized investor profits and losses.

View Live Chart 🔍

The Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is a technical metric that assesses Bitcoin’s overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

Figure 6: The Crosby Ratio has technically identified peaks and bottoms for BTC.

View Live Chart 🔍

Network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin’s strength. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator measures the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.

Figure 7: AASI monitors underlying network utilization.

View Live Chart 🔍

How the Bitcoin Everything Indicator Works

By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.

Figure 8: The most influential factors impacting the price of bitcoin.

Historical Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold Strategy

One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio’s performance with lower drawdowns.

Figure 9: Investing using this metric has outperformed buy & hold since 2011.

For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin’s history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Everything Indicator simplifies investing by merging the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin’s price action into a single metric. It has historically outperformed buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

 A Single Metric to Rule Them All – The Bitcoin Everything Indicator combines multiple key metrics into one comprehensive tool for better investment decisions. 

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