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Amidst Legal Battle, Binance to Exit Russia

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The below is a piece from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has seen several difficult months of various legal challenges, and recently sold all assets of their Russian branch to a company only founded days earlier.

The trouble began for this major exchange in June, when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance for alleged violation of securities law. Citing the “unregistered offers and sales of securities” and lying to potential investors “regarding surveillance and controls over manipulative trading,” the SEC put this company in the crosshairs of a major investigation. The Commission later chastised Binance in September about their lack of cooperation with federal regulators, and further action to unseal Binance’s record was carried out soon after.

Although Binance and its defenders have continued to assert that this lawsuit is an unfair attack in part of a federal “crypto crackdown,” new difficulties have been appearing in its fight since the legal battle escalated. A shockwave went through the Bitcoin community as Brian Shroder, CEO of Binance’s US branch, resigned on September 12 alongside a series of layoffs that eliminated approximately one third of the branch’s staff. American customers already are required to go through the Binance.us site to comply with regulators, and US dollars are no longer accepted by the platform. With these existing difficulties, the added trouble of layoffs and new management have put the future of Binance’s access to the entire American market at risk.

However, although the American operation of Binance has seen difficulties, it is still at least somewhat functional and nominally open for crypto transactions. These setbacks, in other words, truly pale in comparison to the announcement on September 27 that Binance was selling off all exchange services and business operations in the Russian Federation, denying any plans to have ongoing revenue sharing or stock buybacks. And the kicker? CommEX, the buyer of all these assets, is a company that first came into existence one day before the sale.

A move this dramatic certainly came with a large deal of speculation from the international Bitcoin community, with analyst Adam Cochrane identifying not only some telltale Binance fingerprints on CommEX’s online presence and a possible usage of the platform by Russian mercenaries in Nigeria and Ukraine. Although Binance’s press release claims that this move is prompted in part by a Department of Justice investigation into sanctions violations, CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has denied that he is the owner of CommEX. Many former Binance employees will continue their functions at CommEX, however, and he assured that “all assets of existing Russian users are safe and securely protected.”

For a major international company already involved in a months-long legal battle with the federal government, these developments are exceptionally shady. Russia has long been one of the international crypto scene’s leading nations, with high levels of interest in purchasing Bitcoin and active development in crypto and blockchain technology. So, for Binance to abruptly and completely withdraw from this major market implies a serious disruption with their normal activities and a desperate state of operations. And what if the Justice Department continues this probe, suspecting that CommEX merely is a shell company created to avoid charges? Could a lawsuit for violating sanctions join the accusations of financial impropriety?

Binance has seen some good news in the days following this announcement, but also further setbacks. On September 30, two influential players in the cryptocurrency industry, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial Ltd. and crypto investment fund Paradigm Operations filed amicus briefs in support of Binance’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit against them. Although it is surely heartening to see support from companies with no financial stake in Binance — Circle is even partially owned by Binance’s competitor Coinbase — it is unclear whether the actions of these other firms will deter the SEC’s offensive.

Worse, it is no longer only the federal government targeting Binance through the SEC and Department of Justice. On October 3, Nir Lahav filed a class-action civil suit against Binance and several subsidiaries, specifically mentioning CEO Changpeng Zhao by name. Although this suit alleges that Binance has indeed violated SEC regulations, the goal of this lawsuit is for private entities to win compensation for damage to their businesses. In essence, Lahav and the plaintiffs have accused Binance of triggering the collapse of FTX, allowing Binance to secure more of the market.

These charges seem somewhat flimsy, especially considering that they allege foul play against a firm whose CEO is currently on trial for fraud and money laundering charges. Still, even if this lawsuit is dismissed in short order, it still is a very telling snapshot of the general attitude towards Binance: there is blood in the water. Perhaps these plaintiffs are primarily aiming to force Binance to settle with them, or perhaps they plan to pursue this fight as long as possible. Regardless, actions like this are rarely taken against multibillion dollar businesses with a stable footing.

Even if this lawsuit flops without much impact to Binance’s underlying business, there are other warning signs that seem even more dire. There has been a dramatic fall from grace for Binance’s stablecoin, BUSD, as the firm announced on October 3rd that they would cease all borrowing and lending in BUSD before the end of the month. In August, Binance announced a gradual closure of the BUSD asset, albeit with a vague timeline of some time in 2024. To have such a major aspect of the token shuttered in such short order is typical of much smaller stablecoin operations. BUSD, however, had a peak market capitalization of $23 billion in November 2022, and has cratered dramatically in less than a year to barely over $2 billion. Evidently, something has gone deeply wrong with this previously-successful product, now that it is being abandoned entirely.

Source: UTXO Management

It’s anyone’s guess as to what happens to Binance from here, whether it ends up completely ceasing to exist a year from now or flourishing beyond its former prominence. In any event, the value of Bitcoin itself seems untangled from these proceedings. Although the entire crypto industry took a massive and sustained hit when FTX collapsed suddenly, the compounding difficulties for another giant crypto exchange have coincided with a solid performance by the biggest cryptocurrency. Perhaps Bitcoin has learned some lessons from previous setbacks, and will be more resilient to future setbacks. After all, if there’s one thing that these developments can demonstrate, it’s that the world of Bitcoin is a global business with multifarious connections. It’s far bigger than even the largest crypto exchange. 

​ While fighting a legal battle with the SEC, troubled crypto exchange Binance has sold off their entire business in Russia to a possible shell company. 

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Proton Wallet — Now Available To Everyone — Is A Great Starter Self-Custodial Bitcoin Wallet

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Follow Frank on X.

In July of last year, Swiss privacy tech company Proton (makers of Proton Mail) announced it would be launching its own bitcoin wallet — Proton Wallet.

I (along with about 100,000 other users) was given early access to the wallet to test it out and was impressed with the wallet’s user interface. I particularly liked that it allows you to link a user’s email address to their bitcoin address so that you only need to input the email address when sending bitcoin.

You can read my review of the wallet here.

Now that the wallet is available to the general public, I will recommend it to anyone I know who’s finally ready to move their bitcoin out of the hands of an exchange and into their own custody. I’ll also recommend it to anyone looking to make semi-regular bitcoin payments on-chain with a relatively small amount of bitcoin.

My reasons for recommending the wallet are as follows:

  • It’s free to use (users can create up to three wallets and have up to three accounts in each wallet, which is sufficient for most users — more on that here; to create more wallets or accounts, Proton charges a fee)
  • It’s easy to set up (you aren’t required to write down the 12-word seed phrase when you set up the wallet; however, it’s good practice to do so!)
  • Like Proton Mail, Proton has no access to Proton Wallet user data, nor does it have access to its users’ private bitcoin keys
  • Using an email address (which doesn’t have to be a Proton Mail address) to send bitcoin reduces the likelihood of inputting the wrong bitcoin address into the recipient field of a transaction
  • You can select the priority speed of a transaction when sending bitcoin
  • You can purchase bitcoin via Ramp or Banxa using Proton Wallet, enabling the bitcoin you purchase to be transferred directly into your custody

The only downsides to the wallet is that it doesn’t support Lightning transactions (consider the Breez SDK, Proton team!), and it doesn’t let you manage your UTXOs (loose change from bitcoin transactions, in layperson’s terms).

The latter isn’t super important, though, as, again, I’d recommend this wallet to those new to bitcoin self custody. UTXO management is more of a practice for moderate to advanced Bitcoin users.

All in all, Proton has created yet another fine product here for its 100 million users and counting, and it’s one that I’ll be recommending to Bitcoin newbies moving forward.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 Proton Wallet is well-suited for anyone looking to begin their bitcoin self custody journey and/or anyone looking to make semi-frequent payments on-chain while managing a relatively small bitcoin stack. 

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El Salvador Is Still Bitcoin Country

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Follow Frank on X.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country, despite the fact that bitcoin is no longer legal tender in the country — at least from where I’m sitting.

Let’s start with some background on the matter.

On January 29, 2025, the Legislative Assembly in El Salvador voted to remove bitcoin’s status as legal tender.

This means that businesses in the country no longer have to accept bitcoin (not that this rule was ever strictly enforced while bitcoin was classified as legal currency, as far as I know; however, I have been told that big businesses that operate in the country (e.g., McDonalds, Walmart) may stop accepting bitcoin as payment now, which could have a detrimental effect on adoption).

This change occurred approximately one month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) struck a deal with authorities in El Salvador that stipulated the following:

  • El Salvador would receive a $1.4 billion loan to support the government’s “reform agenda”
  • Bitcoin-related risks be mitigated; bitcoin acceptance in the private sector must be voluntary, while the public sector’s participation in Bitcoin-related activities would be “confined” (bitcoin can no longer be used to settle government debts or pay taxes)
  • Operations for the government-created Bitcoin wallet, Chivo, would be “unwound”

While the news of the Salvadoran government’s reversing its policy on bitcoin as legal tender as a result of influence from the IMF feels like a gut punch even to me, someone who isn’t Salvadoran and doesn’t live in the country, I can’t help but believe that El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

And this feeling has only grown stronger based on what I’ve seen Bitcoiners in El Salvador posting on X.

Evelyn Lemus, co-founder and Director of Education at Bitcoin Berlin, a Bitcoin circular economy within the country, doesn’t plan to stop teaching everyday Salvadorans about Bitcoin.

The team at Bit Driver don’t plan to change their business model — accepting bitcoin as taxi fare — any time soon.

While John Dennehy, founder of Mi Primer Bitcoin, expressed concern about the government of El Salvador’s rolling back its policy on bitcoin as legal currency, he and the ever-growing team at Mi Primer Bitcoin plan to double down on the work they’re doing.

The legendary Max and Stacy haven’t publicly voiced any plans to give up on El Salvador anytime soon.

And El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, run by Stacy, is still stacking bitcoin and helping to run Bitcoin education programs in the country.

The lesson here is that while the law around Bitcoin may have changed in El Salvador, the Bitcoiners on the ground in the country have hardly flinched.

Because we are Bitcoin, what matters most is that everyday Salvadorans and everyone else involved in the Bitcoin movement in El Salvador continues to push forward with the Bitcoin mission.

The IMF may have landed a blow, but Bitcoiners in El Salvador remain steadfast in their efforts to foster broader Bitcoin adoption.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 Bitcoin may no longer be legal tender in El Salvador, but Bitcoiners in the country haven’t given up on the mission. 

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Introducing the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

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Wouldn’t it be great if we had one all-encompassing metric to guide our Bitcoin investing decisions? That’s precisely what has been created, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator. Recently added to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this indicator aims to consolidate multiple metrics into a single framework, making Bitcoin analysis and investment decision-making more streamlined.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The Official Bitcoin EVERYTHING Indicator

Why We Need a Comprehensive Indicator

Investors and analysts typically rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin’s price movements. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.

Figure 1: The new Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

View Live Chart 🔍

The Core Components of the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

Bitcoin’s price action is deeply influenced by global liquidity cycles, making macroeconomic conditions a fundamental pillar of this indicator. The correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, especially in terms of Global M2 money supply, is clear. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin typically appreciates.

Figure 2: Global Liquidity cycles have had a major influence on BTC price action.

View Live Chart 🔍

Fundamental factors like Bitcoin’s halving cycles and miner strength play an essential role in its valuation. While halvings decrease new Bitcoin supply, their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.

Figure 3: BTC miner profitability has been an accurate gauge of network health.

View Live Chart 🔍

On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. The MVRV Z-Score, for example, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins). This metric identifies accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

Figure 4: The MVRV Z-Score has historically been one of the most accurate cycle metrics.

View Live Chart 🔍

Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.

Figure 5: SOPR gives insight into real-time realized investor profits and losses.

View Live Chart 🔍

The Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is a technical metric that assesses Bitcoin’s overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

Figure 6: The Crosby Ratio has technically identified peaks and bottoms for BTC.

View Live Chart 🔍

Network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin’s strength. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator measures the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.

Figure 7: AASI monitors underlying network utilization.

View Live Chart 🔍

How the Bitcoin Everything Indicator Works

By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.

Figure 8: The most influential factors impacting the price of bitcoin.

Historical Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold Strategy

One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio’s performance with lower drawdowns.

Figure 9: Investing using this metric has outperformed buy & hold since 2011.

For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin’s history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Everything Indicator simplifies investing by merging the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin’s price action into a single metric. It has historically outperformed buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

 A Single Metric to Rule Them All – The Bitcoin Everything Indicator combines multiple key metrics into one comprehensive tool for better investment decisions. 

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