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If Not Biden, Then Who? Peter Savodnik

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A Democratic bundler who knows Newsom texted Peter Savodnik: “Gavin represents everything cartoonish about California and politicians…All the plasticky stuff middle America hates.” (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)

On the record, everyone important in the Democratic Party is behind Joe Biden. 

“The question everyone’s asking is: ‘Who can pull together the raucous and rowdy Democratic Party coalition in a way that allows that coalition to beat the coalition pulled together by Mr. Trump,’” said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a Democratic strategist and fundraiser in northern Virginia. Melhorn insists the perfect—the only—candidate who can do that remains Joe Biden.

“Master Yoda is exactly what you need to protect against the Dark Side,” added Melhorn, who works closely with Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn who has become one of the party’s biggest donors. “As Joe Biden gets older, he’s like Master Yoda.”

Jamie Patricof, a movie and television producer in Los Angeles, added that debates are not that important. “If it were, then Hillary Clinton would have been president,” Patricof told me. “I trusted Joe Biden to be a great president, and he has delivered on that. I trust him to know if he can do it again.” 

So those are the kind of things prominent Democrats will say publicly. Privately, it’s a different story. 

I spent the weekend speaking to more than 20 Democratic activists, strategists, and donors who insisted the party needs to shake things up—now—if it’s going to hold on to the White House. They mentioned the names of at least 10 governors and senators who they believe could beat Trump.

“Secretly, most of the donors are worried sick and would like to see someone else on the ticket,” a Democratic fundraiser who works with elected officials and donors told me. “They’re not going to speak against him publicly, but they’re very worried—they’re sending specific suggestions about who should replace him.”

The vast majority, she said, suggested Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. 

“Right state. Right story. A woman who doesn’t threaten men. Perfect,” a Democratic activist in Los Angeles who has worked on messaging on numerous campaigns said of Whitmer.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer speaks during the 69th Annual Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner at Huntington Place on May 19, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Monica Morgan via Getty Images)

The governor, who is 52, won reelection in 2022 by almost 11 points—defeating a Republican Donald Trump had endorsed.

Right behind Whitmer is Wes Moore. The Maryland governor is 45, a former Rhodes Scholar who also served with the Army in Afghanistan. “Yeah, he’s incredible, just incredibly well-spoken, well-educated—the whole deal,” a Democratic consultant told me. Moore is also black, with some Cuban heritage, which Democrats hope would help counteract Trump’s huge gains with black and Latino voters over the past few years. His 2022 election was historic: Moore is Maryland’s first black governor (and only the third nationwide), and he won in a 32-point landslide.

Not only is Moore the first black governor of Maryland, but he also won in a landslide, by more than 30 points.

Andy Beshear, the 46-year-old governor of red-state Kentucky, came up in many of my conversations. “He couldn’t win Kentucky in the general against Trump,” a Democratic consultant told me, “but he doesn’t need to. He’d placate all those soft Trump voters in the suburbs—the people who will decide this election.” These are the people who voted, without much enthusiasm, for Trump in 2016, jumped to Biden in 2020, and are now up for grabs.

Then there’s Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, 51. Shapiro, like Whitmer, comes from a battleground state, and, like Beshear, he has built a name for himself working across the aisle. “Kind of bland, but maybe bland works,” one Democratic activist, in Florida, told me. 

Another Democratic bundler noted that Shapiro is Jewish, adding that it’s unclear how that might play out with the delegates who would pick Biden’s replacement. Democratic delegates tend to be more progressive than Democratic voters, and the war in Gaza has inflamed tensions between progressives and supporters of Israel, which includes most Jews.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore speaks at a campaign event for Maryland Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Angela Alsobrooks on Gun Violence Awareness Day. ( Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)

Two other possible replacements whose names have been bandied about in the past 72 hours are Senators Mark Kelly, from Arizona—“He could deliver Arizona, and that could decide it,” one Democrat said—and Raphael Warnock, from Georgia. Warnock, like Moore, is black—and he comes from Georgia, one of the key states in Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump.

Then there’s California governor Gavin Newsom, who “looks like he was plucked out of central casting for the role” of president, a Democratic bundler in California texted me. Most say that Newsom is wildly ambitious and simply waiting for the right moment to strike—and nearly everyone agrees his odds of winning the nomination are slim to none.

“You can’t be seen to be wanting this,” a Democrat close to Newsom told me. “You just have to wait until Biden gives the cue.”

In the meantime, Newsom is doing what loyal Democrats are supposed to do: aggressively pretending he has no interest in being president.

“You don’t turn your back because of one performance,” the governor declared in a brief television interview Thursday night, shortly after the debate. “What kind of party does that?” He sounded borderline offended.

Just to make sure everyone knew just how put off he was by the idea of replacing Biden, the governor retweeted the clip to his 2.1 million followers.

A Democratic bundler who knows Newsom well texted me: “Gavin represents everything cartoonish about California and politicians (he’s also facing another recall). All the plasticky stuff middle America hates.” He said the governor would “fight like hell” for the nomination—and he hoped he didn’t get it. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, also from California, would definitely run, but she enjoys even less support among Democrats than Newsom does. In a matchup with the presumptive GOP nominee, Biden trails Trump by 1.5 points—and Harris by 6.6.

“Look, I want a female president, let alone a black female president, as much as any logical person wants it—like there’s nothing we want more,” a Democrat close to the Biden administration told me. “But just because you happen to be black and a woman doesn’t mean you’re the right person.” No one I spoke to voiced enthusiasm about a President Harris.

The big question facing the Biden campaign is how the debate affects the president’s fundraising numbers, Democrats said.

Alan Rosenblatt, a social-media strategist in Washington, D.C., who has worked for Joe Biden and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, among others, said that, in the immediate wake of the debate, Biden’s fundraising numbers had actually gone up. “I am seeing a surge of support for him online,” Rosenblatt texted me. In the 48-hour period following the debate, the president reeled in $33 million.

A Democratic consultant who toggles between Washington and Los Angeles said he wouldn’t read too much into that. “Something bad happens to your guy, and the small donors are enraged and send another ten bucks,” he said. “That’s tribal loyalty.” Trump, he noted, enjoyed a similar bump after he was convicted on 34 counts of trying to illegally influence the 2016 election, in late May.

The big question, the consultant said, is what the big-money donors do—the people throwing the big fundraisers in New York and California.

That would depend, in no small part, on the polls. The consultant said that he’d heard of several donors who had decided not to give to Biden’s campaign or the super PACs supporting him, and instead will spend on House and Senate races.

A poll conducted while the debate was taking place showed Biden slipping 8 points among Democratic-leaning voters. The polling conducted over the past 48 hours has been devastating: According to a new CBS News/YouGov poll, only 27% of respondents said that Biden had the “mental and cognitive health necessary to serve as president.”

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro arrives to deliver remarks at the North American Building Trades Unions 2024 Legislative Conference at the Washington Hilton on April 24, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images)

All of this will remain in the realm of pure fantasy unless the current president of the United States decides to announce he is stepping aside and releasing his 3,894 delegates, whom he won in primaries across the country earlier this year.

If that were to happen, the would-be replacements would have to vie for the delegates’ support. Either a majority of delegates would rally around one of the would-be replacements—behind closed doors? On social media? On MSNBC? All of the above?—or there would be a protracted fight that would lead to a brokered convention, a convention in which the nominee is not selected in the first round of voting, in Chicago, in mid-August. 

No one knows exactly what a brokered convention in 2024 would look like. The last brokered convention was in 1952, when it took Democrats three ballots before they nominated Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson for president—and Stevenson lost, to Republican Dwight Eisenhower. (The last time a Democratic nominee emerged from a brokered convention and went on to win was in 1932. That was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.)

“I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Dana Perlman, a Los Angeles attorney who raised a great deal of money for Democratic presidential candidates in previous election cycles, told me. “I know I sound like an apparatchik, and I’m not.” He called Biden “the most effective” president of his life, and he was perplexed by Democrats’ “hue and cry, and rending of garments.”

Perlman added that he had known Biden for many years, and he didn’t see him backing down from the fight ahead. “He doesn’t have it in him to walk away,” he said.

As of Sunday, the Biden family was gathered at Camp David, where, according to Politico, they were variously blaming the debater’s moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, Biden advisors Anita Dunn, Bob Bauer and Ron Klain, and CNN’s makeup artists. Notably absent from that list was the president himself.

Peter Savodnik (@petersavodnik) is a writer and editor for The Free Press. Read his piece, “Welcome to the Trump Veepstakes!

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TGIF: It’s Just My Brain Katie Herzog

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US President Joe Biden (L) and US Vice President Kamala Harris hold hands and gesture as they watch the Independence Day fireworks display from the Truman Balcony of the White House in Washington, DC. (Mandel Ngan via Getty Images)

When Nellie asked me to fill in while she is off birthing a persons, I said yes but only on slow news weeks. She assured me that no news ever drops the first week of July and I’d be able to paste in a few of my favorite Mormon mommy TikTokers, write a sentence or two about Seattle’s annual Independence Day Flag Burning Parade, and then go soak my feet in the pool. She lied. It’s been a hell of a week, and Nellie said no takes backs, so I guess you’re stuck with me. Let’s go. 

→ Will he or won’t he? The New York Times reports that Biden told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the race. What they don’t say is that ally is actually the nice Bulgarian woman who helps him into the shower. Either way, last week’s disaster of a debate continues to roil the Democratic Party, which is now tasked with trying to figure out who is the least terrible candidate: a historically unpopular VP or the guy who starts sundowning around noon. Or maybe somebody else?

The Dems are in a tough position. Biden’s most trusted advisers (read: Hunter) want him to stay in the race, but everyone else is desperately trying to think of someone, anyone, who can win against Trump while also sparing the old man’s feelings. 

So far, most of the freakout is happening behind closed doors. Publicly, most Democrats are standing by their man—for now. Just three Dems in Congress have called on Biden to step aside. And, barring that chat with the ally, the president himself seems to be in full “I’m not quitting” mode. 

Not that he has done anything this week to demonstrate his fitness for office. While the president laid low, his press secretary said that it was really just a cold, plus maybe a bit of jet lag. White House aides told Axios that the president is “dependably engaged” from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. In a meeting with concerned Democratic governors who flew in to check on the old guy at the top of the ballot, he said all he needs is to work less, sleep more, and be able to clock out after 8 p.m. In that same meeting, the president is reported to have said: “It’s just my brain.” This is supposed to reassure us? What’s even more troubling is that longtime friends of the Bidens told New York magazine’s Olivia Nuzzi that they were “shocked to find that the president did not remember their names.” Incoming statement from the White House: “Guys, it’s just face blindness.”  

I get it: Biden is a beloved elder statesman, and no one wants to hurt the old man’s feelings. So just do what they did at the retirement home when my grandpa had dementia: tell him whatever he wants to hear. Good news, Mr. President, you won the election! We’ll get Gorbachev on the line for you right after dinner. More ice cream? It’s chocolate chip. Seriously, this works. 

→ Or maybe it’s just the media? Nothing to see here, folks! Just when we thought the spell had been broken and most of the media was finally willing to report on what’s been happening before our very eyes, former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is now advising the Biden campaign, claimed on MSNBC that the media is rigging this whole thing. In this case, the former mayor was referring to her hometown paper, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which published an editorial calling for Biden to exit stage left. 

“Let me just say I was very disappointed with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution,” Bottoms told Chris Jansing. “As we have talked about making sure we’re protecting elections and making sure there’s no undue influence, this was undue influence by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, or an attempt to influence.”

As Jansing pointed out, it’s an editorial board. Attempting to influence elections is their literal job. Then again, Bottoms is a political operative. Spin is her literal job too. 

→ Speaking of spin: The New York Times executive editor Joe Kahn sent a note out to staff, congratulating everyone on their coverage of Biden’s age: “What I’ve seen and what our readers have experienced from our team is steadfast, fact-based reporting. . . . We have stayed on that story with every turn, always with nuance and context, through today’s outstanding report.”

See, now that a critical mass sees that Biden is plainly too old, we’ve shifted straight into revisionism. We’ve been telling you the truth the whole time. Except, in March, the Gray Lady was likening Biden’s age to just a new, later in life style—like Scorsese with The Irishman (s/o Jon Levine for re-upping this). And those videos of his many senior moments before the debate? Misleading! Bad faith! You aren’t watching an old man be old, they said. Those are deepfakes and cheapfakes

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Associated Press offered up 2024’s answer to “mostly peaceful” riots:

→ KHive, assemble: Personally, I vote Al Franken as Biden’s replacement. He’s smart, funny, Midwestern, and he loves women. But Vegas has Kamala as the probable Democratic nominee. And I guess that makes sense, given that she’s the vice president and all. “It’s her party now,” read the banner headline on Drudge this past Wednesday.


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July 4, 2024 Heather Cox Richardson

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Monday, July 1, was a busy day. That morning the Supreme Court handed down a decision in Donald J. Trump v. United States that gives the president absolute immunity for committing crimes while engaging in official acts. On the same day, Trump White House strategist Steve Bannon began a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress at a low-security federal prison in Danbury, Connecticut. Before he began serving his sentence, he swore he would “be more powerful in prison than I am now.” 

“On July 2, Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, went onto Bannon’s webcast War Room to hearten Bannon’s right-wing followers after Bannon’s incarceration. Former representative Dave Brat (R-VA) was sitting in for Bannon and conducted the interview.  

“[W]e are going to win,” Roberts told them. “We’re in the process of taking this country back…. We ought to be really encouraged by what happened yesterday. And in spite of all of the injustice, which, of course, friends and audience of this show, of our friend Steve know, we are going to prevail.”

“That Supreme Court ruling yesterday on immunity is vital, and it’s vital for a lot of reasons,” Roberts said, adding that the nation needs a strong leader because “the radical left…has taken over our institutions.” “[W]e are in the process of the second American Revolution,” he said, “which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

Roberts took over the presidency of the Heritage Foundation in 2021, and he shifted it from a conservative think tank to an organization devoted to “institutionalizing Trumpism.” Central to that project for Roberts has been working to bring the policies of Hungary’s president Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, to the United States. 

In 2023, Roberts brought the Heritage Foundation into a formal partnership with Hungary’s Danube Institute, a think tank overseen by a foundation that is directly funded by the Hungarian government; as journalist Casey Michel reported, it is, “for all intents and purposes, a state-funded front for pushing pro-Orbán rhetoric.” The Danube Institute has given grants to far-right figures in the U.S., and, Michel noted in March, “we have no idea how much funding may be flowing directly from Orbán’s regime to the Heritage Foundation.” Roberts has called modern Hungary “not just a model for conservative statecraft but the model.”

Orbán has been open about his determination to overthrow the concept of western democracy and replace it with what he has, on different occasions, called “illiberal democracy” or “Christian democracy.” He wants to replace the multiculturalism at the heart of democracy with Christian culture, stop the immigration that he believes undermines Hungarian culture, and reject “adaptable family models” in favor of “the Christian family model.” He is moving Hungary away from the stabilizing international systems supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

No matter what he calls it, Orbán’s model is not democracy at all. As soon as he retook office in 2010, he began to establish control over the media, cracking down on those critical of his far-right political party, Fidesz, and rewarding those who toed the party line. In 2012 his supporters rewrote the country’s constitution to strengthen his hand, and extreme gerrymandering gave his party more power while changes to election rules benefited his campaigns. Increasingly, he used the power of the state to concentrate wealth among his cronies, and he reworked the country’s judicial system and civil service system to stack it with his loyalists, who attacked immigrants, women, and the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals. While Hungary still holds elections, state control of the media and the apparatus of voting means that it is impossible for the people of Hungary to remove him from power.

Trump supporters have long admired Orbán’s nationalism and centering of Christianity, while the fact that Hungary continues to have elections enables them to pretend that the country remains a democracy.

The tight cooperation between Heritage and Orbán illuminates Project 2025, the blueprint for a new kind of government dictated by Trump or a Trump-like figure. In January 2024, Roberts told Lulu Garcia-Navarro of the New York Times that Project 2025 was designed to jump-start a right-wing takeover of the government. “[T]he Trump administration, with the best of intentions, simply got a slow start,” Roberts said. “And Heritage and our allies in Project 2025 believe that must never be repeated.”

Project 2025 stands on four principles that it says the country must embrace: the U.S. must “[r]estore the family as the centerpiece of American life and protect our children”; “[d]ismantle the administrative state and return self-governance to the American people”; “[d]efend our nation’s sovereignty, borders, and bounty against global threats”; and “[s]ecure our God-given individual rights to live freely—what our Constitution calls ‘the Blessings of Liberty.’”

In almost 1,000 pages, the document explains what these policies mean for ordinary Americans. Restoring the family and protecting children means using “government power…to restore the American family.” That, the document says, means eliminating any words associated with sexual orientation or gender identity, gender, abortion, reproductive health, or reproductive rights from any government rule, regulation, or law. Any reference to transgenderism is “pornography” and must be banned. 

The overturning of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that recognized the right to abortion must be gratefully celebrated, the document says, but the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision accomplishing that end “is just the beginning.” 

Dismantling the administrative state starts from the premise that “people are policy.” Frustrated because nonpartisan civil employees thwarted much of Trump’s agenda in his first term, the authors of Project 2025 call for firing much of the current government workforce—about 2 million people work for the U.S. government—and replacing it with loyalists who will carry out a right-wing president’s demands. 

The plan asserts “the existential need” for an authoritarian leader to dismantle the current government that regulates business, provides a social safety net, and protects civil rights. Instead of the government Americans have built since 1933, the plan says the national government must “decentralize and privatize as much as possible” and leave “the great majority of domestic activities to state, local, and private governance.”

It attacks “America’s largest corporations, its public institutions, and its popular culture,” for their embrace of international organizations like the United Nations and the European Union and for their willingness to work with other countries. It calls for abandoning all of those partnerships and alliances. 

Also on July 1, Orbán took over the rotating presidency of the European Union. He will be operating for six months in that position under a slogan taken from Trump and adapted to Europe: “Make Europe Great Again.” The day before taking that office, Orbán announced that his political party was forming a new alliance with far-right parties in Austria and the Czech Republic in order to launch a “new era of European politics.”

Tomorrow, Orbán will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian president Vladimir Putin. On July 2, Orbán met with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where he urged Zelensky to accept a “ceasefire.” In the U.S., Trump’s team has suggested that, if reelected, Trump will call for an immediate ceasefire and will negotiate with Putin over how much of Ukraine Putin can keep while also rejecting Ukraine for NATO membership and scaling back U.S. commitment to NATO. 

“I would expect a very quick end to the conflict,” Kevin Roberts said. Putin says he supports Trump’s plan. 

Roberts’s “second American revolution,” which would destroy American democracy in an echo of a small-time dictator like Orbán and align our country with authoritarian leaders, seems a lot less patriotic than the first American Revolution. 

For my part, I will stand with the words written 248 years ago today, saying that “all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.—That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” 

Notes:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/steve-bannon-report-to-prison/index.html

https://www.mediamatters.org/project-2025/heritage-foundation-president-celebrates-supreme-court-immunity-decision-we-are

https://newrepublic.com/article/179776/heritage-foundation-viktor-orban-trump

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/21/magazine/heritage-foundation-kevin-roberts.html

https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/what-is-project-2025-and-why-is-it-alarming/

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/30/make-europe-great-again-hungary-sets-scene-eu-presidency

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-fidesz-form-new-far-right-alliance-austria-czech-republic/

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-orban-visit-kyiv-ukraine-peace-putin-zelenskiy/33022024.html

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europe/viktor-orban-visits-kyiv-intl/index.html

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517

The Bulwark
The Trumpists’ Dangerous ‘Peace’ Plan for Ukraine
NO ON…
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Khrystyna Bondarieva, “Putin on Trump’s proposal to quickly end war in Ukraine: Russia supports it,” Ukrainska Pravda, July 4, 2024.

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When a President Drops Out: What Biden Can Learn from 1968 Bari Weiss

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On our nation’s 248th birthday, Joe Biden faces the wrath of a thousand pundits. The whole world watched the elected leader of the world’s oldest republic befogged, slack-jawed, and mentally vacant in a debate he had to win. A recent poll from CBS showed that after Biden’s performance last week, 72 percent of registered voters believed the man lacked the cognitive ability to be president. 

Even his closest friends and sycophants are pleading for the old man to hang it up. The New York Times editorial board. Former advisers to Barack Obama. Columnist and Biden’s personal friend, Tom Friedman, said he wept in a hotel room in Portugal while watching the debate. They’ve seen enough. Joe Biden, for the good of your country, step down. 

And yet, Biden’s White House is shrugging it off. It was just a debate, they tell us. Don’t let 90 minutes define years of accomplishments. 

But it was not just a debate. It was indelible and undeniable proof that the leader of the free world lacks the stamina and acuity to do the job for four more months, let alone four more years. 

As Biden weighs his decision, he may well think back to when he was a young man and then-president Lyndon Baines Johnson found himself in a similar position. Johnson was losing the country, and in the middle of the primary he decided to bow out. 

Today, Free Press writer Eli Lake hosts a special episode about what happened in 1968 when President Johnson decided he was not fit for reapplying for his job. He listened to his critics and backed away from the White House, allowing the Democrats an opportunity to stage an open convention to choose their next candidate for the presidency. But why did the party want him gone so badly? And how did this seismic decision work out? It’s a tale of murder, war, and riots that culminated in the most explosive convention in the history of America.

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