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Are You Really Gonna Make Me Vote for Joe Biden? Peter Savodnik

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President Joe Biden would be 82 if he’s sworn in for a second term, a prospect that has most American voters hoping for an alternative. (Win McNamee via Getty Images)

Democrats insist President Joe Biden—who would be 82 if he’s sworn in for a second term and 86 if he finishes it—will be their nominee next year. “President Biden remains a healthy, vigorous, 80-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency,” the White House physician, Kevin O’Connor, said in February. 

Talk on the record to any adviser, bundler, consultant, office-holder, or office-seeker, and they’ll echo O’Connor, or at the very least insist that it’s going to be Biden. Guaranteed.

Quietly, they’ll admit that, sure, maybe Biden’s not as sharp as he used to be. Okay, maybe he’s just a wee bit elderly. (Lest you’ve also been asleep, see The Free Beacon’s “Joe Biden’s Senior Moment of the Week.”) 

But hey, they’ll point out, just look at the many lapses and gaffes of the former and possibly future Republican president, who was indicted—for the fourth time—late Monday by a grand jury in Georgia, for trying to overthrow the 2020 election. Donald Trump, they note, would also be in his eighties by the time his second term ends.

For most of us civilians, that’s cold comfort.

Which is why we couldn’t help but notice when California’s Democratic governor Gavin Newsom recently challenged Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to a debate. Isn’t that the kind of thing presidential hopefuls do? (DeSantis, who is running for the GOP presidential nomination, certainly thinks so. He suggested Newsom “stop pussyfooting around” and challenge Biden.)

It’s why every story that dribbles out about the president, his son, Ukraine, the Department of Justice—well, it makes one take note.

As many as 70 percent of voters—including 51 percent of Democrats—have said Biden should step down. They’re wondering the same thing perhaps you are: Who would be the nominee if it’s not Biden? Who could it be?

“These parlor games might be fun for some to play, but Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee!” Lis Smith, the savvy Democratic strategist who advised Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, told The Free Press in an email. 

Maybe so.

But to the rest of us, to the voters of all political stripes who fear the country is mired in its own Leonid Brezhnev moment—with a doddering head of state propped up by loyalists terrified of losing power—you’re (we’re) not crazy. You’re just a normal person and not a fixture of the Democratic establishment whose future earnings capacity depends on your willingness to pretend up is down and hope that America skates through a presidential election and another four-year term without any major hiccups.

So let’s play the parlor game! Let’s consider six alternatives to the seamless, move-along-folks-there’s-nothing-to-see-here re-anointing the White House is counting on.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 

(Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images)

When he announced his candidacy with a rambling, two-hour speech in mid-April, RFK Jr., 69, immediately took off, and by mid-May, he was polling at 20 percent among Democrats.

He invoked the idealism of his martyred father; he was vigorous (can you do push-ups like this?); and he had a way of connecting voters with a longed-for past while pointing toward a better future—one that marked a return to the economic populism that once made the Democratic Party a nationwide force, from Franklin Delano Roosevelt to the election of Bill Clinton.

Above all, he was a disrupter who was happy to buck—no, offend—the establishment, which was (presumably) why Jack Dorsey passionately endorsed him, Elon Musk was playing footsie with him, and Joe Rogan had him on his show. 

If Americans could elect Trump, why not RFK Jr.? If they were down with a reality television star, why not a lawyer and an environmental activist with a shiny last name?

But. . . the vaccinations. And that very strange, seemingly racist Covid thing. And the constant conspiracy theorizing. 

The conspiracy theories were sort of understandable when you considered that, when he was nine, his uncle was murdered, and when he was 14, his father was, too.

Still, to RFK Jr., every problem we face has always been the fault of the CIA and probably a few publicly traded corporations. “It’s the same kind of forces that have been dominant in this country since my uncle’s assassination,” he told me.

This may explain why Kennedy now appears to be losing ground among Democrats: he’s now polling at just shy of 14 percent—50 points behind the president.

Even so, the super PAC supporting him raised nearly $6.5 million in July, and his supporters are devout. Yes, of course, he’s still a long shot. But that he’s tapped into something big and deep is undeniable.

Dean Phillips

(Glen Stubbe via Getty Images)

A few years ago, the 54-year-old Minnesota congressman was in Beverly Hills at a lunch with supporters, and someone asked him: What’s the hardest thing about running as a Democrat in the Age of Trump? 

Phillips replied, “Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.” When both presidents entered the White House, he explained, they were middle-class; by the time they left, they were millionaires. That wasn’t how politics was supposed to work. Their success was evidence of the system’s failure.

It’s unclear whether Phillips—who came out of the blue in 2018 to defeat a Republican incumbent by 11 percentage points—is serious about challenging Biden for the nomination, but we know he met with potential donors two weeks back in New York to gauge interest. 

And last week, in an interview with CNN, he urged Biden to “invite people” to challenge him for the nomination. Is he one of those people? 

“I think I’m able and prepared for the job, but I’m a third-term congressman, I have 60,000 Twitter followers and $250,000 in my campaign account,” he said. “There are people ready to go.” 

But he hasn’t ruled out running. As he told Axios: he’s “not closing the door, but holding it open for others.”

This much is indisputable: Phillips knows business—he successfully ran his family’s business, Phillips Distilling Company—and he grasps that Americans’ underlying problems are economic, not cultural. Voters want affordable healthcare; they want the swamp drained (Phillips doesn’t take money from political action committees); they do not want to defund the cops. 

Publicly, most elected Democrats have been mute since Phillips suggested Democratic voters deserve a presidential primary. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called the congressman “a distracting issue” and suggested everyone “stays in their own lane.”

But Gregg Hurwitz, the best-selling novelist who helped Phillips with messaging during this 2018 congressional run, told me: “This is the mind game a lot of Democrats play. Anything that distracts from the accepted party line enhances Trump and hastens the end of the world. A lot of people, me included, are like, ‘Fuck you. We need a battle of ideas.’ ”

Gavin Newsom

(John G. Mabanglo via Getty Images)

Of course the 55-year-old California governor wants to be president. Of course he hopes Biden steps down. Of course he’s pledged not to challenge him. In June, Newsom said he wouldn’t challenge the president on “God’s green earth.”

But that doesn’t mean, given enough prodding, the governor wouldn’t do exactly that. (The textbook definition of a politician is he who can do whatever he’s literally just sworn he would never do. And Newsom isn’t just any politician. He’s Mr. Covid Lockdown Dining at the French Laundry.)

Isn’t that the point of the proposed debate with DeSantis? To manufacture a showdown between two potential presidential gladiators, to make influential Democrats salivate, to make them wonder what it would be like to run this guy instead of the incumbent? To make them jump on a Zoom with Sacramento and pledge to launch a super PAC that would spend $50 million, $100 million—whatever it takes—to win the nomination and save America from Trump II?

It cannot be an accident that two of the three states Newsom proposed for his debate with DeSantis are Nevada and Georgia—among the first four in the Democratic primaries.

Democratic bundlers privately insist this is all about 2028, not 2024. “Newsom is doing this to raise his national profile given his presidential ambitions,” one Democratic bundler texted me. “He will destroy DeSantis.” 

Another chimed in: “He hates him. And he wants to be at the on deck circle if something goes askew with Biden.”

Gretchen Whitmer

(Bill Pugliano via Getty Images)

And then there’s the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, the Democrat that most influential, wealthy Democrats would actually love to see run for president.

“We had an event for her,” one bundler in Los Angeles told me. “She’s fantastic.” Everyone else I spoke with said more or less the same thing. “So smart.” “So dynamic.” “So much energy.” (Whitmer is 51.)

Just like the California governor, Whitmer insists there is no way she’s running in 2024. She just got reelected. She’s focused on her constituents. 

But she also just announced her new political action committee—the Fight Like Hell PAC, which is focused on abortion rights and will enable Whitmer to raise money for Democrats nationwide and rack up lots of favors. 

And, as the governor notes, she did recently win reelection. By 11 points. And she helped take back the state legislature—in Michigan, a must-win state that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 and Joe Biden narrowly flipped in 2020, winning by 154,000 votes. 

Yep, Biden could do it again. But he could also lose. As of early August, polls showed Trump tied with Biden in Michigan. 

Joe Manchin

(Jemal Countess via Getty Images for JDRF)

If the West Virginia senator runs for president on the nonpartisan, or post-partisan, No Labels ticket, he wouldn’t be a Democrat—so, strictly speaking, he’s not really a Democratic alternative to Biden. He’s just an alternative.

But he’s a Democrat right now—a powerful one. And even though he seems to offend pretty much every progressive in America, he descends from the old, economic-populist tradition that RFK Jr. and Dean Phillips think the party needs to return to. 

Democrats’ response to this so far has been, no surprise, to attack Manchin or No Labels. 

“I became very familiar with No Labels right after the 2016 election,” a Democrat close to Vice President Kamala Harris texted me. “On paper, it sounded like an amazing organization. Bringing people back to the middle. After meeting with them a number of times, both in D.C. and Los Angeles, it was painfully evident to me it’s a shill for the Republican party.”

But didn’t Manchin co-author the Inflation Reduction Act—Biden’s No. 1 accomplishment to date? And didn’t he oppose Donald Trump 50 percent of the time when Trump was president? True, he supported him 50 percent of the time as well, but that hardly makes him a “Republican shill.” It makes him a Democrat from a state that Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020.

Biden’s term ends prematurely

This seems the likeliest scenario, because there are a lot of things that could go south between now and the first Democratic primary, on February 3, 2024, in South Carolina. The Hunter Biden probe could turn up something really devastating (consider Friday’s announcement that the attorney general is appointing a special counsel to probe deeper into Hunter’s various shenanigans). Biden could get tired of the three-ring circus and step down. He could get seriously ill. He could die.

All of which would mean Vice President Harris becomes President Harris, and the Democratic field cracks wide open. Then we’re talking about every Democrat who’s ever aspired to the Oval Office: not just Newsom and Whitmer, but Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, Senators Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Mark Kelly of Arizona, probably a tech billionaire or two. And perhaps AOC, who will turn 35 on October 13, 2024.

That scenario, hard as it may be to fathom right now, is hardly outside the realm of possibility. There’s plenty of time; South Carolina is nearly six months away. 

“What is undeniably true is the economic numbers are frankly borderline awesome, and the political numbers are borderline terrible,” veteran Democratic strategist James Carville told me. Biden’s approval rating stands at 41.2 percent—lower than every president at this stage of their term in the past 75 years except for Jimmy Carter, who lost his 1980 reelection bid badly.

There is, about all this, an analogous disconnect that one encounters these days in corporate-progressive-identitarian circles across America. The pretending. The acting as though something obviously or probably not true is, in fact, completely true, and any questioning of that supposed truth isn’t just ill-informed but heretical: 

The 45th president of the United States was obviously a Russian agent.

Those who even considered the lab-leak theory were obviously trying to veil their anti-Asian hate.

Gender-affirming care for children was obviously good medicine.

Defunding the police would obviously make cities safer.

The diversity, equity, and inclusion complex was obviously a good investment, making all of us less systemically racist.

The Hunter Biden laptop was obviously a nonstory.

The climate alarmists were obviously right that our planet was on schedule to implode shortly.

Until, suddenly, quietly, all those stories started to collapse.

Right now, a story is being told about Joe Biden: that he is the only one who can save us from a second Trump administration; that literally anything that distracts from that mission amounts to a crime against the Constitution; that we can go back to serious elections with candidates in full possession of their faculties only after the republic has been saved.

That’s the lie of the illiberal faction trying to pull the proverbial wool over a nation’s eyes. The best time for a serious election with the very best candidates is right now. It is never tomorrow or the next cycle or the cycle after that, and anyone who says as much is propagandizing for a faith, not a politics or program that might actually deliver us from our many demons.

Peter Savodnik is an editor and writer for The Free Press. Read his piece about RFK Jr. and the Populist Wave here.

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January 14, 2025 Heather Cox Richardson

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Shortly after midnight last night, the Justice Department released special counsel Jack Smith’s final report on former president Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The 137-page report concludes that “substantial evidence demonstrates that Mr. Trump…engaged in an unprecedented criminal effort to overturn the legitimate results of the election in order to retain power.”

The report explains the case Smith and his team compiled against Trump. It outlines the ways in which evidence proved Trump broke laws, and it lays out the federal interests served by prosecuting Trump. It explains how the team investigated Trump, interviewing more than 250 people and obtaining the testimony of more than 55 witnesses before a grand jury, and how Justice Department policy governed that investigation. It also explains how Trump’s litigation and the U.S. Supreme Court’s surprising determination that Trump enjoyed immunity from prosecution for breaking laws as part of his official duties dramatically slowed the prosecution.

There is little in the part of the report covering Trump’s behavior that was not already public information. The report explains how Trump lied that he won the 2020 presidential election and continued to lie even when his own appointees and employees told him he had lost. It lays out how he pressured state officials to throw out votes for his opponent, then-president-elect Joe Biden, and how he and his cronies recruited false electors in key states Trump lost to create slates of false electoral votes.

It explains how Trump tried to force Justice Department officials to support his lie and to trick states into rescinding their electoral votes for Biden and how, finally, he pressured his vice president, Mike Pence, to either throw out votes for Biden or send state counts back to the states. When Pence refused, correctly asserting that he had no such power, Trump urged his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol. He refused to call them off for hours.

Smith explained that the Justice Department concluded that Trump was guilty on four counts, including conspiracy to defraud the United States by trying “to interfere with or obstruct one of its lawful governmental functions by deceit, craft or trickery, or at least by means that are dishonest”; obstruction and conspiracy to obstruct by creating false evidence; and conspiracy against rights by trying to take away people’s right to vote for president.

The report explains why the Justice Department did not bring charges against Trump for insurrection, noting that such cases are rare and definitions of “insurrection” are unclear, raising concerns that such a charge would endanger the larger case.

The report explained that prosecuting Trump served important national interests. The government has an interest in the integrity of the country’s process for “collecting, counting, and certifying presidential elections.” It cares about “a peaceful and orderly transition of presidential power.” It cares that “every citizen’s vote is counted” and about “protecting public officials and government workers from violence.” Finally, it cares about “the fair and even-handed enforcement of the law.”

While the report contained little new information, what jumped out from its stark recitation of the events of late 2020 and early 2021 was the power of Trump’s lies. There was no evidence that he won the 2020 election; to the contrary, all evidence showed he lost it. Even he didn’t appear to believe he had won. And yet, by the sheer power of repeating the lie that he had won and getting his cronies to repeat it, along with embellishments that were also lies—about suitcases of ballots, and thumb drives, and voting machines, and so on—he induced his followers to try to overthrow a free and fair election and install him in the presidency.

He continued this disinformation after he left office, and then engaged in lawfare, with both him and friendly witnesses slowing down his cases by challenging subpoenas until there were no more avenues to challenge them. And then the U.S. Supreme Court stepped in.

The report calls out the extraordinary July 2024 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in Trump v. United States declaring that presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts. “Before this case,” the report reads, “no court had ever found that Presidents are immune from criminal responsibility for their official acts, and no text in the Constitution explicitly confers such criminal immunity on the President.” It continued: “[N]o President whose conduct was investigated (other than Mr. Trump) ever claimed absolute criminal immunity for all official acts.”

The report quoted the dissent of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, noting that the decision of the Republican-appointed justices “effectively creates a law-free zone around the President, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the Founding.”

That observation hits hard today, as January 14 is officially Ratification Day, the anniversary of the day in 1784 when members of the Confederation Congress ratified the Treaty of Paris that ended the Revolutionary War and formally recognized the independence of the United States from Great Britain. The colonists had thrown off monarchy and determined to have a government of laws, not of men.

But Trump threw off that bedrock principle with a lie. His success recalls how Confederates who lost the Civil War resurrected their cause by claiming that the lenience of General Ulysses S. Grant of the United States toward officers and soldiers who surrendered at Appomattox Court House in April 1865 showed not the mercy of a victor but rather an understanding that the Confederates’ defense of human slavery was superior to the ideas of those trying to preserve the United States as a land based in the idea that all men were created equal.

When no punishment was forthcoming for those who had tried to destroy the United States, that story of Appomattox became the myth of the Lost Cause, defending the racial hierarchies of the Old South and attacking the federal government that tried to make opportunity and equal rights available for everyone. In response to federal protection of Black rights after 1948, when President Harry Truman desegregated the U.S. military, Confederate symbols and Confederate ideology began their return to the front of American culture, where they fed the reactionary right. The myth of the Lost Cause and Trump’s lie came together in the rioters who carried the Confederate battle flag when they breached the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, Fox News Channel host Pete Hegseth, is adamant about restoring the names of Confederate generals to U.S. military installations. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee began today.

The defense secretary oversees about 1.3 million active-duty troops and another 1.4 million in the National Guard and employed in Reserves and civilian positions, as well as a budget of more than $800 billion. Hegseth has none of the usual qualifications of defense secretaries. As Benjamin Wittes of Lawfare pointed out today, he has “never held a policy role…never run anything larger than a company of 200 soldiers…never been elected to anything.”

Hegseth suggested his lack of qualifications was a strength, saying in his opening statement that while “[i]t is true that I don’t have a similar biography to Defense Secretaries of the last 30 years…as President Trump…told me, we’ve repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly ‘the right credentials’…and where has it gotten us? He believes, and I humbly agree, that it’s time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm.”

The “dust on his boots” claim was designed to make Hegseth’s authenticity outweigh his lack of credentials, but former Marine pilot Amy McGrath pointed out that Trump’s defense secretary James Mattis and Biden’s defense secretary Lloyd Austin, both of whom reached the top ranks of the military, each came from the infantry.

Hegseth has settled an accusation of sexual assault, appears to have a history of alcohol abuse, and has been accused of financial mismanagement at two small veterans’ nonprofits. But he appears to embody the sort of strongman ethos Trump craves. Jonathan Chait of The Atlantic did a deep dive into Hegseth’s recent books and concluded that Hegseth “considers himself to be at war with basically everybody to Trump’s left, and it is by no means clear that he means war metaphorically.” Hegseth’s books suggest he thinks that everything that does not support the MAGA worldview is “Marxist,” including voters choosing Democrats at the voting booth. He calls for the “categorical defeat of the Left” and says that without its “utter annihilation,” “America cannot, and will not, survive.”

When Hegseth was in the Army National Guard, a fellow service member who was the unit’s security guard and on an anti-terrorism team flagged Hegseth to their unit’s leadership because one of his tattoos is used by white supremacists. Extremist tattoos are prohibited by army regulations. Hegseth lobbied Trump to intervene in the cases of service members accused of war crimes, and he cheered on Trump’s January 6, 2021, rally. Hegseth has said women do not belong in combat and has been vocal about his opposition to the equity and inclusion measures in the military that he calls “woke.”

Wittes noted after today’s hearing that “[t]he words ‘Russia’ and ‘Ukraine’ barely came up. The words ‘China’ and ‘Taiwan’ made only marginally more conspicuous an appearance. The defense of Europe? One would hardly know such a place as Europe even existed. By contrast, the words ‘lethality,’ ‘woke,’ and ‘DEI’ came up repeatedly. The nominee sparred with members of the committee over the difference between ‘equality’ and ‘equity.’”

Senate Armed Services Committee chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) spoke today in favor of Hegseth, and Republicans initially uncomfortable with the nominee appear to be coming around to supporting him. But Hegseth refused to meet with Democrats on the committee, and they made it clear that they will not make the vote easy for Republicans.

The top Democrat on the committee, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) said he did not believe Hegseth was qualified for the position. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) exposed his lack of knowledge about U.S. allies and bluntly told him he was unqualified, later telling MSNBC that Hegseth will be an easy target for adversaries with blackmail material.

Hegseth told the armed services committee that all the negative information about him was part of a “smear campaign,” at the same time that he refused to say he would refuse to shoot peaceful protesters in the legs or refuse an unconstitutional order.

After the release of Jack Smith’s report, Trump posted on his social media channel that regardless of what he had done to the country, voters had exonerated him: “Jack is a lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the Election, which I won in a landslide,” he wrote, lying about a victory in which more voters chose someone other than him. “THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN!!!”

It’s as if the Confederates’ descendants have captured the government of the United States.

Notes:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25486132-report-of-special-counsel-smith-volume-1-january-2025/

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/06-04-02-0026-0004

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/pete-hegseth-confirmation-hearing/card/what-are-the-financial-mismanagement-allegations-surrounding-hegseth–W06NChwmoFjJlciYjNOD

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-situation–the-cult-of-unqualified-authenticity

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance
Jack Smith’s Report & Beyond
We’ve now seen Volume 1 of Jack Smith’s report, released just after midnight when Judge Aileen Cannon’s order prohibiting DOJ from making it public lapsed. We already knew a lot of the information in Volume 1, which covered the January 6/election fraud case Smith charged Donald Trump with in Washington, D.C. We know less about the classified documents c…
Read more

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/pete-hegseth-books-trump/680744/

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/13/politics/pete-hegseth-confederate-generals-military-bases/index.html

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Pete Hegseth Shows His Hand Eli Lake

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If you want to know what a post-woke military might look like, Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Pentagon just gave America a preview.

At his nomination hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Pete Hegseth pledged that he would direct his secretary of the Navy to focus on rebuilding the fleet instead of climate change. His secretary of the Army would focus on making war more lethal and effective, instead of figuring out how to build tanks that don’t run on gasoline. And the standards for military promotion would be based on merit, not a person’s skin color, sexuality, or gender.

Hegseth said that under his leadership, he would take steps to reverse the Pentagon’s decision to fire tens of thousands of service members who refused to take the Covid vaccine. “In President Trump’s Defense Department they will be apologized to. They will be reinstituted with pay and rank,” the nominee said.

It was a contentious hearing, as Democrats attacked Hegseth for everything from allegations of his marital infidelity and sexual assault to his lack of experience managing an organization as large and complex as the Pentagon. But the Republicans made Hegseth out to be the real victim, and by the time the hearing ended, it seemed like a near lock that he’ll be confirmed.


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Porn Is Inevitable River Page

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American lawmakers are about to determine the future of pornography, or they’re trying, at least. In recent years, nineteen states—most of them Republican-led—have passed legislation that requires any site with a significant amount of adult content to prove all its users are over 18. Most recently, on New Year’s Day, a new law called HB 3 took effect in my home state of Florida, where porn sites now face fines of up to $50,000 for every violation. But this week, such laws could be found unconstitutional.

This is all thanks to the Free Speech Coalition, a sort of NRA for pornographers, which has sued Texas attorney general Ken Paxton, a religious hard-liner, over that state’s age verification law. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear FSC’s case, which argues that these porn laws undermine free speech, infringe on privacy, and hurt American companies, while doing nothing to block foreign and fringe sites that don’t comply with U.S. laws.

The rationale behind the laws is understandable: Studies have shown that pornography consumption by teenagers can lead to misogynistic attitudes and increased sexual aggression. It’s also linked to mental health problems and increased rates of unsafe sex. More to the point, most parents are uncomfortable with the idea of their children having access to terabytes worth of hardcore pornography at the touch of a button.

But these laws are fundamentally pointless. First etched into mammoth tusks 40,000 years ago, porn predates the written word. It is inevitable—and in the internet age, infinitely accessible—even in places where so-called “porn bans” have been enacted.


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