Crypto News
The Bitcoin Halving: Why This Time Could Be Different
The fourth Bitcoin halving is almost upon us, and this one has the potential for some very interesting surprises. This halving marks the reduction of the Bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 BTC every block to 3.125 BTC per block. These supply reductions occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, as part of Bitcoin’s gradual, disinflationary approach to its final capped supply in circulation.
The finite supply of 21 million coins is a, if not the, foundational characteristic of Bitcoin. This predictability of supply and inflation rate has been at the heart of what has driven demand and belief in bitcoin as a superior form of money. The regular supply halving is the mechanism by which that finite supply is ultimately enacted.
The halvings over time are the driver behind one of the most fundamental shifts of Bitcoin incentives in the long term: the move from miners being funded by newly issued coins from the coinbase subsidy — the block reward — to being funded dominantly by the transaction fee revenue from users moving bitcoin on-chain.
As Satoshi said in Section 6 (Incentives) of the whitepaper:
“The incentive can also be funded with transaction fees. If the output value of a transaction is less than its input value, the difference is a transaction fee that is added to the incentive value of the block containing the transaction. Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free.”
Historically the halving has correlated with a massive appreciation in the price of bitcoin, offsetting the impact of the miners’ subsidy being cut in half. Miners’ bills are paid in fiat, meaning that if the price of bitcoin appreciates, resulting in a larger income in dollar terms for the lower amount of bitcoin earned per block, the negative impact on mining operation is cushioned.
In light of the last market cycle, with not even a 4x appreciation from the prior all time high, the degree to which price appreciation will cushion miners from the effects of the halving is an assumption that might not consistently hold true. This coming halving, the inflation rate of bitcoin will drop for the first time below 1%. If the next market cycle plays out similarly to the previous one, with much lower upwards movement than seen historically, this halving could have a materially negative impact on existing miners.
This makes the fee revenue miners can collect from transactions more important than ever, and it will continue to become more central to their sustainability from a business perspective as block height increases and successive halvings occur. Either fee revenue has to increase, or the price needs to appreciate at a minimum by 2x each halving in order to make up for the decrease in subsidy revenue. As bullish as most Bitcoiners can be, the notion that a doubling in price is guaranteed to happen every four years, in perpetuity, is a dubious assumption at best.
Love them or hate them, BRC-20 tokens and Inscriptions have shifted the entire dynamic of the mempool, pushing fees from somewhere in the ballpark of 0.1-0.2 BTC per block prior to their existence, to the somewhat volatile average of 1-2 BTC as of late — regularly spiking far in excess of that.
The New Factor This Time
Ordinals present a very new incentive dynamic to the halving this go around that was not present at any prior halving in Bitcoin’s history. Rare sats. At the heart of Ordinals Theory is that satoshis from specific blocks can be tracked and “owned” based on its arbitrary interpretation of the transaction history of the blockchain, based on assuming specific amounts sent to specific outputs “send that sat” there. The other aspect of the theory is assigning rarity values to specific sats. Each block has a coinbase, thus producing an ordinal. But each block is different in importance to the scheme. Each normal block produces an “uncommon” sat, the first block of each difficulty adjustment produces a “rare” sat, and the first block of each halving cycle produces an “epic” sat.
This halving will be the first one since the widespread adoption of Ordinal Theory by a subset of Bitcoin users. There has never been the production of an “epic” sat while there was material market demand for it from a large and developed ecosystem. The market demand for that specific sat could wind up being valued at absurd multiples of what the coinbase reward itself is valued at in terms of just fungible satoshis.
The fact that a large market segment in the Bitcoin space would value that single coinbase drastically higher than any other creates an incentive for miners to fight over it by reorganizing the blockchain immediately after the halving. The only time such a thing has happened in history was during the very first halving, when the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Some miners continued trying to mine blocks rewarding 50 BTC in the coinbase after the supply cut, and gave up shortly after when the rest of the network ignored their efforts. This time around, the incentive to reorg isn’t based around ignoring the consensus rules and hoping people come along to your side, it’s fighting over who is allowed to mine a completely valid block because of the value collectors will ascribe to that single coinbase.
There are no guarantees that such a reorg will actually occur, but there is a very large financial incentive for miners to do so. If it does occur, the length for which it will go on ultimately depends on how much that “epic” sat could be worth on the market to pay for the lost revenue from fighting over a single block rather than progressing the chain.
Each halving in Bitcoin’s history has been a pivotal event people watch, but this go around it has the potential to be much more interesting than past halvings.
How An Epic Sat Battle Could Play Out
There are a few ways this could play out in my opinion. The first and most obvious way is that nothing happens. For whatever reason, miners do not judge that the potential market value of the first “epic” sat mined since Ordinals adoption took off is worth the opportunity cost of wasting energy reorging the blockchain and foregoing the money they could make by simply mining the next block. If miners do not think the extra premium the ordinal can fetch is worth the cost of giving up moving on to the next block, they simply won’t do it.
The next possibility is a result of nuanced scales of economy. Imagine a larger scale mining operation can afford to risk more “lost blocks” engaging in a reorg fight over the “epic” sat. That larger miner with more capital to put on the table can afford to take a larger risk. In this scenario, we might see a few odd reorg attempts by larger miners with smaller operations not even trying, and essentially minimal disruption. This would play out if miners think there is some premium they can acquire for the ordinal, but not a massive premium worth serious disruption to the network.
The last scenario would be if a market develops bidding for the “epic” sat ahead of time, and miners can have a clear picture that the ordinal is valued massively above the market value of the fungible sat itself. In this case, miners may fight over that block for an extended period of time. The logic behind not reorging the blockchain is that you are losing money, you are not only forgoing the reward of just mining the next block, but you are also continuing to incur the cost of running your mining operations. In a situation where the market is publicly signaling how much the “epic” sat is worth, miners have a very clear idea of how long they can forgo moving onto the next block and still wind up with a net profit by attaining the post-halving coinbase reward with the ordinal. In this scenario the network could see substantial disruption until miners begin approaching the point of incurring a guaranteed loss even if they do successfully wind up mining this block without it being reorged.
Regardless of which way things actually play out, this is going to be a factor to consider each halving going forward unless the demand and marketplace for ordinals dies off.
The fourth Bitcoin halving is approaching, and this one has the potential to be a very different experience from prior halvings.
The day Bitcoiners have been waiting for is finally here. Donald Trump, the first-ever pro-Bitcoin president of the United States, is officially being inaugurated today, January 20, 2025. After a historic campaign in which he famously turned his stance around and championed Bitcoin and crypto throughout 2024, Bitcoiners are eagerly watching to see his promises come to life.
Trump’s campaign was filled with bold commitments to the Bitcoin and crypto industry: national bitcoin reserves, freeing Ross Ulbricht, making the United States the crypto capital of the world, and more. Today marks the beginning of his presidency, and these promises are expected to roll out in the days ahead.
Bitcoin Magazine is thrilled to celebrate this monumental moment in Bitcoin history by bringing you live coverage of the inauguration from PubKey NYC starting at 10:00 a.m. EST.
LIVE: DONALD TRUMP INAUGURATION | AMERICA’S FIRST #BITCOIN PRESIDENT https://t.co/KuwGYgUukP
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 20, 2025
The livestream will feature a recap of Trump’s campaign trail, highlighting key moments when he voiced his support for Bitcoin. We’ll be joined by well-known leaders in the Bitcoin space, who will share their predictions and debate the potential impact of the Trump administration on Bitcoin’s future.
This celebratory event brings together Bitcoin and crypto community members to discuss, debate, and reflect on what Trump’s presidency could mean for Bitcoin adoption and regulation.
Don’t miss the action—Catch the Bitcoin Magazine livestream coverage on X, YouTube and Rumble starting today, January 20, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the first pro-Bitcoin U.S. president is here—join Bitcoin Magazine’s live coverage at 10 a.m. EST!
Today, the BTCPay Server Foundation was awarded a $25,000 grant paid directly in bitcoin from Unbank, a cash focused Bitcoin exchange, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine. The grant will be paid out to contributors working on developing new features, open-source payment innovation, and maintenance of BTCPay Server’s Greenfield APIs and codebase.
“Unbank’s support is a testament to the growing recognition of open-source payment solutions in the Bitcoin ecosystem,” said BTCPay Server core contributor R0ckstar Dev. “This grant will help our efforts to enhance BTCPay Server’s capabilities and reach.”
Unbank, which has become a leading bitcoin ATM network with over 830 ATMs and over 30,000 partner locations, is also utilizing BTCPay Server to process bitcoin sell transactions within their app.
“We love using BTCPay Server in our operations,” Emilio Pagan-Yourno, CEO and COO of Unbank. “When customers buy Bitcoin at our ATMs, we rely on their API to batch and broadcast transactions every 15 minutes. Supporting BTCPay Server is not just essential for our business — it’s a privilege to contribute to the FOSS ecosystem that powers financial freedom.”
Last summer, BTCPay filmed and released a documentary covering the use of bitcoin as a means of exchange at the world’s largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville. BTCPay, in collaboration with Jack Maller’s company Strike, enabled every vendor at the conference to accept bitcoin as payment.
The grant will help BTCPay continue to work on open-source payment development.
When the $TRUMP meme coin dropped Friday evening, no one was surprised. Or at least, they shouldn’t have been. He has a knack for jumping headfirst into endeavors he thinks he can make money on, in self-promoting fashion, that often end in disaster. Some of these ventures include Trump Airlines, Trump Vodka, Trump Steaks, Trump University, Trump Magazine, Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino, Trump Mortgage, Trump: The Game. Crypto is the next game in town he’s decided to throw his hat into.
I’ve already written articles and talked at various lengths about Trump leaning into the crypto space to earn votes in this past election that in many ways was quite successful. At Bitcoin Nashville this past summer, in an effort to garner support for his presidential candidacy, Trump said some notable things including that America will become “the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world,” that he would fire Gary Gensler, and that he wants all remaining bitcoin to be made in America (concerning from a decentralized point of view, and highly implausible in reality). He also famously said that he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht on Day one, which if he does I will be the first to give credit where credit is due. (For more on this I recommend watching the recent Reason documentary on why Ross should be freed).
Crypto is Donald Trump’s next frontier and combines several things he absolutely loves when it comes to business deals – Quick easy money, self-promotion, America first messaging, and little bureaucratic friction standing in his way. So, what is $TRUMP coin?
It’s built on the Solana blockchain with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. Initially, 200 million tokens are available for circulation, while the remaining 800 million are held by CIC Digital, a Trump Organization affiliate, subject to a three-year lock-up period (which means the Trump family holds 80% of supply…). Following its launch, the $TRUMP coin’s market cap surged, reaching approximately $6 billion. The coin’s price peaked at $33.7. The $TRUMP coin was marketed as a means for supporters to express their alignment with Trump’s ideals, rather than as an investment opportunity, which is hogwash for the pump and dump self-enrichment scheme that he is in my opinion immoral and unethical for creating, and investors (oops, guess we should say “fans”) are stupid for taking part in.
With inauguration on Monday, we’re entering uncharted territory where it’s likely Trump will issue Executive Orders relating to bitcoin and crypto, and now emboldened by the presidency, lack of legal worries, and supporters that I truly believe would be fine with whatever he does. As he famously quoted, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”
Some of these actions could be positive for the Bitcoin industry and advocates in the United States. But many of his actions could also equally benefit the broader crypto space that is rife with pump-and-dump scam coins and useless get rich quick schemes for wealthy insiders and people who have lobbied him throughout this last cycle. The pump and dump crypto landscape, his goofy coins and NFT’s, make sense to Trump. In fact, I’m betting he truly believes this is crypto’s purpose, while knowing little about Bitcoin. Trump has repeatedly said he has “fun with crypto” and ended his keynote address at the Bitcoin Conference this past summer by saying “have a good time with your bitcoin and your crypto and everything else that you’re playing with.” Trump’s experience in and views of crypto and bitcoin are around fun and making easy money. But with Bitcoin, many of us in the space are fighting for much more, which includes Bitcoin’s many use-cases as censorship resistance digital currency, digital gold, a medium of exchange to use in self-custody and via privacy preserving tools, a powerful tool for human rights, and much more. This isn’t a gamble for us…it’s the future of money that challenges the dollar and central bank rule.
If Trump really began to grasp this, based on his track record and previous statements on Bitcoin, he’d be quite against this use of Bitcoin. Or perhaps he knows what Bitcoin is at some level, and would rather promote the “fun” meme coins, and maybe Bitcoin as digital gold, but nothing more. He did after all say in 2021, quite clearly, “Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam. I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar.” He added that he wanted the dollar to be “the currency of the world.” (For more on this concept I’d highly recommend following Mark Goodwin and his work on the bitcoin dollar.)
Trump wants you to keep playing with crypto, funneling money to his organizations, but it’s unlikely he’d be a fan of anyone using bitcoin as a competitor to the dollar, circumventing traditional finance or using privacy tools (particularly if you are an adversary or from what he deems a left/woke cause, which perhaps one day he’d classify our nonprofit The Progressive Bitcoiner as). I’ll keep promoting Bitcoin as resistance money, and hope you’ll join me, rather than endlessly gambling on crypto “and everything else you’re playing with.”
This is a guest post by Trey Walsh. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
$TRUMP Coin is nothing more than a way to extract money from the crypto ecosystem.
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