The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has historically been one of the most effective tools for identifying market cycle tops and bottoms in Bitcoin. Today, we’re excited to share an enhancement to this metric that makes it even more insightful for today’s dynamic market conditions.

What Is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score?

The MVRV Z-Score is derived by analyzing the ratio between Bitcoin’s realized cap (the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin in circulation) and its market cap (current network valuation). By standardizing this ratio using Bitcoin’s price volatility (measured as the standard deviation), the Z-Score highlights periods of overvaluation or undervaluation relative to historical norms.

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Peaks in the red zone signal overvaluation, suggesting optimal profit-taking opportunities. Bottoms in the green zone indicate undervaluation, often marking strong accumulation opportunities. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate in pinpointing major market cycle extremes.

While powerful, the traditional MVRV Z-Score has its limitations. In past cycles, the Z-Score reached values of 9–10 during market tops. However, in the last cycle, the score only reached around 7. This may be due to the rounded double-peak cycle instead of the sharp blow-off top we usually experience. Regardless, there’s the necessity to factor in the evolving market dynamics, with increasing institutional involvement and changing investor behavior.

The Enhanced MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score standardizes the raw MVRV data using Bitcoin’s entire price history, which includes the extreme volatility of its early years. As Bitcoin matures, these early data points may distort its relevance to current market conditions. To address these challenges, we’ve developed the MVRV Z-Score 2YR Rolling. Instead of using Bitcoin’s entire price history, this version calculates volatility based only on the previous two years of data.

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This approach better accounts for Bitcoin’s growing market cap and shifting dynamics and ensures the metric adapts to more recent trends, offering greater accuracy for contemporary market analysis. It still excels at identifying market cycle tops and bottoms but adapts to modern conditions. In the last cycle, this version captured a higher peak value than the traditional Z-Score, aligning more closely with 2017’s price action. On the downside, it continues to identify strong accumulation zones with high precision.

Raw MVRV Ratio

Another complementary approach involves analyzing the MVRV ratio without standardizing for volatility. By doing so, we can see the previous cycle’s MVRV ratio peaked at 3.96, compared to 4.72 in the cycle before that. These values suggest less deviation, potentially offering a more stable framework for projecting future price targets.

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Assuming a realized price of $60,000 (factoring in the current projected increase over the next six months) and an MVRV ratio of 3.96, a potential peak price could be close to $240,000. If diminishing returns reduce the ratio to 3.0, the peak price might still reach $180,000.

Conclusion

While the MVRV Z-Score is still one of the most effective tools for timing market cycle peaks and bottoms, we need to be prepared for this metric potentially not reaching similar highs as prior cycles. By adapting this data to better factor in the changing market dynamics of Bitcoin, we can account for reduced volatility as BTC grows.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Improving The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

​ We’ve enhanced the MVRV Z-Score to better reflect Bitcoin’s evolving market dynamics and reduced volatility. 

According to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine, an Office of California Assemblymember, Republican Phillip Chen, has appointed Proof of Workforce, a Santa Monica-based non-profit helping workers, unions, pensions, and municipalities with education-based Bitcoin adoption, to work on a variety of Bitcoin related initiatives and help with drafting an official bill for an upcoming legislative session.

“As to where and how Bitcoin and digital assets get into the trajectory of California, much is undetermined,” said Chen. “What is certain is that this industry is growing in adoption everyday, with Bitcoin serving as a global network and asset, representing 2 trillion dollars in value. Therefore, it’s important we take a meaningful look into its role in our great state of California.”

Proof of Workforce, led by its founder Dom Bei, will be advising Chen’s policy team, working on education and community engagement, and researching how Bitcoin can support and rebuild California’s infrastructure and communities.

“Bitcoin’s Genesis story has deep roots in California,” commented Bei. “A huge part of that Genesis Story is an innovative network, designed to protect the time, energy, and value of everyday, working people. Bitcoin isn’t partisan, it’s uniquely Californian.”

This isn’t Proof of Workforce’s first time helping onboard governments in California to Bitcoin. Last summer, Proof of Workforce partnered with the City of Santa Monica to open an official Bitcoin office. Since opening, the office has seen “an overwhelming amount of interest”, according to the city’s Mayor Lana Negrete. Santa Monica’s City Manager has also stated that other cities have reached out to learn more about their Bitcoin endeavors.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Santa Monica City Manager says “several other cities have reached out to learn more” about their official #Bitcoin Office 👀

“The Bitcoin Office has seen significant interest from the public” 🚀pic.twitter.com/ortfFTCx1S

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 9, 2024

Mass adoption starts with initiatives like this. Bitcoin adoption within California’s government is beginning and with the United States embracing Bitcoin under President Trump, it is very likely that the adoption of this asset within the state government will continue over the coming years.

Over the years I’ve watched Dom Bei and Proof of Workforce onboard Careers in Government, firefighter unions in America, El Salvador, and Africa, workers, and more to Bitcoin. They’re doing it right by helping these organizations buy and hold their own bitcoin keys, making sure they’re all properly educated on not just bitcoin the asset but Bitcoin the network as well. One by one, Proof of Workforce is making real change that impacts people’s daily lives.

If you are not following Bei and Proof of Workforce on X, you should be. After talking with Dom personally, they are working on a lot of exciting initiatives that you’ll want to hear about — stay tuned.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

​ Bitcoin focused non-profit Proof of Workforce is working with the Office of California on legislation and Bitcoin initiatives. 

As the Bitcoin market steps into 2025, investors are keenly analyzing seasonal trends and historical data to predict what February might hold. With Bitcoin’s cyclical nature often tied to its halving events, historical insights provide a valuable roadmap for navigating future performance. By examining historical data—including Bitcoin’s average monthly returns and its post-halving February performance—we aim to provide a clear picture of what February 2025 might look like.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Seasonality

The first chart, “Bitcoin Seasonality,” highlights average monthly returns from 2010 to the latest monthly close. The data underscores Bitcoin’s best-performing months and its cyclical tendencies. February has historically shown an average return of 13.62%, ranking it as one of the stronger months for Bitcoin performance.

Notably, November stands out with the highest average return at 43.74%, followed by October at 19.46%. Conversely, September has historically been the weakest month with an average return of -1.83%. February’s solid average places it in the upper tier of Bitcoin’s seasonality, offering investors hope for positive returns in early 2025.

Historical Performance of February in Post-Halving Years

A deeper dive into Bitcoin’s historical February returns reveals fascinating insights for years that follow a halving event. Bitcoin’s halving mechanism—which occurs roughly every four years—reduces block rewards by half, creating a supply shock that has historically driven price increases. February’s performance in these post-halving years has consistently been positive:

• 2013 (Post-2012 Halving): 62.71%
• 2017 (Post-2016 Halving): 22.71%
• 2021 (Post-2020 Halving): 36.80%

The average return across these three years is an impressive 40.74%. Each of these Februarys reflects the bullish momentum that often follows halving events, driven by reduced Bitcoin supply issuance and increased market demand.

Related: We’re Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

January 2025’s Performance Sets the Stage

While February 2025 is yet to unfold, the year began with a modest 7.28% return to date in January, as shown in the “Monthly Returns Heatmap.” January’s positive performance hints at a continuation of bullish sentiment in the early months of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving patterns. If February 2025 follows the trajectory of past post-halving years, it could see returns in the range of 22% to 63%, with an average expectation around 40%.

What Drives February’s Strong Post-Halving Performance?

Several factors contribute to February’s historical strength in post-halving years:

1. Supply Shock: The halving reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation, increasing scarcity and driving price appreciation.
2. Market Momentum: Investors often respond to the halving event with increased enthusiasm, pushing prices higher in the months following the event.
3. Institutional Interest: In recent cycles, institutional adoption has accelerated post-halving, adding significant capital inflows to the market.

Key Takeaways for February 2025

Investors should approach February 2025 with cautious optimism. Historical and seasonal data suggest the month has strong potential for positive returns, particularly in the context of Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles. With an average return of 40.74% in past post-halving Februarys, investors might expect similar performance this year, barring any significant macroeconomic or regulatory headwinds.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s history provides a valuable lens through which to view its future performance. February 2025 is shaping up to be another positive month, driven by the same post-halving dynamics that have historically fueled impressive gains. Combining historical data performance with a positive regulatory environment, the incoming pro-Bitcoin administration, and the news that The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued a new guideline (ASU 2023-08) fundamentally changing how Bitcoin is accounted for (Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025), 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for Bitcoin. As always, investors should combine these insights with broader market analysis and remain prepared for Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

By leveraging the lessons of history and the patterns of seasonality, Bitcoin investors can make informed decisions as the market navigates this pivotal year.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

​ Discover how Bitcoin’s historical February performance and post-halving trends provide insights into what investors can expect in 2025.