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Mathematically Forecasting Peak Bitcoin Price For The Next Bull Cycle

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With years of historical data, we can observe the patterns from past bull cycles to become increasingly capable of making predictions about our current cycle. In this analysis, we take a deep dive into when the next Bitcoin peak may occur and at what price level.

The Pi Cycle

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of our most popular tools for analyzing Bitcoin’s cycles. This indicator monitors the 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by 2) moving averages, and when these two lines cross, it has historically been a reliable sign of Bitcoin reaching a cycle peak, typically within just a few days. After multiple months of these two levels drifting apart due to the sideways price action, we’ve just begun to see the 111-day trending back up again to begin closing the gap.

Figure 1: Pi Cycle Top Indicator 111DMA has begun trending upward. View Live Chart 🔍

We can measure the difference between the two averages to better define Bitcoin’s position within bull and bear cycles with the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator. This oscillator trending up again hints that Bitcoin’s next bull run may be just around the corner, with parallels to previous cycles seen in 2016 and 2020.

Figure 2: Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator ending its downtrend. View Live Chart 🔍

Previous Bitcoin Cycles

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull cycles exhibit similar phases: initial rapid growth, a cooling-off period, a second peak, and finally, a significant retracement followed by a new surge.

2016 Cycle: This cycle saw a first peak, a dip, a second peak, and then a full-blown bull market. It’s very similar to the trend we’re currently seeing. Bitcoin’s price reached new highs after these two retracements.

2020-2021 Cycle: The pattern was slightly less pronounced, but a similar trajectory was observed. Bitcoin’s price peaked twice, once during the initial surge and again at the peak of the bull run as BTC was reaching an all-time.

Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we can simulate different growth scenarios based on past cycles. Since the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom oscillator recently turned upward we can overlay the rate of change in the oscillator from the previous cycles to see potential route this cycle.

Figure 3: Oscillator and 111DMA projections based on historical rates of change.

If the 2021 cycle repeats, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around June 29, 2025, signaling a potential Bitcoin peak. If the 2017 cycle is mirrored, the moving averages might not cross until January 28, 2026, suggesting a later peak.

Price Projections

Using these dates, we can also attempt to estimate potential price levels. Historically, Bitcoin’s price exceeded the moving averages significantly at its peak. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin’s price was three times the value of these moving averages at the peak. However, as the market matures, we’ve seen diminishing returns in each cycle, meaning Bitcoin’s price might not increase as dramatically compared to its moving averages as it has historically.

Figure 4: Potential targets for BTC this cycle based on previous cycle projections.

If Bitcoin follows a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, with an increase of about 40% above its moving averages, this would place Bitcoin’s peak at approximately $339,000. Assuming diminishing returns, Bitcoin’s price might only rise about 20% above the moving averages. In this case, the peak price would be closer to $200,000 by mid-2025.

Similarly, if the 2017 extended cycle repeats with diminishing returns, Bitcoin could peak at $466,000 in early 2026, while a more moderate increase might result in a peak price of around $388,000. Although it’s unlikely Bitcoin will hit one million dollars in this cycle, these more tempered projections could still represent substantial gains.

Conclusion

While these projections use well-established data, they’re not guarantees. Every cycle has its unique dynamics influenced by economic conditions, investor sentiment, and regulatory changes. Diminishing returns and potentially even lengthening cycles are likely, reflecting the maturation of Bitcoin’s market.

As Bitcoin’s bull cycle continues to develop, these predictive tools could provide increasingly accurate insights, particularly as the data evolves. However, analysis such as this provides potential outcomes to assist in your risk management and prepare for every outcome.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Mathematically Predicting The Next Bitcoin All Time High

 Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Price Predictions: What Historical Patterns Tell Us About the Next Peak. 

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Russian State Duma Deputy Proposes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

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Today, Russian state-owned domestic news agency, RIA Novosti, reported that State Duma Deputy Anton Tkachev proposed creating a strategic bitcoin reserve for Russia, claiming they have obtained a copy of the document.

Tkachev, from the New People party, sent the proposal to Russia’s Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, to create a bitcoin reserve similar to Russia’s traditional currencies reserves.

“I ask you, dear Anton Germanovich, to assess the feasibility of creating a strategic reserve of bitcoin in Russia by analogy with state reserves in traditional currencies,” the document reportedly stated. “If this initiative is approved, I ask you to submit it to the government of the Russian Federation for further implementation.”

“In conditions of limited access to traditional international payment systems for countries under sanctions, cryptocurrencies are becoming virtually the only instrument for international trade. The Central Bank of Russia is already preparing to launch an experiment in cross-border settlements in cryptocurrency,” the document reportedly goes on to explain.

Tkachev’s document explains that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve could enhance Russia’s financial stability, noting that traditional currency reserves such as the dollar, euro, and yuan are all subject to inflation and sanctions, and that a new alternative independent of any individual country is needed.

This development continues the trend of countries looking to build a strategic bitcoin reserve, including the United States, El Salvador, Brazil, Poland, and others. An initiative led by the United States and President-elect Donald Trump, the U.S. is looking to build a strategic bitcoin reserve of over 1 million bitcoin, which appears to have caught the attention of certain Russian officials.

Just five days ago, Russian president Vladimir Putin publicly stated that no one can ban or prohibit the use of Bitcoin, and that it will continue to develop. Earlier this year, Putin also signed a new law legalizing Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining within the country.

 The document would see Russia create a bitcoin reserve similar to its traditional currency reserves. 

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Wabisabi Deanonymization Vulnerability “Disclosed”

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GingerWallet, the fork of WasabiWallet maintained by former zkSNACKs employees after the shut down of the Wasabi coinjoin coordinator, has received a vulnerability report from developer drkgry. This vulnerability would allow the total deanonymization of users inputs and outputs in a coinjoin round, giving a malicious coordinator the ability to completely undo any privacy gains from coinjoining by performing an active attack.

Wasabi 2.0 was a complete re-design of how Wasabi coordinated coinjoins, moving from the Zerolink framework utilizing fixed denomination mix amounts, to the Wabisabi protocol allowing dynamic multi-denomination amounts. This process involved switching from homogenous blinded tokens to register outputs to claim your coins back, to a dynamic credentials system called Keyed Verification Anonymous Credentials (KVACs). This would allow users to register blinded amounts that prevented theft of other users’ coins without revealing to the server plain-text amounts that could be correlated and prevent linking ownership of separate inputs.

When users begin participating in a round, they poll the coordinator server for information regarding the round. This returns a value in the RoundCreated parameters, called maxAmountCredentialValue. This is the highest value credential the server will issue. Each credential issuance is identifiable based on the value set here.

To save bandwidth, multiple proposed methods for clients to cross-verify this information were never implemented. This allows a malicious coordinator to give each user when they begin registering their inputs a unique maxAmountCredentialValue. In subsequent messages to the coordinator, including output registration, the coordinator could identify which user it was communicating with based on this value.

By “tagging” each user with a unique identifier in this way, a malicious coordinator can see which outputs are owned by which users, negating all privacy benefits they could have gained from coinjoining.

To my knowledge drkgry discovered this independently and disclosed it in good faith, but the members of the team who were present at zkSNACKs during the design phase of Wabisabi were absolutely aware of this issue.

“The second purpose of the round hash is to protect the clients from tagging attacks by the server, the credential issuer parameters must be identical for all credentials and other round metadata should be the same for all clients (e.g. to ensure that the server isn’t trying to influence clients to create some detectable bias in registrations).”

It was brought up in 2021 by Yuval Kogman, also known as nothingmuch, in 2021. Yuval was the developer to design what would become the Wabisabi protocol, and one of the designers in actually specifying the full protocol with ‪István András Seres‬.

One final note is the tagging vulnerability is not actually addressed without this suggestion from Yuval as well as full ownership proofs bound to actual UTXOs as proposed in his original pull request discussing tagging attacks. All of the data being sent to clients isn’t bound to a specific round ID, so a malicious coordinator is still capable of pulling a similar attack by giving users unique round IDs and simply copying the necessary data and re-assigning each unique round ID per-user before sending any messages. 

This is not the only outstanding vulnerability present in the current implementation of Wasabi 2.0 created by the rest of the team cutting corners during the implementation phase. 

 A major vulnerability in Wabisabi has been publicly revealed that would allow a malicious coordinator server to deanonymize users. 

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MicroBT Unveils New-Gen WhatsMiner M6XS++ Series at Bitcoin MENA 2024

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Abu Dhabi, December 9, 2024 – MicroBT, a world-leading Bitcoin ASIC manufacturer, has once again showcased its technological prowess and innovation-driven approach by introducing the latest WhatsMiner M6XS++ series at the Bitcoin MENA 2024 Conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

During the conference, Dr. Zuoxing Yang, the Founder and CEO of MicroBT, delivered a keynote address titled “Lead Great and Green Mining Forward.” In his speech, he unveiled advancements in solar power mining technology, highlighted the innovative heat utilization in hydro-cooling mining systems, and introduced the new WhatsMiner models.

The mining industry stands at a pivotal juncture, with green mining emerging as a forefront trend for the future. Dr. Yang emphasized the transformative potential of solar mining, predicting a significant reduction in electricity costs for solar power mining to approximately 3.4 cents USD per kWh by 2025. Furthermore, WhatsMiner’s groundbreaking high-temperature water outlet hydro-cooling technology is pushing the boundaries of comprehensive heat recovery. This technology enables the WhatsMiner hydro-cooling system to either minimize mining cooling needs or repurpose heat for advanced applications, such as industrial steam production, seawater desalination, and heating systems, thereby reinforcing MicroBT’s prominent position in the green mining sector.

Subsequently, Dr. Yang unveiled the latest generation of WhatsMiner products. The air-cooled M60S++ boasts a hashrate of up to 226 TH/s with a power efficiency of 15.5 J/T. The hydro-cooled M63S++ offers a hashrate of up to 478 TH/s, maintaining the same power efficiency of 15.5 J/T. The immersion-cooled M66S++, meanwhile, provides a hashrate of up to 356 TH/s, also with a power efficiency of 15.5 J/T.

Additionally, the WhatsMiner line includes the air-cooled M61S+ with a hashrate of up to 236 TH/s and a power efficiency of 17 J/T. The hydro-cooled M64S+ and M65S+ feature hashrates of up to 236 TH/s and 440 TH/s respectively, both with a power efficiency of 17 J/T. Notably, the outlet water temperature for both the M64S+ and M65S+ can reach up to 80°C.

In conclusion, Dr. Yang proudly announced MicroBT’s steadfast dedication to pioneering sustainable and eco-friendly mining practices, heralding a new era of green mining excellence and visionary leadership. With the unveiling of the latest WhatsMiner products, MicroBT stands poised and confident to decisively spearhead the green mining revolution.

 MicroBT Unveils New-Gen WhatsMiner M6XS++ Series at Bitcoin MENA 2024 

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