Crypto News
Hash Recon

This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Primary Issue” and is sponsored by HIVE Digital Technologies LTD as part of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Buy The Numbers” content series. Click here to get your Annual Bitcoin Magazine Subscription.
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We’re less than 30,000 blocks out from the halvening and the stakes couldn’t be higher. For many Bitcoin mining operators, this will make or break the bets made during this Bitcoin epoch. Did I grow too fast? Can I handle a catastrophic drop in hashprice? Will my operations get rekt by my current energy contract? Bitcoin itself remains indifferent. The halvening is inevitable, encoded by Satoshi at Bitcoin’s genesis and enforced by nodes across the world. The blocks will continue to flow and there will be blood. The big question many are asking is how to weather this looming battle. Perhaps the better question is where to be positioned on the board when the battle happens. It’s one thing to know how to build and operate an efficient fleet of bitcoin miners, but the critical success factor remains energy cost. It comes down to your position on the map. In order to find the higher ground, you must perform hash recon.
This halvening event will challenge even the most battle-hardened veterans. They will need to optimize their operations at all costs. For inexperienced operators, energy cost might seem like a variable that you can overlook. They solely focus on stacking as much hashrate as possible and tend to altogether forget about efficiency — the energy consumed per hash produced. In the long run, energy cost is the most important variable. Sure, your dollars per terahash are important, the bitcoin price is important, and so is network hashrate. It’s all important. But energy cost is the kingmaker. Afterall, the 7-year-old, legendary Antminer S9 is still profitable today with cheap enough energy.
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At the heart of miners’ considerations are two foundational elements: mining revenue and energy expenses. These two variables are used to quickly run the numbers on mining profitability. It’s important to note that this does not take into account the additional operating costs like labor and other associated expenses that go into running a mine. It remains a useful formula for keeping the lights on.
Mining operators come in many different sizes, and the easiest way to distinguish them is based on how much power they are using. Here in the U.S., the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is responsible for monitoring energy trends and categorizes consumption and power costs into Residential, Commercial, and Industrial customer power rates. We will focus on how mining operators would profit on the applicable rates across each of these three categories:
Residential: <30 kW — Encompassing home miners with 1 to 10 bitcoin mining machines. Typical homes cannot handle much more energy than this and would require additional electrical infrastructure being installed. Residential scale has the highest energy rates within the same state. Commercial: 30 kW-1 MW — Covering small to medium-sized business and bitcoin mining operators with 10 to 300 mining machines. The Commercial scale range is characterized by energy consumption that is larger than Residential but not quite Industrial scale. This range is typically up to 1 MW in size. While commercial-scale miners have better rates than residential customers within the same state, they are not big enough to successfully negotiate with power companies.Industrial: >1 MW — Operations with more than 300 mining machines. Industrial-scale operators are large enough consumers of power that they can negotiate energy costs via power purchase agreements and acquire energy at the lowest cost within the same state.
Despite these variations in scale, all three categories of mining operators are united by a common need for cost-efficient power. While some miners may be limited by geographical constraints, enterprising miners are actively exploring regions with affordable energy rates — we’ll call that jurisdictional arbitrage — while others are trying to scale into situations where they are large enough to have a seat at the table to negotiate lower rates.
War Games
Now that we have a better understanding of what different scale operations look like, let’s run the numbers. Since we don’t have the benefit of a crystal ball, we will simulate a war game using the following data points:
BTC price at $30,000.Network hashrate at 400EH/s.Bitmain Antminer S19j Pro 100TH/s at 3kW per unit.Residential scale: 10 Bitcoin Miners.Commercial scale: 100 Bitcoin Miners.Industrial scale: 1000 Bitcoin Miners.Energy rates at 2023 YTD (EIA).
Let’s apply our simple mining profitability formula (mining revenue minus power cost) to see how mining operators would handle this scenario across the U.S.
Running the numbers is quite sobering, as you immediately see just how unprofitable mining is under our outlined scenario. Only 40 states are profitable at industrial rates, 18 with commercial rates, and six states at residential rates. If you run this same simulation but enforce a halving, cutting your daily mining revenue in half, it’s suddenly a doomsday scenario where no mining operation would be profitable. Of course, Bitcoin doesn’t exist within a vacuum, and this doesn’t account for changes in the network hashrate and the bitcoin price.
The war game looks bleak for operators at residential scale. With outlined conditions, profitability at residential energy rates appears elusive and mining operations are likely running at a loss nationwide. While some may pursue this path to accumulate KYC-free sats, for many, this does not justify operating at a deficit.
Commercial rates offer a more promising outlook for operators, as lower energy costs extend profitability into many more states. Still, only a few states provide a profitable environment for small and medium-sized business miners, especially in the potentially challenging year of 2024.
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The landscape shifts further at the industrial scale, where miners wield more influence and earn a proper seat at the table. Energy producers take notice when operators’ demand approaches or exceeds 1MW, reflecting a transition from being a rounding error to a meaningful consumer. While profitability is possible in 40 states for industrial-scale miners, several states remain challenging.
The question is whether mining operators will be able to survive the battle to fight another day. Enduring an onslaught of increased competition, the halving, and an ever-unpredictable bitcoin price will not be easy. Operators will need to find efficiencies where they can. This fundamental principle holds true: Profitability can be achieved with sufficiently low hardware and energy costs. The big headline in this whole piece is that the geographic location of your operation is probably the most critical success factor in running a mining operation. For a majority of the country, this means you should not plug in bitcoin miners. However, there are still opportunities out there if you are ambitious enough to get in the trenches and do hash recon. This is where stripes are earned and the high ground is claimed.
This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Primary Issue” and is sponsored by HIVE Digital Technologies LTD as part of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Buy The Numbers” content series. Click here to get your Annual Bitcoin Magazine Subscription.
Click here to download a PDF of this article.
The halvening is nigh, and miners are fighting for territorial advantage. Time for some Hash Recon to find the energy market high ground. From “The Primary Issue”.
Crypto News
Proton Wallet — Now Available To Everyone — Is A Great Starter Self-Custodial Bitcoin Wallet

In July of last year, Swiss privacy tech company Proton (makers of Proton Mail) announced it would be launching its own bitcoin wallet — Proton Wallet.
I (along with about 100,000 other users) was given early access to the wallet to test it out and was impressed with the wallet’s user interface. I particularly liked that it allows you to link a user’s email address to their bitcoin address so that you only need to input the email address when sending bitcoin.
You can read my review of the wallet here.
Now that the wallet is available to the general public, I will recommend it to anyone I know who’s finally ready to move their bitcoin out of the hands of an exchange and into their own custody. I’ll also recommend it to anyone looking to make semi-regular bitcoin payments on-chain with a relatively small amount of bitcoin.
My reasons for recommending the wallet are as follows:
- It’s free to use (users can create up to three wallets and have up to three accounts in each wallet, which is sufficient for most users — more on that here; to create more wallets or accounts, Proton charges a fee)
- It’s easy to set up (you aren’t required to write down the 12-word seed phrase when you set up the wallet; however, it’s good practice to do so!)
- Like Proton Mail, Proton has no access to Proton Wallet user data, nor does it have access to its users’ private bitcoin keys
- Using an email address (which doesn’t have to be a Proton Mail address) to send bitcoin reduces the likelihood of inputting the wrong bitcoin address into the recipient field of a transaction
- You can select the priority speed of a transaction when sending bitcoin
- You can purchase bitcoin via Ramp or Banxa using Proton Wallet, enabling the bitcoin you purchase to be transferred directly into your custody
The only downsides to the wallet is that it doesn’t support Lightning transactions (consider the Breez SDK, Proton team!), and it doesn’t let you manage your UTXOs (loose change from bitcoin transactions, in layperson’s terms).
The latter isn’t super important, though, as, again, I’d recommend this wallet to those new to bitcoin self custody. UTXO management is more of a practice for moderate to advanced Bitcoin users.
All in all, Proton has created yet another fine product here for its 100 million users and counting, and it’s one that I’ll be recommending to Bitcoin newbies moving forward.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Proton Wallet is well-suited for anyone looking to begin their bitcoin self custody journey and/or anyone looking to make semi-frequent payments on-chain while managing a relatively small bitcoin stack.
Crypto News
El Salvador Is Still Bitcoin Country

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country, despite the fact that bitcoin is no longer legal tender in the country — at least from where I’m sitting.
Let’s start with some background on the matter.
On January 29, 2025, the Legislative Assembly in El Salvador voted to remove bitcoin’s status as legal tender.
This means that businesses in the country no longer have to accept bitcoin (not that this rule was ever strictly enforced while bitcoin was classified as legal currency, as far as I know; however, I have been told that big businesses that operate in the country (e.g., McDonalds, Walmart) may stop accepting bitcoin as payment now, which could have a detrimental effect on adoption).
This change occurred approximately one month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) struck a deal with authorities in El Salvador that stipulated the following:
- El Salvador would receive a $1.4 billion loan to support the government’s “reform agenda”
- Bitcoin-related risks be mitigated; bitcoin acceptance in the private sector must be voluntary, while the public sector’s participation in Bitcoin-related activities would be “confined” (bitcoin can no longer be used to settle government debts or pay taxes)
- Operations for the government-created Bitcoin wallet, Chivo, would be “unwound”
While the news of the Salvadoran government’s reversing its policy on bitcoin as legal tender as a result of influence from the IMF feels like a gut punch even to me, someone who isn’t Salvadoran and doesn’t live in the country, I can’t help but believe that El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.
And this feeling has only grown stronger based on what I’ve seen Bitcoiners in El Salvador posting on X.
Evelyn Lemus, co-founder and Director of Education at Bitcoin Berlin, a Bitcoin circular economy within the country, doesn’t plan to stop teaching everyday Salvadorans about Bitcoin.
Just saying it out loud.
Bitcoiners will not stop teaching about Bitcoin and making the adoption happen just because Bitcoin is not legal tender anymore. This means we need to keep pushing harder and keep doing what we do 🇸🇻
LFG🙌
Bitcoin in the hands of people 🫡 pic.twitter.com/hnMpJmL5c7— Evelyn Lemus (@Evelynlemus2906) February 2, 2025
The team at Bit Driver don’t plan to change their business model — accepting bitcoin as taxi fare — any time soon.
We’re still a Bitcoin a company.
— Bitdriver (@bitdriver_sv) February 2, 2025
While John Dennehy, founder of Mi Primer Bitcoin, expressed concern about the government of El Salvador’s rolling back its policy on bitcoin as legal currency, he and the ever-growing team at Mi Primer Bitcoin plan to double down on the work they’re doing.
Good morning from El Salvador!
We are now in DAY NINE since the government rescinded Bitcoin as legal tender, at the request of the IMF (effective after 90 days)
This means grassroots, independent Bitcoin education is now MORE important than ever
In response, at… pic.twitter.com/iTXdf0gAoL
— John Dennehy (@jdennehy_writes) February 7, 2025
The legendary Max and Stacy haven’t publicly voiced any plans to give up on El Salvador anytime soon.
And El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, run by Stacy, is still stacking bitcoin and helping to run Bitcoin education programs in the country.
🇸🇻EL SALVADOR STACKS ANOTHER 1 BTC TO STRATEGIC RESERVE
El Salvador is still stacking.
Every day.
➡️Total SBR Holdings: 6,071.18 BTC
➡️Total Added Today: +1 BTC
➡️Total Added Past 7 Days: +22 BTC
➡️Total Added Past 30 Days: +60 BTC… pic.twitter.com/y4kv2693BX— The Bitcoin Office (@bitcoinofficesv) February 7, 2025
The lesson here is that while the law around Bitcoin may have changed in El Salvador, the Bitcoiners on the ground in the country have hardly flinched.
Because we are Bitcoin, what matters most is that everyday Salvadorans and everyone else involved in the Bitcoin movement in El Salvador continues to push forward with the Bitcoin mission.
The IMF may have landed a blow, but Bitcoiners in El Salvador remain steadfast in their efforts to foster broader Bitcoin adoption.
El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Bitcoin may no longer be legal tender in El Salvador, but Bitcoiners in the country haven’t given up on the mission.
Crypto News
Introducing the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

Wouldn’t it be great if we had one all-encompassing metric to guide our Bitcoin investing decisions? That’s precisely what has been created, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator. Recently added to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, this indicator aims to consolidate multiple metrics into a single framework, making Bitcoin analysis and investment decision-making more streamlined.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The Official Bitcoin EVERYTHING Indicator
Why We Need a Comprehensive Indicator
Investors and analysts typically rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin’s price movements. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.
The Core Components of the Bitcoin Everything Indicator
Bitcoin’s price action is deeply influenced by global liquidity cycles, making macroeconomic conditions a fundamental pillar of this indicator. The correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, especially in terms of Global M2 money supply, is clear. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin typically appreciates.
Fundamental factors like Bitcoin’s halving cycles and miner strength play an essential role in its valuation. While halvings decrease new Bitcoin supply, their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.
On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. The MVRV Z-Score, for example, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins). This metric identifies accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.
The Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is a technical metric that assesses Bitcoin’s overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.
Network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin’s strength. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator measures the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.
How the Bitcoin Everything Indicator Works
By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.
Historical Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold Strategy
One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio’s performance with lower drawdowns.
For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin’s history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin Everything Indicator simplifies investing by merging the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin’s price action into a single metric. It has historically outperformed buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
A Single Metric to Rule Them All – The Bitcoin Everything Indicator combines multiple key metrics into one comprehensive tool for better investment decisions.
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