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Half Way Through The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle

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Bitcoin has historically followed a familiar four-year cycle. Now, two years into the current cycle, investors are closely watching patterns and market indicators for insights into what the next two years may hold. This article dives into the anatomy of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, past market behavior, and future possibilities.

The 4 Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is partly influenced by the scheduled halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive by 50% every four years. This halving decreases the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, often creating supply-demand pressures that can push prices higher.

This can be clearly visualized by the Stock-to-Flow Model, which compares the existing BTC in circulation to its inflationary rate, and models a ‘fair-value’ based on comparable hard assets such as Gold and Silver.

Figure 1: Bitcoin halving impact visualized through the Stock-to-Flow Model.

Currently, we’re midway through this cycle, meaning we are potentially entering a period of exponential gains as the typical one year catch-up phase following the halving progresses.

A Look Back at 2022

Two years ago, Bitcoin faced a severe crash amid a series of corporate implosions. November 2022 marked the downfall of FTX, as rumors of insolvency triggered massive sell-offs. The domino effect was brutal, as other crypto institutions, such as BlockFi, 3AC, Celsius, and Voyager Digital, also went under.

Figure 2: Cryptocurrencies such as FTT, linked to FTX, collapsed nearly 100% in a few days.

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from around $20,000 to $15,000, mirroring the broader market panic and leaving investors worried about Bitcoin’s survival. However, true to form, Bitcoin rallied again, climbing back up fivefold from the 2022 lows. Investors who weathered the storm were rewarded, and this rebound supports the argument that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains intact.

Similar Sentiment

In addition to price patterns, investor sentiment also follows a predictable rhythm across each cycle. Analyzing the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), a metric showing unrealized gains and losses in the market, suggests that emotions like euphoria, fear, and capitulation repeat regularly. Bitcoin investors typically face intense feelings of fear or pessimism during each bear market, only to shift back toward optimism and euphoria as prices recover and rise. Currently, we’re once again entering the ‘Belief’ stage following our early cycle runup and subsequent consolidation.

Figure 3: NUPL indicating similar sentiment at the same stage in every cycle.

The Global Liquidity Cycle

The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2015 and 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Following these periods of economic contraction, we see fiscal expansion across central banks and governments everywhere, which leads to more favorable conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Figure 4: Global liquidity cycles aligning with BTC bull/bear markets.

Familiar Patterns

Historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to previous cycles. From its lows, Bitcoin usually takes around 24-26 months to break past previous highs. In the last cycle, it took 26 months; in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price is on a similar upward trajectory after 24 months. Bitcoin has historically peaked about 35 months after its lows. If this pattern holds, we may see significant price increases through October 2025, after which another bear market could set in.

Following the anticipated peak, history suggests Bitcoin would enter a bear phase in 2026, lasting roughly one year until the next cycle begins anew. These patterns aren’t a guarantee but provide a roadmap that Bitcoin has adhered to in previous cycles. They offer a potential framework for investors to anticipate and adapt to the market.

Figure 5: Similar timeframes for new highs, cycle peaks, and lows over the previous cycles.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has endured, largely due to its supply schedule, global liquidity, and investor psychology. As such, the four-year cycle remains a valuable tool for investors to interpret potential price movements in Bitcoin and our base case for the rest of this cycle. However, relying solely on this cycle could be shortsighted. By incorporating on-chain metrics, liquidity analysis, and real-time investor sentiment, data-driven approaches can help investors respond effectively to changing conditions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle – Half Way Done?

 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Rhythm: Mid-Cycle Insights and What Investors Should Expect 

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Why It’s Not Too Late to Invest in Bitcoin

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For years, Bitcoin skeptics have watched from the sidelines, waiting for a moment to join the ride, only to convince themselves that they’ve already missed the boat. However, the reality tells a different story. Not only is it not too late, but Bitcoin continues to prove itself as a superior investment option compared to traditional assets—whether you have $25 a week to spare or millions to allocate.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro has a free portfolio analysis tool, Dollar Cost Average (DCA) Strategies, which enables investors to measure Bitcoin’s performance against other leading assets like gold, the Dow Jones (DJI), and Apple (AAPL) stock. This powerful tool provides hard data to demonstrate how consistent, disciplined investing over time can lead to outsized returns, even with modest amounts.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Dollar Cost Average Strategies tool helps you explore different DCA parameters to see how your portfolio would have performed across different time horizons and investment levels.

What Is Bitcoin Dollar Cost Averaging?

Dollar cost averaging involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the asset’s price. This strategy eliminates emotional decision-making and smooths out the effects of market volatility. By consistently buying Bitcoin over a defined period, investors benefit from market dips while building their portfolios over time.

Outperforming Traditional Assets Across Timeframes

Let’s break down the numbers using the DCA Strategies tool, starting with the last six months to emphasize recent performance::

  • 6 Months:
    Investing $25 weekly in Bitcoin would have turned $675 into $985.56, a 46.01% return. Meanwhile: Gold increased just 5.82%. Apple (AAPL) gained 10.32%. The Dow Jones (DJI) delivered a mere 7.34%.
  • 1 Year:
    With a total investment of $1,325 in Bitcoin, your portfolio would now be worth $2,140.20, reflecting a 61.52% return. By comparison: Gold increased by 14.50%. Apple gained 22.80%. The Dow Jones grew by only 11.36%.
  • 2 Years:
    A $25 weekly investment totaling $2,650 would now be valued at $7,145.42—a 169.64% return. Meanwhile: Gold rose by 26.56%. Apple grew by 36.22%. The Dow Jones delivered 21.13%.
  • 4 Years:
    The long-term case is even stronger. A $5,250 investment would now be worth $14,877.77, representing an incredible 183.39% return. In the same period: Gold increased by 37.26%. Apple gained 54.05%. The Dow Jones grew 27.32%.

Across every timeframe, Bitcoin outpaces traditional assets, offering compelling returns even during short-term periods of six months to a year.

Why Timing the Market Doesn’t Matter

For investors hesitant about entering the market now, it’s important to understand that Bitcoin’s long-term performance speaks for itself. Historical data shows that adopting a DCA strategy minimizes the risk of market timing while amplifying returns over time. Even small, regular investments compound significantly when Bitcoin appreciates.

Moreover, Bitcoin is no longer seen as a speculative asset but as a reliable store of value in a volatile economic landscape. With institutional adoption, technological advancements, and increasing scarcity due to its fixed supply, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive.

Why You’re Still Early

The global adoption of Bitcoin is still in its infancy. Despite its impressive performance, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is small compared to traditional asset classes like gold or equities. This means there’s still significant room for growth as more individuals, institutions, and even governments recognize its utility and value.

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive track record of outperforming gold in terms of returns, its market capitalization at the time of writing stands at only 10.82% of gold’s market cap. This highlights significant growth potential; at current market prices, Bitcoin would need to increase 9.24 times to reach parity with gold, translating to a projected price of $934,541 per BTC.  

This price target is in line with recent Bitcoin forecasts, including Eric Trump’s confident projection that Bitcoin’s price will reach $1 million.

With tools like Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s DCA Strategies, anyone can explore how small, regular investments can create exponential growth over time. Whether your starting point is $25 per week or $2,500, the data proves one thing: it’s never too late to start investing in Bitcoin.

A Tool for Every Investor

The DCA Strategies tool available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro allows you to customize your investment parameters, including purchase amounts, frequencies, and start dates. This flexibility empowers investors to create tailored strategies that align with their financial goals and time horizons.

The tool also provides comparative analysis against other assets, so you can clearly see how Bitcoin outperforms over time. This isn’t just a theoretical exercise—it’s actionable insight for anyone serious about building long-term wealth.

Conclusion: The Time to Act Is Now

For those sitting on the fence, thinking they’ve missed their chance, the data is clear: Bitcoin is not only a viable investment—it’s the best-performing asset of the decade. With a DCA strategy, even the most cautious investor can start small and reap the rewards of long-term growth.

It’s time to stop watching from the sidelines. Use Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s Dollar Cost Average Strategies tool to craft your investment approach today. If history repeats itself—and there’s every reason to believe it will—Bitcoin’s future is brighter than ever.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 Think you’ve missed the Bitcoin boom? Think again. Despite its impressive past performance, Bitcoin continues to be a top-performing asset, even in recent months. With strategies like Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), you don’t need a fortune to start investing. Learn why Bitcoin outshines gold, the Dow Jones, and other traditional investments, proving it’s never too late to join the Bitcoin revolution. 

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Why and How to Backup Your Bitcoin

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If you’ve bought bitcoin, chances are that you want to self-custody. Without self-custody, you don’t really have bitcoin, so why wouldn’t you? Using a hardware device to set up an offline bitcoin wallet is generally recommended. But backing up your wallet is actually much more important than having a hardware wallet. Yet, bitcoin backups are often ignored as an afterthought.

We’ll now be looking into why backing up your bitcoin wallet is crucial, but more importantly how to properly do it with the right products to secure your bitcoin holdings for multiple generations without trusted third parties.

Backup First

If you don’t self-custody and rely on a trusted third party like an exchange, custodian or broker, you may have good reasons for this, but perhaps you would be better off thinking about holding your own keys. As the adage goes, not your keys, not your…

Now of course, if you only have $10 or $50 worth of bitcoin in self-custody, backing up your wallet may not be relevant at this time. But if, for example, you hold a month’s worth of salary, a year’s worth of savings or even more than 5% of your net worth, then a backup may be absolutely essential to secure your bitcoin holdings.

You should backup your bitcoin because electronics and hardware devices fail. That’s not specific to bitcoin or to openly criticize hardware wallet manufacturers. Rather, hardware wallets are similar to other general consumer electronics such as computers and USB keys, in that they break over time due to life hazards.

Having multiple keys within a multisig wallet may help reduce this risk of hardware failure, but is it enough for you to feel comfortable for the next 30 years? If not, read on. Paper backups are generally included when you buy a hardware wallet, but well, they’re paper. Paper is at risk of loss, shredding, misplacement, ink may fade, etc… Using paper for your backup is not a good idea. You should not store highly sensitive and perhaps incredibly valuable data onto paper for many years.

Medium of Storage

Over the years, and since Cryptosteel announced the world’s first metal backup back in 2013, we have seen many different formats of bitcoin metal backups by multiple different vendors. Which one is the preferred today? Is there any better format between cassettes, tiles, plates, punch cards and others?

First things first, make sure that your backup is built with high grade stainless steel, which is highly durable. Titanium options may also be a good alternative. Any other medium of storage used by existing manufacturers or recommended by free DIY options may be more fragile and prone to complete data loss in case of fire or other corrosive hazards (such as Aluminium).

Formats also exist in various options, such as flat cassettes with moving tiles, punching metal cards, ring tiles mounted onto a core, punchable tubes, punchable rings threaded onto a core, and more. So, which one is the best and why?

We need to establish the needs of someone who is backing their bitcoin seed phrase. The most important aspect is that it should be simple. Some would argue that’s not the priority but it really is. If it is difficult or inconvenient to use, then few people will do it right, while many others may be unable to complete a successful backup. Of course, a good bitcoin backup must be durable, recoverable, affordable and private, but that should almost be basic requirements for any product.

Anatomy of a Good Backup

We cannot start this discussion without sharing Lopp’s comprehensive technical overview of what makes a good seed phrase backup, based on his past research testing various models of metal bitcoin backups. The following analysis is more akin to an opinionated view of metal bitcoin backups as of 2024 focused on usability, security and durability.

A simple way to backup your bitcoin should require no extra tooling. That’s the best way to keep things simple for anyone looking to durably backup their bitcoin holdings. Requiring no tools is also safer with no risk of harm due to poor usage of tools. It’s also more discrete and enjoyable as there should be no noise from the process of making a backup. A larger number of people are able to backup their holdings if it does not require specialized equipment, such as sharp items, hammers, anvils or punches.

Obviously, your backup must be durable. That’s the whole point. We’ve established that stainless steel is the best alloy to rely on. But about the format? Over the years, we’ve seen different shapes of backups. What matters is that the format be resistant to life hazards, including fire, flood, tons of weight press and extreme changes in any of these conditions. We’re concerned about concrete life risks such as floods, hurricanes, as well as house and apartment fires, which can cause high temperatures but also buildings to crumble.

Options for backup formats usually fall within 6 categories to record data: sliding, stamping, engraving, etching, punching and stacking.

Sliding

Introduced in 2013 by Cryptosteel, the sliding backup design is a rail-based device in which you slide tiles, such as Cassette by Cryptosteel, Simbit or Billfodl. They are quite easy to set up, not requiring specialized tooling and are resistant to most risks such as corrosion from acid, heat from fire, and water floods. But this design may pose some risks of partial or even complete data loss if the medium gets bent or twisted by a very heavy weight press.

Vendor Reviews: Cryptosteel Cassette, Simbit, Ellipal Mnemonic Metal, Bunkeroid, HODL Wallet (discontinued), Billfodl (discontinued), Steeldisk (discontinued)

Engraving

Similar to stamping, engraving does not necessarily require stamps, but can be done with various sharp tools to permanently mark the metal, such as dremel, small chisels, and gravers. Of course, engraving can be done on many different formats of metal backups, but require even more specialized tools and security measures to avoid injuries than with stamping.

Vendor Reviews: SteelWallet (DIY), Steelki, CryptoVault (discontinued), Crypto Key Stack (discontinued)

Etching

Etching is used to mark metal backups with the corrosive action of an acid or electrochemical process. This is probably the least popular way to mark metal backups but is usually available as an option with vendors that rely on engraving for imprinting a backup in metal. It relies on highly specialized tools and is hazardous due to the dangerous chemical products required.

Vendor Reviews: Steelki, Black Seed Ink, Cryptoetch (discontinued), SteelWallet (DIY), CryptoVault (discontinued), Crypto Key Stack (discontinued)

Stamping

Usually the most widespread technique in both commercial and DIY products, stamping is a way to mark metal backups of different formats, from plates to hexagonal tubular shapes, fender washers and rings. Stamping requires medium to advanced technical skills, as it requires using tools, such as hammers, stamps and optional jig and guiding rails to ensure stamping is done safely with the correct alignment of characters. Wearing protective gears for eyes and fingers is usually recommended for safety.

Vendor Reviews: Coldbit, DIY BulletProof Bitcoin, Crypto Keys (discontinued), Hodlinox (discontinued), SAFU Ninja (DIY), Safe Seed, Seedor, Cryptotag

Punching

Similar to stamping, punching requires medium to advanced technical skills as special tools such as punches and hammers are used to mark metal permanently. It’s also quite popular as stamping, and requires only one single shape to punch, instead of multiple unique stamps. It’s usually done on metal plates with grids as well as hexagonal tubular shapes. It can be quite difficult to mark metal punching without making errors but also reading data may prove inconvenient for recovery. Wearing protective gears for eyes and fingers is usually recommended for safety.

Vendor Reviews: Blockplate, Seedplate, Smallseed, Attenuo (discontinued), Steelwallet, Coldkeys S, Bitplate Domino

Stacking

One of the least widespread commercial products, and perhaps most underappreciated formats is to stack tiles and other ring parts, such as fender washers. This design is compatible with beginners having low levels of technical skills, and DIY enthusiasts. The order and completeness of seed phrases is absolutely crucial for recovery, so this design must have reliable cotter-pins acting as closing and retention clips, or should include numbering for each word. Other than that, assembling these products does not require any tools, except for DIY options using the “stacking” design combined with “stamping”, for instance.

Vendor Reviews: Cryptosteel Capsule, Cryptosteel Seed12, SAFU Ninja DIY

Additional Considerations

Affordability

How much does a backup cost? The price at which a bitcoin backup product is available is an important criteria for many consumers. This is also true for hardware wallet manufacturers who may consider bundling their hardware devices with backup products. A price point under $50 is considered affordable. Anything over 100$ is considered premium, while the most common pricing is within the $50-100 range usually.

Erasability

Can errors be made and corrected without rendering the backup obsolete? Very few backup formats are editable and erasable. This can be useful for error correction, backup reuse with new seed phrases and also for educational content. It’s also a great benefit to discard a seed phrase backup privately, without leaking any sensitive information. Usually, the “stacking” model is the only compatible format to erase a backup.

Tamper-Evidence

Is it obvious if someone saw or made a copy of a backup? Revealing that a backup has been viewed by a third party is an important feature for anyone worried about the “evil maid attack”. Usually, tamper-evident seals are DIY and do not come built into the backup design. Very few backups have such seals integrated as part of the core product, though it is a useful privacy and security add-on.

Compactness

How small is a backup in size to hide it easily? The dimensions of a backup matter quite a lot to be able to hide it in some safe place, but also from a durability standpoint. A small and compact backup is less likely to bend to tons of weight pressure.

Seed12 as a Recommended Backup

Based on the previous discussion, our recommended bitcoin self-custody backup as of December 2024 is the Seed12 by Cryptosteel. Assemble your backup by threading character tiles onto the core, encasing them in an optional protective capsule and tamper-proof seal.

  • Affordable: For $30, the Seed12 Core and $59 the Seed12 Security Kit are priced quite competitively to other commercial backups. Of course, DIY options remain more affordable for constrained budgets.
  • Durable: Made from high grade stainless steel, Seed12 is highly resistant to impact, flood and fire temperatures.
  • Compact: Packaged in a matchbox-sized case.
  • No tools: This backup system requires no tools, such as hammers or sharp punches, making it easy and safe to set up.
  • Erasable: As one of the smallest backup kits ever designed, it is also erasable and reusable, built with a modular tile system for easy error correction.
  • Flexible: Consumers can purchase additional parts and only pay for what they use, such as extra tiles, capsules or tamper-proof seals.

The Right Conditions to Backup

Now that we’ve covered most aspects and considerations of what makes a good bitcoin backup, let’s briefly cover how and where to actually set it up. When setting up your bitcoin backup, ensure the following:

  • Secure Environment: Choose a private, distraction-free space to set up your backup without risk of being overheard or observed.
  • Backup Location: Store in a secure, fireproof, and waterproof location, such as a home safe or a safety deposit box for additional security.
  • Redundancy: Create multiple backups and store them in geographically separated locations.
  • Privacy Measures: Use tamper-evident seals or concealment techniques to detect or prevent unauthorized access.
  • Documentation: Clearly label backups and write a documented plan to help yourself and your trusted ones to recover your bitcoin with your backups.
  • Regular Checks: Periodically verify the backup’s condition and accessibility while ensuring it remains private and simple to use to recover your bitcoin.

If you have bitcoin in self-custody, you must have a good backup. Backing up your bitcoin is not just a precaution—it’s a necessity for securing your holdings over the long term. With the right materials, such as stainless steel or titanium, and careful attention to format, usability, and durability, you can ensure your backup withstands life’s challenges. Whether you opt for sliding, stamping, punching, or stacking designs, prioritize simplicity and reliability. By following proper setup conditions and choosing high-quality products built to last, you can protect your bitcoin for generations without relying on third parties.

This is a guest post by Thibaud. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

 A look at bitcoin backups, why they are important, and how to manage them. 

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Ray Dalio Prefers Bitcoin Over Bonds

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Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said he prefers investing in “hard money” like bitcoin and gold over debt assets, given rising global indebtedness.

In a speech at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week conference, the veteran investor referred to “unprecedented levels” of debt seen in all major countries, including the United States and China, stressing that current levels are unsustainable.

“It is impossible for these countries to be able to not have a debt crisis in the years ahead that will lead to a great decline of [money] value,” Dalio said.

He continued that he wants to “steer away from debt assets like bonds and debt, and have some hard money like gold and bitcoin.” Dalio sees bitcoin and gold as stable hedges against economic uncertainty.

The billionaire investor was not always so keen on bitcoin. Previously, Dalio believed crypto would not succeed as hoped. But he has emerged as a major bitcoin advocate in recent years.

In 2022, Dalio said allocating up to 2% of a portfolio to bitcoin, in addition to gold, is reasonable to hedge against inflation. 

Dalio’s take further legitimizes bitcoin as a hedge against unsound monetary policies. As nations continue debasing fiat currencies, bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a safe haven.

 Ray Dalio says he prefers bitcoin and gold over bonds amid rising global debt levels, signaling growing institutional endorsement of bitcoin as a safe haven asset. 

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