Crypto News

Gimme Shelter: Withdrawing From The Music Industry

Published

1 year ago

November 1, 2023

This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Withdrawal Issue”. Click here to subscribe now.

A PDF pamphlet of this article is available for download.

Music Industry Misfortune

The music industry is notorious for preying on the artists on which its existence depends. In the early days of recorded music, this exploitation started with unfavorable contracts, depriving musicians of the fruits of their labor while record labels made all the money. The mistreatment has since evolved into the Live Nation Entertainment monopoly, where the company has a nearly exclusive hold on the ticket market (thanks, Ticketmaster!) and an equally tight grasp on the event side, where the company owned at least 259 venues worldwide as of 2021, and where many of their ticketed concerts are held.

Ticketmaster has long faced the ire of musicians and die-hard fans fed up with surreptitious order processing fees. In 1994, Pearl Jam made a complaint to the Justice Department accusing the company of being a monopoly. No action was made at that time, but Ticketmaster faced and lost a similar lawsuit in 2003. The company was ordered to pay $400 million in credits to 50 million ticket buyers. This author was able to cash in about $20 for a single concert, which nearly canceled out the service fees, but didn’t even begin to cover the cost of the ticket.

In more recent news, Swifties sued Ticketmaster and Live Nation when presale tickets to Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” sold out instantly. They were listed for thousands of dollars on resale within minutes on the same site the original tickets were sold, prompting a Senate Judiciary hearing in January 2023. Singer and songwriter, Clyde Lawrence, explained how Live Nation Entertainment serves three roles: promoter, venue, and ticketing company. He shared, “Due to Live Nation’s control across the industry, we have practically no say or leverage in discussing these line items, nor are we afforded much transparency surrounding them”. From a ticket with a face value of $42, an artist might end up with only $6 of that sale.

Ultimately, musicians’ challenges with profitably monetizing their work has been a problem since greedy bigwigs realized they could make a buck on the backs of creatives who just wanted to hone their craft and make a respectable living.

In order to bring in money, musicians had to fit the arbitrary mold that record labels made using their industry’s influence and power to shape culture by picking what type of music would get the most airtime and send the media magnates’ message of choice. Read: “The Secret Meeting that Changed Rap Music and Destroyed a Generation”.

While artists often just want to write music and spread their tunes to as many people as possible, records, 8-tracks, cassettes, and CDs are only the tip of the iceberg of financial success. Over time, artists have had to rely more and more on touring to promote an album, sell merchandise, and make money through ticket sales. As mentioned above, ticket sales are no longer a viable source of revenue (though perhaps they never were), and record label contracts haven’t ever been a favorable agreement.

The earlier problems of the music industry are still prevalent, though less so from legacy record labels and more so from the centralization of the live music industry, exacerbated with the digitization of music through streaming platforms. In the case of Spotify, what artists receive per stream is between $0.003 to $0.005. On average, TIDAL pays out around $0.013 per stream. Music streaming platforms are not the only platforms at fault. According to Google Play Music data, music content on YouTube gets $0.00676 per stream on average.

These are not exactly eye-popping numbers and make it difficult for all but the most famous artists to earn a living. A musician who is able to get one million streams makes $5,000 from Spotify, assuming they meet the requirements for the higher-end payscale. Barely enough for a month’s rent and food. And that doesn’t consider the bands who split their profits among multiple members, writers, and producers.

But thanks to the advent of an internet-native currency, there is a brand new opportunity to completely reinvent the structure of the music industry, pairing bitcoin with digitized music.

Value-4-Value

The value-for-value model is a game-changer to monetizing creative works in a world of infinite content. It provides the viewer with the completely voluntary ability to give any amount of money directly to a content creator. With the use of the Lightning Network, micropayments of bitcoin can be sent immediately and effortlessly.

This model is different from the subscription-based structure where users have to put in a credit card and be charged on a monthly or annual basis in order to access the entire body of work across a certain publication, platform, or creator.

The story is likely familiar. You see a captivating headline for an article you’re interested in reading, but when you click the link, you need to sign up and pay for a monthly subscription in order to get past the first paragraph. Chances are you left the page without reading, but what if you could’ve accessed it with a $0.10 instantaneous payment just by scanning a QR code?

Micropayments are simply impossible with the legacy financial system. PayPal takes a fixed $0.49 fee plus a 3.49% fee of the total transaction, so it’s preposterous to attempt a $0.10 donation to creators in that way. Ignoring credit card minimums, processing fees are usually around 3%, so if you tried tipping $0.10, the artist would only be left with $0.07. The Lightning Network creates the potential for bitcoin micropayments, but this description isn’t quite aligned with the value-for-value model.

In essence, a value-for-value pay structure puts the onus of support on the person engaging with the content. The person reading, listening, watching, or using the content can make a choice to pay as much or as little as they deem appropriate. Most users won’t pay anything. Some will pay a little and some will pay a lot. This type of monetization structure has been taking off with podcasts on podcasting 2.0 apps like Fountain, which allows podcasters to receive payment directly from users who choose to send them small amounts of bitcoin on a minute-by-minute basis from their own wallet. Similarly, the Nostr (“notes and other stuff transmitted by relays”) social media protocol allows users to connect a Lightning wallet and receive “zaps” for popular posts.

Now, this idea is starting to make waves in the music streaming world as well. Wavlake was created in order to develop and push forward the standards already being used in the podcasting 2.0 model. Sam Means and Michael Rhee designed Wavlake to give musicians an opportunity to directly monetize their work in a value-for-value economy. Musicians can upload music to the platform and instantly receive direct bitcoin payments from listeners and fans. Listeners can “boost” songs by setting a rate and sending bitcoin to artists as they listen and enjoy certain sections of music that resonate with them.

According to its founders, the idea of Wavlake is to “rethink how the music business works globally and start fresh”. Their main goal is to fix the music business to put artists in charge. They think that artists should be the ones that make the money off their music and not have to do extra things just to survive.

Joe Martin is one musician that sees the value in this new type of streaming service that directly supports musicians. “These platforms are building the tools for content creators to take back control of their work in a new and unique way”, he said.

Bitcoin opens the door for micropayments, which in turn, creates new circumstances for people to send value over the internet, removing the friction of geographical borders with different local currencies. Or as Martin put it, “The coolest thing about this, apart from the no-minimum amount, is that anyone around the world with an internet connected device could have sent me value, instantly, at no cost and with final settlement”.

Musicians finally have the tools to fully own the fruits of their labor. Bitcoin equips those who use it with full sovereignty over their finances and artists are no exception. Thanks to bitcoin micropayments over the Lightning Network and a new vision for supporting creators, a direct relationship between artists, their work, and their fans is finally available to us.

Not only can fans send value directly to their favorite artists, but they can also include comments with their donations, and other fans can participate by sending value and replies to commenters. Through this system, new types of borderless communities can form around the arts.

We haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of the full range of uses and benefits of the value-for-value model in general, let alone in the music industry. When artists and fans have a direct relationship with one another, there are countless and currently unimaginable trajectories of mutual benefit for both creators and listeners. With the breakthrough of a borderless, internet-native digital currency that runs on communication networks, the possibilities are as endless as the human imagination’s desire to be heard and understood. Musicians and music lovers everywhere can finally break free from the clutches of the exploitative industry and build a new, alternative system that truly serves creators and their fans.

This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Withdrawal Issue”. Click here to subscribe now.

A PDF pamphlet of this article is available for download.

From “The Withdrawal Issue”, Craig Deutsch offers Bitcoin and the value-for-value creator model as a means of withdrawing from a toxic music industry.

Crypto News

David Bailey Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Price During Trump Presidency

Published

5 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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In an in-depth discussion on the Hell Money Podcast, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., shared insights into Bitcoin’s transformative potential, its geopolitical implications, and its role as a cornerstone of a new global economic framework.

“I see this happening so much faster than anyone can appreciate. Within 10 years, Bitcoin will become the reserve asset of the world.”

00:00 Intro
07:15 Bitcoin soft forks
11:00 Bitcoin vs. Crypto in US policy
19:20 How much political power does Bitcoin have?
23:50 Bitcoiners are politically homeless
26:20 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
29:00 Bitcoin development and ossification
32:00 Separation of money and state
33:40 Raise your time preference
35:20 SBR as a way out of USD global reserve status
41:00 Will they eventually fight us?
43:00 Incentives as a political movement
46:30 What happens next?
49:15 Bitcoin Vegas & Inscribing Vegas 2025

The Political and Economic Power of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has evolved into a significant political and financial instrument. Its decentralized nature, immutable ledger, and finite supply make it an attractive alternative to traditional fiat currencies, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Bailey emphasizes that Bitcoin is no longer merely a speculative asset but has become a political force capable of influencing policy and elections.

“Within the next four years, Bitcoin will be the most widely held asset in the world. This isn’t a special one-off moment—it’s the changing of the guard of the world order.”

As Bitcoin gains adoption among individual investors, corporations, and governments, its ability to sway decisions in both the public and private sectors continues to grow. This makes Bitcoin a strategic tool for economic stability and a hedge against systemic risks such as inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability. Understanding this evolution is crucial for investors looking to align their strategies with Bitcoin’s increasing influence in global finance.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Game-Changer for Economies

Bailey highlights the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) as a key driver in Bitcoin’s path to becoming a global reserve asset. If a major economy, such as the United States, were to adopt an SBR, it could trigger a domino effect, with other nations racing to establish their own reserves. This global competition could significantly accelerate Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a fundamental part of national and international financial strategies.

“If America gets an SBR, China gets an SBR. If America and China have an SBR, within 12 months every country on the planet will have an SBR. The game theory effects of us kicking this off, in my opinion, are like the biggest catalyst possible for hyperbitcoinization.”

An SBR offers governments the ability to hedge against inflation, protect their economies from devaluation, and diversify their reserves. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is easily transferable, highly divisible, and operates transparently on a decentralized network. For investors, national adoption of Bitcoin reserves signals long-term stability and growth potential, reinforcing the case for allocating a portion of portfolios to Bitcoin and related assets.

Orange-Pilling Trump: A Strategic Advocacy Moment

One of the most intriguing aspects of David Bailey’s efforts in advancing Bitcoin’s adoption was his strategic engagement with former President Donald Trump. Bailey discussed how Bitcoin advocates pitched Bitcoin to Trump as more than just a digital currency, emphasizing its economic and political advantages. By framing Bitcoin as a tool for strengthening American competitiveness and financial independence, Bailey and his team successfully captured Trump’s interest.

“We are within a couple of years of being the most powerful political faction in the United States. And not just the United States—there are bitcoiners embedded in power structures across the planet.”

Bailey’s team leveraged Bitcoin mining as a key entry point in their discussions, highlighting the economic benefits of Bitcoin mining operations in the United States, such as job creation and energy innovation. This approach aligned Bitcoin with Trump’s “America First” policies, presenting it as a way to bolster the nation’s energy independence and economic strength. These discussions laid the groundwork for a broader understanding of Bitcoin’s strategic value at the highest levels of government.

Governance and Innovation in Bitcoin

While Bitcoin’s decentralized nature is its greatest strength, it also presents challenges in governance and technological adaptability. Bailey underscores the importance of continuous innovation, particularly through mechanisms like soft forks, to ensure that Bitcoin remains scalable, secure, and competitive. Without these updates, the risk of ossification—where the network becomes resistant to necessary changes—could hinder Bitcoin’s evolution.

“Bitcoin gives governments a really elegant way out of the money-printing trap. They can print money, buy Bitcoin, and as the price of Bitcoin goes up, they’re still solvent. Later, they can peg their currency to Bitcoin.”

The Bitcoin community must navigate these governance complexities with a focus on collaboration and forward-looking solutions.

Hyperbitcoinization and the $1 Million Price Target

Bailey predicts that Bitcoin could reach a value of $1 million per coin within the next four years, driven by its growing adoption and the systemic challenges faced by traditional financial systems. This projection signifies more than just a price milestone—it represents a fundamental shift in the global economic order. Hyperbitcoinization, as Bailey describes it, involves Bitcoin becoming the default reserve currency, complementing or even replacing traditional fiat currencies.

“When we get to a million bucks, which I think can happen over the next four years—in my personal opinion, I think it’s possible—the Federal Reserve is, like, going to be completely impotent.”

This transition would have profound implications. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature would democratize access to financial systems, reduce reliance on central authorities, and promote greater economic inclusion. For investors, the journey toward hyperbitcoinization offers unparalleled opportunities as Bitcoin’s dual role as a store of value and medium of exchange becomes increasingly evident.

Interview Key Takeaways

Political Leverage: Bitcoin’s influence on policymaking and elections underscores its role as a hedge against political and economic risks.
National Adoption Trends: The adoption of SBRs by major economies could catalyze global Bitcoin adoption, creating a favorable environment for long-term investment.
Technological Resilience: Continuous innovation, including scalability solutions like the Lightning Network, is essential for sustaining Bitcoin’s growth and usability.
Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin’s uncorrelated performance relative to traditional assets makes it an attractive addition to diversified investment strategies.
Economic Stability: In an era of rising inflation and monetary instability, Bitcoin provides a transparent, secure, and decentralized alternative to fiat currencies.

The Future of Bitcoin in the Global Economy

David Bailey’s insights provide a compelling vision of Bitcoin’s transformative potential, offering investors a clear opportunity to align their strategies with a rapidly evolving financial landscape. By understanding and leveraging Bitcoin’s role in fostering economic resilience and innovation, investors can position themselves to benefit from its adoption as a global reserve asset and a tool for long-term portfolio growth. As the world confronts challenges such as inflation, currency instability, and geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin emerges as a beacon of financial stability and innovation. For investors, the implications of Bitcoin’s growth extend far beyond speculative returns—it represents a strategic opportunity to participate in the evolution of the global financial system.

“It’s like, well, once that happens, then it’s not $1 million or $10 million. It’s like, it is the reserve asset of the world.”

In the coming decade, Bitcoin’s role as a stabilizing force and driver of innovation will become increasingly evident. Its seamless integration into national and corporate strategies, combined with its adaptability, positions Bitcoin as a cornerstone of future financial systems. Bailey’s vision challenges investors to consider the profound implications of a decentralized monetary system that prioritizes transparency, inclusion, and resilience.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

David Bailey Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Price During Trump Presidency David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., shares bold predictions for Bitcoin’s future, including its potential to reach $1 million during the Trump presidency. This article delves into the political, economic, and technological forces shaping Bitcoin’s role as a global reserve asset and highlights key strategies for investors to align with its transformative potential.

Crypto News

Trump Did Not Free Ross On Day One Because Of Course He Didn’t

Published

8 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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I’m not here to say “I told you so.”

In my Take from October 4, I did write that Donald Trump does not give a damn about Bitcoin, and in my Take from November 5 I wrote he just wants in on the crypto scam. But I didn’t mention Ross Ulbricht in either of these, largely because even I expected Trump to at least follow through on his promise to free Ross. It’s an easy promise to keep, without any real downside for Trump; after more than ten years in prison Ulbricht deserves to be free.

I didn’t really expect Trump to free Ross on day one of his presidency, however. Inauguration day is quite a busy day for a new president, I’m sure.

Having said that, it is what Trump himself said he would do. Of course Trump also said that he would have resolved the war in Ukraine by now — apparently they’re still fighting.

Trump is a bullshitter. He will just say whatever he wants or whatever people want to hear, with no regard for the truth. He may in fact well have the most recorded lies out of any human being in history: Fact checkers from The Washington Post have for example counted over 30,000 false or misleading claims during his first term as president alone.

Still, it is also true that Trump had a busy day yesterday. He signed 26 executive orders (a record amount for a first day president), and pardoned over 1500 of his supporters; those who stormed the US Capitol Building on January 6th four years ago. Yes, that means the QAnon Shaman walks free before Ross Ulbricht (H/T Trey Walsh)… but let’s just hope that Elon Musk is proven right in the next few days, and Ross will be freed too.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Trump Did Not Free Ross On Day One Because Of Course He Didn’t Donald Trump broke his campaign promise to free Ross Ulbricht on day one of his presidency… let’s hope he follows through in the next couple of days after all.

Crypto News

Advanced Mathematical Projections for the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Peak

Published

8 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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The current Bitcoin bull market presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking precise, data-driven forecasts regarding the timing and magnitude of the next price peak. In a rigorous analysis presented by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, lead analyst Matt Crosby applies a sophisticated blend of historical data, moving average analysis, and statistical modeling to predict the forthcoming Bitcoin bull cycle peak.

Crosby’s findings project October 19, 2025, as a pivotal date, with Bitcoin reaching a median price of $200,000 and the potential for peaks extending to $230,000 when accounting for statistical outliers.

Access the Comprehensive Analysis

For an in-depth understanding of the mathematical methodologies and the complete analysis, refer to the full video presentation available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s platform.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: An Analytical Benchmark

Central to Crosby’s predictive framework is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, renowned for its precision in identifying Bitcoin’s cyclical price peaks within narrow temporal margins during past bull markets. The indicator functions by employing two critical moving averages:

111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): Reflecting shorter-term price dynamics.
350-Day Moving Average (350DMA) multiplied by two: Offering a broader historical perspective.

The nomenclature “Pi” arises from the ratio of these averages, approximating 3.142. Historically, the intersection of these moving averages has corresponded with Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks:

2017: The indicator predicted the peak with a one-day margin of error.
2021: Accurately identified the exact peak date.

Methodological Precision: From Data to Predictions

Crosby extends his analysis through Monte Carlo simulations, a robust statistical technique that models numerous potential trajectories for Bitcoin’s price evolution. Key facets of this approach include:

Quantifying median daily returns and associated volatility over the preceding 791 days.
Running more than 1,000 simulations to map a spectrum of plausible price paths.
Deriving a median price peak of $200,000, with an average of $230,000 when incorporating extreme data points.

These simulations align with historical patterns, suggesting that the next Bitcoin bull cycle peak will likely occur on October 19, 2025.

Examining Diminishing Returns

To estimate the price range at the projected peak, Crosby evaluates the historical phenomenon of diminishing returns, where each successive cycle exhibits proportionally smaller price increases relative to its moving averages:

2013: Bitcoin’s price exceeded its moving averages by 440%.
2017: This figure decreased to 299%.
2021: The peak was 32% above the moving averages.

Extrapolating this trend and incorporating Monte Carlo simulations yields the following projections:

Median Price Peak: $200,000.
Average Price Peak: $230,000, accounting for statistical variability.

Implications for Investors

Crosby underscores the inherent uncertainties in any predictive model, emphasizing the importance of adapting to evolving market dynamics. Factors such as institutional adoption, macroeconomic trends, and unforeseen events could significantly influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Nonetheless, this analysis provides a rigorous, data-driven framework to inform investment strategies during the current bull cycle.

Key Insights

Projected Peak Date: October 19, 2025.
Forecasted Price Range: A median of $200,000, with potential peaks averaging $230,000.
Analytical Tools: Pi Cycle Top Indicator and Monte Carlo Simulations, powered by Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

For ongoing access to live data, advanced analytics, and exclusive content, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

Advanced Mathematical Projections for the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Peak Discover how advanced statistical methods and historical data, including the renowned Pi Cycle Top Indicator and Monte Carlo simulations, are used to project Bitcoin’s next bull cycle peak, with insights into potential price ranges and timing for savvy investors.