According to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine, an Office of California Assemblymember, Republican Phillip Chen, has appointed Proof of Workforce, a Santa Monica-based non-profit helping workers, unions, pensions, and municipalities with education-based Bitcoin adoption, to work on a variety of Bitcoin related initiatives and help with drafting an official bill for an upcoming legislative session.

“As to where and how Bitcoin and digital assets get into the trajectory of California, much is undetermined,” said Chen. “What is certain is that this industry is growing in adoption everyday, with Bitcoin serving as a global network and asset, representing 2 trillion dollars in value. Therefore, it’s important we take a meaningful look into its role in our great state of California.”

Proof of Workforce, led by its founder Dom Bei, will be advising Chen’s policy team, working on education and community engagement, and researching how Bitcoin can support and rebuild California’s infrastructure and communities.

“Bitcoin’s Genesis story has deep roots in California,” commented Bei. “A huge part of that Genesis Story is an innovative network, designed to protect the time, energy, and value of everyday, working people. Bitcoin isn’t partisan, it’s uniquely Californian.”

This isn’t Proof of Workforce’s first time helping onboard governments in California to Bitcoin. Last summer, Proof of Workforce partnered with the City of Santa Monica to open an official Bitcoin office. Since opening, the office has seen “an overwhelming amount of interest”, according to the city’s Mayor Lana Negrete. Santa Monica’s City Manager has also stated that other cities have reached out to learn more about their Bitcoin endeavors.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Santa Monica City Manager says “several other cities have reached out to learn more” about their official #Bitcoin Office 👀

“The Bitcoin Office has seen significant interest from the public” 🚀pic.twitter.com/ortfFTCx1S

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 9, 2024

Mass adoption starts with initiatives like this. Bitcoin adoption within California’s government is beginning and with the United States embracing Bitcoin under President Trump, it is very likely that the adoption of this asset within the state government will continue over the coming years.

Over the years I’ve watched Dom Bei and Proof of Workforce onboard Careers in Government, firefighter unions in America, El Salvador, and Africa, workers, and more to Bitcoin. They’re doing it right by helping these organizations buy and hold their own bitcoin keys, making sure they’re all properly educated on not just bitcoin the asset but Bitcoin the network as well. One by one, Proof of Workforce is making real change that impacts people’s daily lives.

If you are not following Bei and Proof of Workforce on X, you should be. After talking with Dom personally, they are working on a lot of exciting initiatives that you’ll want to hear about — stay tuned.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

​ Bitcoin focused non-profit Proof of Workforce is working with the Office of California on legislation and Bitcoin initiatives. 

As the Bitcoin market steps into 2025, investors are keenly analyzing seasonal trends and historical data to predict what February might hold. With Bitcoin’s cyclical nature often tied to its halving events, historical insights provide a valuable roadmap for navigating future performance. By examining historical data—including Bitcoin’s average monthly returns and its post-halving February performance—we aim to provide a clear picture of what February 2025 might look like.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Seasonality

The first chart, “Bitcoin Seasonality,” highlights average monthly returns from 2010 to the latest monthly close. The data underscores Bitcoin’s best-performing months and its cyclical tendencies. February has historically shown an average return of 13.62%, ranking it as one of the stronger months for Bitcoin performance.

Notably, November stands out with the highest average return at 43.74%, followed by October at 19.46%. Conversely, September has historically been the weakest month with an average return of -1.83%. February’s solid average places it in the upper tier of Bitcoin’s seasonality, offering investors hope for positive returns in early 2025.

Historical Performance of February in Post-Halving Years

A deeper dive into Bitcoin’s historical February returns reveals fascinating insights for years that follow a halving event. Bitcoin’s halving mechanism—which occurs roughly every four years—reduces block rewards by half, creating a supply shock that has historically driven price increases. February’s performance in these post-halving years has consistently been positive:

• 2013 (Post-2012 Halving): 62.71%
• 2017 (Post-2016 Halving): 22.71%
• 2021 (Post-2020 Halving): 36.80%

The average return across these three years is an impressive 40.74%. Each of these Februarys reflects the bullish momentum that often follows halving events, driven by reduced Bitcoin supply issuance and increased market demand.

Related: We’re Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

January 2025’s Performance Sets the Stage

While February 2025 is yet to unfold, the year began with a modest 7.28% return to date in January, as shown in the “Monthly Returns Heatmap.” January’s positive performance hints at a continuation of bullish sentiment in the early months of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving patterns. If February 2025 follows the trajectory of past post-halving years, it could see returns in the range of 22% to 63%, with an average expectation around 40%.

What Drives February’s Strong Post-Halving Performance?

Several factors contribute to February’s historical strength in post-halving years:

1. Supply Shock: The halving reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation, increasing scarcity and driving price appreciation.
2. Market Momentum: Investors often respond to the halving event with increased enthusiasm, pushing prices higher in the months following the event.
3. Institutional Interest: In recent cycles, institutional adoption has accelerated post-halving, adding significant capital inflows to the market.

Key Takeaways for February 2025

Investors should approach February 2025 with cautious optimism. Historical and seasonal data suggest the month has strong potential for positive returns, particularly in the context of Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles. With an average return of 40.74% in past post-halving Februarys, investors might expect similar performance this year, barring any significant macroeconomic or regulatory headwinds.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s history provides a valuable lens through which to view its future performance. February 2025 is shaping up to be another positive month, driven by the same post-halving dynamics that have historically fueled impressive gains. Combining historical data performance with a positive regulatory environment, the incoming pro-Bitcoin administration, and the news that The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued a new guideline (ASU 2023-08) fundamentally changing how Bitcoin is accounted for (Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025), 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for Bitcoin. As always, investors should combine these insights with broader market analysis and remain prepared for Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

By leveraging the lessons of history and the patterns of seasonality, Bitcoin investors can make informed decisions as the market navigates this pivotal year.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

​ Discover how Bitcoin’s historical February performance and post-halving trends provide insights into what investors can expect in 2025. 

Earlier today, Coinbase announced the launch of “Bitcoin-Backed Loans” using Base, its native blockchain. But there’s one problem. (Actually, two.)

These loans are not backed by Bitcoin, nor are they even on the Bitcoin blockchain.

It’s disappointing that, in 2025, companies are still willingly omitting key details to mislead Bitcoin holders into giving up custody of their coins.

Here’s the truth: these loans are collateralized by cbBTC, Coinbase’s Bitcoin-wrapped product designed to compete with wBTC and tBTC. This is not Bitcoin. In fact, cbBTC is arguably the most centralized of these “wrapped” BTC tokens. To understand the trust assumptions associated with wrapped BTC, I recommend this excellent post by the Bitcoin Layers team: Analyzing tBTC Against wBTC and cbBTC.

Here’s the TL;DR:

“The BTC backing the cbBTC token is held in reserve wallets managed by Coinbase, a US-based centralized custodial provider. Coinbase holds funds backing cbBTC in cold storage wallets across a number of geographically distributed locations and additionally has insurance on funds they custody.”

Furthermore, instead of issuing these loans on a blockchain even remotely related to Bitcoin (such as Bitcoin sidechains or Bitcoin L2s), Coinbase is issuing them through Morpho Labs, a DeFi platform best described as an AAVE competitor. While Morpho is a well-established platform—and I don’t doubt its security—it has no connection to Bitcoin.

I, for one, look forward to seeing actual Bitcoin-backed loans issued on the Bitcoin network itself. Many L2 teams are working hard to make this a reality, striving to minimize trust assumptions—or even eliminate the need for bridging altogether (bullish!).

Why do we need native Bitcoin-backed loans in the first place? Consider this: many Bitcoiners today face stringent tax regulations that impose hefty liabilities on long-term holders who sell their Bitcoin to fund significant purchases like a house or a car. Taking out a loan backed by BTC allows individuals to avoid triggering these tax events.

Moreover, most Bitcoiners are confident that Bitcoin’s price will be significantly higher in the future than it is today. So why would anyone sell an asset with such promising long-term potential? Bitcoin-backed loans enable holders to retain exposure to Bitcoin’s upside while accessing the liquidity needed to meet life’s financial demands.

In today’s market, the options for Bitcoin-backed lending are limited. You can either rely on centralized companies (like the reputable team at Unchained) or turn to “DeFi” protocols, which are often centralized themselves and, in some cases, riskier than centralized alternatives like Unchained. However, there is currently no truly Bitcoin-native solution—no option for Bitcoiners to maintain custody of their coins while accessing loans.

Some companies, like Lava.xyz, are beginning to address this gap. However, their market share remains a small fraction of the volumes handled by existing DeFi platforms. (Keep an eye on Lava—they’re poised to make waves in 2025!)

One quote from the original announcement stood out to me:

“The integration of Bitcoin-backed loans on Coinbase is ‘TradFi in the front, DeFi in the back,’” said Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s vice president of product, in a statement to The Block.

Let’s call it what it really is: centralized in the front, and centralized in the back.

It’s time to leave these misleading offerings behind and bring true Bitcoin Finance (BTCfi) to users—not just marketing buzzwords and half-truths.

Instead of saying: Bitcoin backed on-chain loans let’s say: multisig-backed derivatives loans on a centralized chain.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Articles I write may discuss topics or companies that are part of my firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely my own and do not represent the opinions of my employer or its affiliates. I’m receiving no financial compensation for these takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

​ Not backed by real Bitcoin – not on the Bitcoin blockchain. We can do better.